Forecast Background ENSO update Current State of the global climate SST Forecasts

1. Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, July 2014 Initial ConditionsIssued 14 July 2014 • Forecast Background • ENSO update • Current State of the global climate • SST Forecasts • Regional Rainfall Forecast maps • Summary

2. CPC ENSO Update • CPC ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch • Synopsis:The chance of El Niño is about 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80% during the fall and early winter. (Updated on July 10, 2014) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml

3. Current State of the Global Ocean Last Month SST Anomaly (top) for June 2014 and Tendency (bottom) for June minus May Positive SST anomalies persisted over much of the Indian Ocean. Sea surface temperatures (SST) are above-average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Above-average SST persisted over South Atlantic. SST tendency was positive across the southern Indian Ocean. Changes in equatorial SST anomalies were positive across the Central and East Pacific.

4. Current State of the Global Ocean Last Week Weekly SST Anomaly 06 July – 12 July 2014 and Tendency for 06 July – 12 July minus 29 June – 05 July 2014 Positive SST anomalies were present over the southern Indian Ocean. SST was above-average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Negative SST tendency was observed across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Negative SST tendency was observed over eastern Atlantic and Indian Oceans.

5. OLR Anomaly, June 2014 Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) was observed across the Maritime Continent, portions of Central Pacific, Central America and Caribbean regions. Precipitation was suppressed (orange-red shading) over many parts of India, extending into northern Indian Ocean, over parts of Southwest Pacific and North America.

6. Low Level 850 mb Wind Anomaly Anomalous low-level westerly winds were observed across the eastern equatorial Pacific and equatorial Atlantic. Anomalous southerly winds over northern Indian Ocean, turning into southeasterlies over the Arabian Sea may have contributed to the observed below-average rainfall over parts India.

7. Upper Level 200 mb Wind Anomaly Easterly wind anomalies were observed in the upper-level (200-hPa) over the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, mostly south of the equator..

8. Monitoring the Madden Julian Oscillation Time The ensemble GFS forecast indicates weakening of the MJO signal during Week-1 and Week-2. Longitude

9. The IOD index was negative during early June.

10. Summary of State of the Global Climate in June 2014 • ENSO neutral condition continued with OIv2 NINO3.4 value of 0.5oC in June 2014. • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are above-average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. • SST was above-average in the south Atlantic and much of the Indian Oceans. The IOD index was slightly below-average during early July. • Enhanced precipitation was observed across the Maritime Continent, portions of Central Pacific, Central America and Caribbean regions. • Precipitation was suppressed over many parts of India, extending into northern Indian Ocean, over parts of Southwest Pacific and North America

11. IRI/CPC NINO3.4 Forecast Plume • Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate more warming coming in the months ahead, leading to sustained El Niño conditions by the middle of northern summer.

12. Global SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast Initial Conditions 01 – 08 July 2014 Aug - Oct 2014 Nov 2014 - Jan 2015 Caution: Ocean areas with skill less than 0.3 are shaded in gray Sep - Nov 2014 Dec 2014 - Feb 2015 Oct - Dec 2014 CFS.v2 predicts warmer than normal SST across equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the Indian Ocean. Additional forecast resources are found here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/index.shtml http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/

13. Global SST Outlook: NMME (top panel) & IMME (bottom panel) Sep - Nov 2014 Oct - Dec 2014 Aug - Oct 2014 NMME IMME

15. IOD Outlook (source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology) The IOD index is expected to remain near-average.

16. Rainfall Guidance, Africa: NMME, Masked Standardized Anomaly, (01 – 08 July 2014 IC) Gray shade indicates areas where skill is lower than 0.3. Aug - Oct 2014 Sep - Nov 2014 The forecasts call for climatology over much of Africa, except for a slight tilt in the odds to favor above-average rainfall over portions of the Gulf of Guinea and Sahel regions, during the Aug-Oct and Sep-Nov seasons. There is also a slight tilt in the odds to favor above average rainfall over southern Somalia and eastern Kenya during the Oct-Dec and Nov-Jan seasons. Oct - Dec 2014 Nov 2014 - Jan 2015 Individual model forecasts can be found here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/nmme/nmme1.shtml

17. Rainfall Guidance, CAM and Caribbean: NMME, Masked Standardized Anomaly, (01 – 08 July 2014 IC) Gray shade indicates areas where skill is lower than 0.3. Aug - Oct 2014 Sep - Nov 2014 The forecasts call for a tilt in the odds to favor below-average rainfall over portions of the central America and Caribbean region. Oct - Dec 2014 Nov 2014 - Jan 2015 Individual model forecasts can be found here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/nmme/nmme1.shtml

18. Rainfall Guidance, South America: NMME, Masked Standardized Anomaly, (01 – 08 July 2014 IC) Gray shade indicates areas where skill is lower than 0.3. Aug - Oct 2014 Sep - Nov 2014 The forecasts call for a tilt in the odds to favor below-average rainfall across northern South America. In contrast, there is a slight tilt in the odds to favor above average rainfall over portions of southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northern Argentina. Oct - Dec 2014 Nov 2014 - Jan 2015 Individual model forecasts can be found here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/nmme/nmme1.shtml

19. Rainfall Guidance, Central Asia: NMME, Masked Standardized Anomaly, (01 – 08 July 2014 IC) Gray shade indicates areas where skill is lower than 0.3. Aug - Oct 2014 Sep - Nov 2014 The forecasts call for climatology over much of Central Asia, except for a tilt in the odds to favor below-average rainfall over portions of northwestern India and during Aug to Oct and Oct to Dec seasons. Oct - Dec 2014 Nov 2014 - Jan 2015 Individual model forecasts can be found here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/nmme/nmme1.shtml

20. Summary • Neutral ENSO state continued to prevail in June. Above-average Sea surface temperatures (SST) was observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Positive SST anomalies persisted over the central southern Indian Ocean. • The chance of El Niño is about 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80% during the fall and early winter. • The masked standardized precipitation anomaly forecasts, call for a slight tilt in the odds to favor above-average over portions of the Gulf of Guinea and Sahel regions, southern Somalia, eastern Kenya. In contrast, forecasts call for a tilt in the odds to favor below-average rainfall over northern India, and portions of Central America and northern South America. • Additional forecast resources can be found here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/index.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/ http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/