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Math & Basketball: Astronomy used to be just watching pretty stars, too

Math & Basketball: Astronomy used to be just watching pretty stars, too. Dean Oliver Author, Basketball on Paper Consultant to the Seattle Supersonics Using Sports to Teach Math Symposium Seattle, WA May 13, 2006. Some History. Every science we have today was once just “interesting”

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Math & Basketball: Astronomy used to be just watching pretty stars, too

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  1. Math & Basketball: Astronomy used to be just watching pretty stars, too Dean Oliver Author, Basketball on Paper Consultant to the Seattle Supersonics Using Sports to Teach Math Symposium Seattle, WA May 13, 2006

  2. Some History • Every science we have today was once just “interesting” • Chemistry • Biology • Astronomy • Finance and economics • Physics • Interesting + math = science • Math = Science - Interesting Dean Oliver deano@rawbw.com

  3. Language and logic first… • Score a game Dean Oliver deano@rawbw.com

  4. …Then counting… • How many lines? • How many lines with a score? • How many touches? • How many post-ups? • How many offensive rebounds off missed free throws? Dean Oliver deano@rawbw.com

  5. …And Analysis • Same number of possessions… • Equivalence scale on possessions • Per available rebound • Basketball on Paper • Points per possession • Four Factors • Effective shooting percentage • Turnovers per possession • Offensive rebounding percentage • Free throw rate Dean Oliver deano@rawbw.com

  6. Stories to tell • Grades • Is ___ the next Michael Jordan? • Who should we draft? • Is __ a good coach? • Tactics • Why so many offensive rebounds? • Is offense better when forcing more touches? • Should we double team the post? • Is it easier to shoot an open jump shot from 3pt range or a contested one from 2pt range? • Financial • Should a team pay more to win? • When do players get their big paycheck? Dean Oliver deano@rawbw.com

  7. The Possession Framework • Possessions are equal • What you do per possession is what matters • Possession ends: • Missed shot rebounded by defense • Made field goal, no free throw • Turnover • Made last free throw • Possession formula: • (FGA – FGM – OR) + FGM + TOV + 0.4*FTA Dean Oliver deano@rawbw.com

  8. Floor% and Play% • Floor%: Percentage of possessions on which there is a score • Scoring Possessions/Possessions • Play%: Percentage of “plays” on which there is a score • Scoring Possessions/Plays Dean Oliver deano@rawbw.com

  9. Four Factors • Effective Field Goal Percentage • (FGM + 0.5 * FG3M)/FGA • Turnover Percentage • TOV/Poss • Offensive Rebounding Percentage • OR/(OR + OppDR) • Free Throw Ratio • FTM/FGA Dean Oliver deano@rawbw.com

  10. Test! • Seattle 1998 • eFG%: 52.1% • FT%: 72% • TOV%: 15.7% • LA Lakers 1998 • eFG%: 51.9% • FT%: 68% • TOV%: 16.2% • Better offense? Dean Oliver deano@rawbw.com

  11. Answers • Lakers had better offense • 111.9 pts/100 poss to 111.4 • How? • Shot worse from everywhere • Rebounded worse • Turned ball over more • But… • Shot 600 more free throws! • More shots of overall higher percentage shot Dean Oliver deano@rawbw.com

  12. More Framework: Estimating Wins • Wins come from point difference (points/possession) • Wins ~ • A*(points – points allowed) + 0.5 • B*(pts/poss – pts allowed/poss) + 0.5 • pointsC/(pointsC + points allowedC) Dean Oliver deano@rawbw.com

  13. Wins from a Bell Curve Dean Oliver deano@rawbw.com

  14. Bell Curve Principles • Consistency matters • Playing up or down to opponent matters • Don’t blow teams out by too much • Unbiased referees change odds Dean Oliver deano@rawbw.com

  15. Player Evaluation • What makes a good player? • Almost the same as what makes a good team • Roles/Interactions affect everything • Volume of shots • Communication • Coordination Dean Oliver deano@rawbw.com

  16. Decreasing Marginal Returns Dean Oliver deano@rawbw.com

  17. Optimize Lakers’ Offense Unbalanced offense More balanced offense Dean Oliver deano@rawbw.com

  18. Overall Player Ratings • “Ratings” aren’t objective • What are you measuring? • Offense, defense, (in)tangibles Dean Oliver deano@rawbw.com

  19. Other Projects • Best player to step up to help offense • What to emphasize on defense • How will players develop? How to help them? • What tactics to take against good teams? • What tendencies do teams have to take advantage of? • How to predict player performance from another league? Dean Oliver deano@rawbw.com

  20. Work with 82games.com • They do research projects • Ahead by 3, foul or defend? • Does Steve Nash help his teammates? • What does Kobe Bryant do in the clutch? • How likely is it to make a shot after making the previous one? Dean Oliver deano@rawbw.com

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