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Changes in breeding phenology of arctic-breeding shorebirds:

Changes in breeding phenology of arctic-breeding shorebirds: a comparative study over two decades. Eunbi Kwon 1 , David B Lank 2 and Brett K. Sandercock 1 1 Division of Biology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, USA

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Changes in breeding phenology of arctic-breeding shorebirds:

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  1. Changes in breeding phenology of arctic-breeding shorebirds: a comparative study over two decades Eunbi Kwon1, David B Lank2 and Brett K. Sandercock1 1Division of Biology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, USA 2Centre for Wildlife Ecology, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada Arthur Morris

  2. Responses to climate change in physical and biological systems (1970-2004) 95% of 829 physical changes 90% of ~28,800 biological changes > in the direction expected as a response to warming > greater than the natural internal variability Rosenzweig et al. 2008

  3. Arctic-breeding migratory shorebirds Arctic-breeding migratory shorebirds Arctic-breeding migratory shorebirds Arctic-breeding migratory shorebirds 1. Highly seasonal environment – snow cover 2. Greatest climate change is expected 3. High energetic requirements of migratory movements 4. Timing of long-distance movements constraint life-history traits 5. Spatial heterogeneity in patterns of climate change 6. High survival and low fecundity rate slow recovery from environmental change

  4. Western Sandpiper (Calidrismauri) Semipalmated Sandpiper (Calidrispusilla) ▪ Long distance migrants (equator ~ arctic) ▪ Similar breeding ecology ▪ Different migration routes and distribution range

  5. Breeding ground of WESA & SESA near Nome, AK Arctic Shorebird Demographic Network

  6. Has the breeding phenology of Western and Semipalmated Sandpipers been shifted over the last 18 years? Does the local climate condition explain the variations in breeding phenology and breeding performance?

  7. Results –trend in local temperature May - July 95% CI Daily Mean Temperature (C°) YEAR

  8. Results –trend in local precipitation

  9. Results –temporal change in laying date SESA WESA •between YEAR *** •between SPECIES ***

  10. Results –temperature explains laying date ** B=-1.374 Laying date ** B=-1.321 Mean Temperature (May – July; C°)

  11. Results –Nest density and nesting success *** *** SESA -.853 1994 1995 WESA -.294 2010 1996 1993

  12. Result summary Has the breeding phenology of Western and Semipalmated Sandpipers been shifted over the last 18 years? - Significant variation existed, but not a linear trend over time • Does the local climate condition explain the variation in • breeding phenology and breeding performance? • - Mean temperature is the best predictor for the laying date of • both species Nest Density Current Precip. Current Temp. Nesting Success Previous Precip. Previous Temp. Prey availability

  13. Acknowledgements Simon Fraser University Samantha Franks Willow English Arctic Shorebird Demographics Network Richard B. Lanctot River Gates Stephen Brown 2011 Field technician Erica Escajeda Melanie Wilson Thomas Esson

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