Is All of this Just WISTful Thinking?

1. Is All of this Just WISTful Thinking? Presented by Richard A. Wagoner National Center for Atmospheric Research OFCM 2nd WIST Symposium December 4 – 6, 2000 Rockville, MD

2. How Will the WIST Initiative Manifest Itself in the Long Run? • Lots of effort now to bring advanced weather technology to bear on surface transportation • Where’s it all headed? • What’s the final balance of federal, state and private sector roles? • What are paradigm shifts we should watch for?

3. Fatalities Associated with U.S. AviationWind Shear Accidents Wind Shear R&D Pilot Training TDWR Pago Pago JFK, NY New Orleans Dallas Charlotte * * Final accident report on AA accident at Little Rock, AR not completed. May be wind shear with 10 fatalities.No TDWR system at Little Rock. Source: NTSB, NationalResearch Council

4. Advanced Weather Technology is Having a Major Effect on Aviation Operations But… • It has taken a long time --- 20 years • It takes a lot of $$$(tens of millions) • It takes a lot of major changesin the surface transportationinfrastructure • Communications • New sensors • Computer base • New operational decisionparadigms And… We’re just getting started Safety Efficiency Capacity

5. Partners for WIST Implementation FederalAgencies Private Sector Companies StateDOTS NationalLaboratories & Universities (Depts of Meteorology & Transportation Institutes)

6. History of Partnerships in Provision of WIST 15-Yr Period Federal State Private 1955 – 1970 1971 – 1985 1986 – 2000 2001 - 2015 ? ? ?

7. Partlycloudy Partlycloudy Sunny Showers Hi 65°FLo 44°F Hi 67°FLo 45°F Hi 71°FLo 47°F Hi 57°FLo 43°F Likely Paradigm Shifts During the Next Decade • Highly automated forecast process NEW INTEGRATEDFORECAST TECHNIQUES • Utilizes multiple model data • Utilizes real-time data • Fully automated • 0-10 day forecasts • More accurate than NWS official forecast 93% of the time Friday Saturday Sunday Monday

8. Likely Paradigm Shifts During the Next Decade • Highly automated forecast process • More and more emphasis on DSSs that mix weather, climate and other data sources

9. National Labs Universities Departments of MeteorologyTransportation Institutes Likely Paradigm Shifts During the Next Decade • Highly automated forecast process • More and more emphasis on DSSs that mix weather, climate and other data sources • Stronger emphasis on WIST-related R&D at the federal level

10. Likely Paradigm Shifts During the Next Decade • Highly automated forecast process • More and more emphasis on DSSs that mix weather, climate and other data sources • Stronger emphasis on WIST-related R&D at the federal level • National/regional analyses & forecasts • National sensor systems • -- satellite-- radar-- ASOS • Basic Forecasts down to zone level • No road weather specific forecast • Climatological data archive • LDADS interface for local data • Shift toward provisionof core weather/climate information at thefederal level

11. Likely Paradigm Shifts During the Next Decade Pacific Northwest Consortium / rWeather • Highly automated forecast process • More and more emphasis on DSSs that mix weather, climate and other data sources • Stronger emphasis on WIST-related R&D at the federal level • Shift toward provisionof core weather/climate information at thefederal level ATWIS Utah mesonet • Strong shift toward regional consortia to deliver WIST information locally

12. If all of these paradigms materialize, what are the benefits to the players and end users? • Federal agencies focus on core capabilities: • Management of core R&D that flows down the food chain for delivery by consortia • Core service delivery that provides basic weather, climate, and road-related data • National infrastructure (sensors, communications, etc.) • Coordinating and establishing national standards • Coordinating WIST user requirements … what they do best

13. If all of these paradigms materialize, what are the benefits to the players and end users? • Private sector taps into vibrant market for tailored decision support systems • Provides value-added layer to core technologies • Provides service in most cases rather than systems • Competitive, but niche marketing will prevail • Learning curve associated with consortia concept (public - private partnerships) … what they do best

14. If all of these paradigms materialize, what are the benefits to the players and end users? • State DOTS govern the direction and focus of the consortia • Cluster of states in most cases (economies of scale) • Focus for detailed definition of user requirements • Interstate obstacles need to be addressed … what they do best

15. If all of these paradigms materialize, what are the benefits to the players and end users? • R&D organizations develop the core technologies needed for successful WIST implementation • National laboratories lead effort • Focus on R&D that is too expensive for private sector or state support • Free and open access to results of R&D • Works with state consortia directly at times • Maximum coupling with universities • Emphasize participation by Transportation Institutes • Universities provide regional focus for mesoscale modeling and addressing local phenomena … what they do best

16. If all of these paradigms materialize, what are the benefits to the players and end users? • End users are the real beneficiaries • Tens of thousands of forecasts possible in a region vice several hundred as a result of automation and new technologies • New decision support system focus will provide most tailored information possible • Competitive market will keep service costs modest

17. Richard A. Wagoner NCAR / Research Applications Program 303-497-8404 wagoner@ucar.edu