Congressional Elections: Looking at Some Basics

1. Congressional Elections:Looking at Some Basics Dennis W. Johnson

2. Congressional Campaigns • In House races, far fewer resources than senate, gubernatorial, and certainly presidential campaigns

3. Congressional Campaigns • In House races, far fewer resources than senate, gubernatorial, and certainly presidential campaigns • House incumbents may have a $1 million to spend; challengers often far less

4. Congressional Campaigns • In House races, far fewer resources than senate, gubernatorial, and certainly presidential campaigns • House incumbents may have a $1 million to spend; challengers often far less • House incumbents return to office about 90-95 percent of time.

5. Senate Races • Average Senate campaign will spend about $5 million; but varies widely ($30 million in California).

6. Senate Races • Average Senate campaign will spend about $5 million; but varies widely ($30 million in California). • With those resources, Senate campaign can afford full range of communication resources. Unlike House candidate.

7. In a Presidential Cycle . . . • Not same voters as in 2006 (or 2002 voters for a Senator running for re-election)

8. In a Presidential Cycle . . . • Not same voters as in 2006 • Airwaves will be saturated

9. Ways Congressional Campaigns Communicate • In major media markets, House candidates can’t afford TV

10. Ways Congressional Campaigns Communicate • In major media markets, House candidates can’t afford TV • For House: Direct mail; radio; telemarketing; newspaper; billboards; even show leather. Old-school communications.

11. Ways Congressional Campaigns Communicate • In major media markets, can’t afford TV • Direct mail; radio; telemarketing; newspaper; billboards; even shoe leather. Old-school communications. • Little help from free media

12. Campaigning Online • A Congressional campaign – House or Senate -- would be foolish not to have online resources --

13. Campaigning Online • A Congressional campaign – House or Senate -- would be foolish not to have online resources – • And a campaign would be foolish to rely solely on online resources.

14. Campaigning Online • In House races, don’t expect sophisticated online presence, like seen at presidential level.

15. Campaigning Online • In House races, don’t expect sophisticated online presence, like seen at presidential level. • In Senate race, campaigns should be able to mount sophisticated online presence – not presidential level, but certainly sufficient

16. Cardinal Principle of Campaigning • The candidate is responsible for the conduct and execution of every aspect of the campaign.

17. Cardinal Principle of Campaigning • The candidate is responsible for the conduct and execution of every aspect of the campaign. • E-mails, contents of blogs, links to external sources, social networking sites, etc.

18. Nationalization of the Contest • Anticipate national 527s, rogue blogging sites, YouTube postings, text-messaging.

19. Nationalization of the Contest • Anticipate national 527s, rogue blogging sites, YouTube postings, text-messaging • Your job: put all this in context for readers—who’s responsible for this attack, what is this innocuous-sounding organization, who are these people?

20. What You Should Do • Hold online campaigning to the same critical standard as pre-online campaigning.

21. What You Should Do • Hold online campaigning to the same critical standard as pre-online campaigning. • Sign up for every possible e-mail and RSS feed.

22. What You Should Do • Hold online campaigning to the same critical standard as pre-online campaigning. • Sign up for every possible e-mail and RSS feed. • Understand that the competing candidates are but two voices in the cacophony of this campaign.

23. What You Should Do • Finally – unless you tell the story, congressional elections will be lost to your readership, drowned out in the noise of presidential campaigning.