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ACE/RUS School and Symposium Corralling the Broadband Stampede

How Has and Is the (Video) Network Traffic Changing?. ACE/RUS School and Symposium Corralling the Broadband Stampede. Presented By. Tom Lewis, PE Vice President - Engineering. Video Traffic Trends. Are you in the video business? You are if 2/3rds of your Internet traffic is video

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ACE/RUS School and Symposium Corralling the Broadband Stampede

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  1. How Has and Is the (Video) Network Traffic Changing? ACE/RUS School and Symposium Corralling the Broadband Stampede Presented By Tom Lewis, PE Vice President- Engineering

  2. Video Traffic Trends • Are you in the video business? • You are if 2/3rds of your Internet traffic is video • Current and projected requirements for: • Managed IPTV (traditional Telco TV) • Unmanaged Internet Video • Planning for future, corralling the video stampede • Capacity planning, impact on flat-rate Internet model

  3. Managed IPTV • Multicast SD and HD • Historic Bandwidth requirements: • Backbone transport from Headend: 1Gbps or 2.5Gbps in past was adequate for avg SD/HD lineup • Access ~ 25Mbps minimum (2HD + SD + Internet) • Increased HD viewing primarily impacts Access • To compete with satellite, need to be able to deliver 6 simultaneous HD channels = 48 Mbps + Internet • This requires VDSL2 or FTTP

  4. Channel Lineup Multicast Bandwidth

  5. How is IPTV traffic changing? • New IPTV services require a significant amount of bandwidth for unicast traffic such as: • Video on Demand (VOD) • Timeshifted Viewing (Network DVR for select channels) • Microsoft Mediaroom Instant Channel Change (ICC) • Unicast Impact on Network • Transport backbone: need 10GE • Last Mile Access: Slight increase for ICC • Distribution rings: How many subscribers can be served via a single GE feed?

  6. Estimated Traffic in a Mediaroom Network for 500 Homes Unicast • This Conservative Model assumes the following • 500 Households • 70% of Households watching TV • 10% of viewers watching VOD • 5% of viewers watching timeshifted content • 3% of viewers in fast channel change 110 Mb/s 67 Mb/s 329 Mb/s 270 Mb/s Total Traffic = 776 Mbps In a modern IPTV Network unicast video bandwidth usage can quickly outpace traditional multicast usage

  7. Bandwidth Usage Versus Subscriber Counts

  8. Internet Streaming Video • We all know Internet Video traffic is exponentially increasing, but the rate of change is difficult to grasp. • Where does it end? • Good Sources for Internet Video traffic statistics • Cisco Visual Networking Index • Calix U.S. Rural Broadband Q4 2011 Report

  9. Internet Video Today • Calix report findings for Q4 2011: • Video streaming accounted for 67% of downstream traffic, and providers with 100% FTTP saw 78% • Netflix is by far largest component, at least 2/3 of all video • For comparison, browsing accounted for 19% downstream • P2P was only 1% • 5% of users accounted for more than 50% of Internet traffic • Fiber subs generate 2.67 times more traffic than DSL subs • Average monthly download was 12 GB. Fiber average was 28.6 GB per month. • Calix findings are consistent with N-Com’s recent analysis of client’s traffic.

  10. Sample Daily Aggregate Report from April 2012

  11. Sample Internet Traffic Report • Peak Usage around 9 PM. Peak usage is twice the average throughput.

  12. Cisco 2011 VNI Report • Busy Hour Internet traffic will grow 5-fold by 2015 vsavg traffic growing 4-fold • Peak traffic is 2.5 times the average throughput • Globally streaming video accounts for 50% of consumer Internet bandwidth, growing to 62% by 2015 • Internet video to TV will continue to grow at a rapid pace, increasing 17-fold by 2015. Internet video to TV will be over 16 percent of consumer Internet video traffic in 2015, up from 7 percent in 2010.

  13. Projecting Internet Video Growth • So where are we at on this roller coaster? • What percentage of subscribers are consuming Internet Video today? • From Calix report, 11% of subs generate 64% of traffic, more than 50GB monthly • Netflix movie ~ 2.5GB Source: Calix

  14. OTT Video Projection • We are still very early in the OTT adoption curve • If other 89% adopt OTT viewing pattern of today’s top 11%, would result in approximately 6 times today’s traffic. • In our analysis of client’s traffic, the average Netflix stream per session is less than 1 Mbps. As more viewing takes place on TVs and/or subscribers upgrade broadband speeds, this will transition to the Netflix “best’ rate of around 2.2Mbps for non-HD content. So another growth factor of approximately 2 times. • So as a guestimate, OTT traffic could increase by 6 x 2 = 12 times over coming years. 12 x todays monthly average of 12GB gives a possible future average of 144 GB monthly.

  15. But wait, there’s more…. • OTT is just the initial phase. Over coming years the entire video industry will transition from today’s CATV linear model to on-demand, “cloud TV” • According to Nielson, average individual American watches almost 5 hours of traditional TV every day, compared to 30 minutes of Internet video • Assume average home views 1.5 x 5 = 7.5 hours per day • In future, a cloud TV home could require 7.5 x 30 = 225 hours/month x 2.3 GB/hr for HD = 517.5 GB/mo

  16. And so we have Caps • Comcast, AT&T Uverse, CenturyLink and Suddenlink are all examples of providers that have implemented 250 GB monthly caps. • From the Comcast website: • To put this usage in perspective, 250 GB is the equivalent of: • downloading 62,500 songs (173 days worth of music); • uploading more than 25,000 high-resolution photos; or • streaming between about 100 to 800 hours of video (the range depends upon whether you're streaming studio-quality video or good-quality, standard-definition video, which have different bit rates depending upon the provider). • Caps from non-landline broadband providers: • Wildblue Exede plans max out at 25 GB • Verizon HomeFusion Fixed LTE service top plan is 30 GB – 24 hours of Netflix binge viewing

  17. Possible Industry Initiatives • Traffic growth must be linked to revenue growth • Possible Measures or Mitigation Methods • Caps • 1-800 model: content providers pay service provider to be cap-free • Subscriber usage based plans ($/MB) • Caching, or bring CDN provider into your network

  18. Observations • Key in sizing Internet uplinks is now the “primetime” 7 to 10 PM video viewing period. Maybe caps should only apply to downloads during these times? • In planning any network upgrades, have evolution path to ultimate future “cloud TV” bandwidth requirements. This needs to be considered in deciding between 1GE vs 10GE, 10GE vs WDM, etc. • OTT/Cloud TV impacts backhaul requirements, not Access network speeds. E.g., 200 subscribers each using 5 Mbps for video exhaust a single GE feed.

  19. Conclusions • We all watch way too much TV. Netflix growth rate and Mayan prophecy connection? • Begin routine monitoring of your Internet traffic usage, track growth trends • Have plans for gaining access to most economical Internet uplink providers that can support growth • Evaluate subscriber package modifications

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