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Introduction

Introduction. Objective: Develop regional ocean forecasting capability AU$15M co-investment for Phase 1 Partners: Bureau, CSIRO, Navy Launched 2003, Phase1 due for completion in early 2007

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Introduction

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  1. Introduction • Objective: Develop regional ocean forecasting capability • AU$15M co-investment for Phase 1 • Partners: Bureau, CSIRO, Navy • Launched 2003, • Phase1 due for completion in early 2007 • An ocean forecasting system for Australia, providing reliable and accurate ocean information for the national public good, enhancing the sustainability and management of our marine environment and ensuring safe and effective operations at sea • Phase 2 has been negotiated, near AU$17M further co-investment • http://www.cmar.csiro.au/bluelink

  2. Priorities • 1. Core operational ocean forecast model (OFAM) • Maintain world-class core system • 2. New Regional/Coastal Forecast System • Synergy with regional mesoLAPS, e.g. SE Aust • Applications drawn to GBR and NWS Regional System: coupled ocean-atmosphere (3-5km resolution) • Improved fine-scale nesting, e.g. for ROAM • 3. Enhanced relocatable ocean model • ROAM ↔ Navy • Other marine, coastal applications

  3. Priorities • 4. Coupling • Coupled ocean-atmosphere, e.g. TCs • Ecosystem/biogeochemistry • “new” weather prediction • 5. Observing system • Infrastructure for AusIOOS, initial contributions from IMOS • New data: satellites, CODAR, salinity, …

  4. Minimum resolution: ~100km ~10km resolution Ocean Forecasting Australia Model, OFAM • Global configuration of MOM4 • Eddy-resolving around Australia • 10 m vertical resolution to 200 m depth • Surface fluxes from ECMWF (for reanalyses) … every 10th grid point shown

  5. in situ T + S SLA + SST Model Observations Analysis SOOP XBT Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS Assimilates observations of SLA, SST, in situ T and S

  6. Observing System Experiments How important are different components of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) for ocean reanalysis? Experiment design • With-hold each component of the observing system • 6-month integrations (1st half of 2003 and 2006) • compare to with-held observations • treat BRAN1.5, with all observations assimilated, as the “truth”

  7. Assimilation of Argo/XBT and SST reduces the forecast error of SLA by ~50% compared to the assimilation of altimetry Assimilation of Altimetry and Argo only reduces the forecast error of SST by a small amount Observing System Experiments 2003

  8. Importance of SST Importance of ALTIMETRY Importance of Argo/XBT Observing System Experiments:Impact on upper ocean temperature (0-1000 m) • Depth average (0-1000 m) of the temperature error introduced by with-holding: •  all obs (top) • SST • Altimetry • Argo/XBT (bottom) …in 2003 (left) and 2006 (right); and the zonal average (left panels) in the Australian region.  All components offer a unique and essential contribution to the ocean reanalysis.

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