Planning and managing the project

1. Planning and managing the project • Tracking project progress • Project personnel and organization • Effort and schedule estimation • Risk management • Using process modeling with project planning Chapter 3

2. Tracking project progress • Do you understand customer problem and needs? • Can you design a system to solve customer problem or satisfy customer needs? • How long will it take you to develop the system? • How much will it cost to develop the system? Chapter 3

3. Project deliverables • Documents • Demonstrations of function • Demonstrations of subsystems • Demonstrations of accuracy • Demonstrations of reliability, performance or security Chapter 3

4. Milestones and activities • Activity: takes place over a period of time • Milestone: completion of an activity -- a particular point in time • Precursor: event or set of events that must occur in order for an activity to start • Duration: length of time needed to complete an activity • Due date: date by which an activity must be completed Chapter 3

5. Activity graph for building a house Chapter 3

6. Chapter 3

7. Chapter 3

8. Chapter 3

9. Activity graph with durations Chapter 3

10. Slack or float time Slack time = available time - real time = latest start time - earliest start time Chapter 3

11. Chapter 3

12. CPM bar chart Chapter 3

13. Sample work breakdown structure Chapter 3

14. Gantt chart Chapter 3

15. Resource histogram Chapter 3

16. Tracking planned vs. actual expenditures Chapter 3

17. Project personnel • Key activities requiring personnel: • requirements analysis • system design • program design • program implementation • testing • training • maintenance • quality assurance Chapter 3

18. Choosing personnel • ability to perform work • interest in work • experience with • similar applications • similar tools or languages • similar techniques • similar development environments • training • ability to communicate with others • ability to share responsibility • management skills Chapter 3

19. Communications complexity Chapter 3

20. Work styles • Extroverts: tell their thoughts • Introverts: ask for suggestions • Intuitives: base decisions on feelings • Rationals: base decisions on facts, options Chapter 3

21. Work styles Chapter 3

22. Project organization • Depends on • backgrounds and work styles of team members • number of people on team • management styles of customers and developers • Examples: • Chief programmer team • Egoless approach Chapter 3

23. Chapter 3

24. Effort estimation • Expert judgment • analogy • proportion • Delphi technique • Wolverton model • Algorithmic methods: E = (a + bSc) m(X) • Walston and Felix model: E = 5.25S 0.91 • Bailey and Basili model: E = 5.5 + 0.73S1.16 Chapter 3

25. Chapter 3

26. Chapter 3

27. Bailey-Basili technique • Minimize standard error estimate to produce an equation such as: • E = 5.5 + 0.73S1.16 • Adjust initial estimate based on the ratio of errors. • If R is the ratio between the actual effort, E, and the predicted effort, E’, • then the effort adjustment is defined as • ERadj = R – 1 if R> 1 • = 1 – 1/R if R < 1 • Then adjust the initial effort estimate E: • Eadj = (1 + ERadj)E if R> 1 • = E/(1 + ERadj) if R < 1 Chapter 3

28. Chapter 3

29. COCOMO model: stages of development • application composition: • prototyping to resolve high-risk user interface issues • size estimates in object points • early design: • to explore alternative architectures and concepts • size estimates in function points • postarchitecture: • development has begun • size estimates in lines of code Chapter 3

30. Chapter 3

31. Table 3.10. Application point complexity levels. For Screens For Reports Number and source of data tables Number and source of data tables Number of Total < 4 Total < 8 Total 8+ Number of Total < 4 Total < 8 Total 8+ views (<2 (2-3 (>3 sections (<2 (2-3 (>3 contained server, server, server, >5 contained server, server, 3- server, 3-5 client) 5 client) >5 <3 <3 client) client) client) client) <3 simple simple medium 0 or 1 simple simple medium 3 - 7 simple medium difficult 2 or 3 simple medium difficult 8 + medium difficult difficult 4 + medium difficult difficult Chapter 3

32. Table 3.11. Complexity weights for application points. Object type Simple Medium Difficult Screen 1 2 3 Report 2 5 8 3GL component - - 10 Chapter 3

33. Machine learning techniques • Example: case-based reasoning • user identifies new problem as a case • system retrieves similar cases from repository • system reuses knowledge from previous cases • system suggests solution for new case • Example: neural network • cause-effect network “trained” with data from past history Chapter 3

34. Evaluating models • Mean magnitude of relative error (MMRE) • absolute value of mean of [(actual - estimate)/actual] • goal: should be .25 or less • Pred(x/100): percentage of projects for which estimate is within x% of the actual • goal: should be .75 or greater for x = .25 Chapter 3

35. Chapter 3

36. Changes in estimation Chapter 3

37. Effort distribution (Brooks, Yourdon) Chapter 3

38. Risk management requirements • Risk impact: the loss associated with the event • Risk probability: the likelihood that the event will occur • Risk control: the degree to which we can change the outcome Risk exposure = (risk probability) x (risk impact) Chapter 3

39. Steps in risk management Chapter 3

40. Example of risk exposure calculation Chapter 3

41. Three strategies for risk reduction • avoiding the risk: change requirements for performance or functionality • transferring the risk: transfer to other system, or buy insurance • assuming the risk: accept and control it risk leverage = difference in risk exposure divided by cost of reducing the risk Chapter 3

42. Boehm’s top ten risk items • Personnel shortfalls • Unrealistic schedules and budgets • Developing the wrong functions • Developing the wrong user interfaces • Gold-plating • Continuing stream of requirements changes • Shortfalls in externally-performed tasks • Shortfalls in externally-furnished components • Real-time performance shortfalls • Straining computer science capabilities Chapter 3

43. project scope project schedule project team organization technical description of system project standards and procedures quality assurance plan configuration management plan documentation plan data management plan resource management plan test plan training plan security plan risk management plan maintenance plan Project plan contents Chapter 3

44. Digital Alpha AXP: Enrollment management model • Establish an appropriately large shared vision • Delegate completely and elicit specific commitments from participants • Inspect vigorously and provide supportive feedback • Acknowledge every advance and learn as the program progresses Chapter 3

45. Enrollment management Chapter 3

46. Alpha project organization Chapter 3

47. Lockheed Martin: Accountability modeling • Matrix organization • Each engineer belongs to a functional unit based on type of skill • Integrated product development team • Combines people from different functional units into interdisciplinary work unit • Each activity tracked using cost estimation, critical path analysis, schedule tracking • Earned value a common measure for progress Chapter 3

48. Accountability model Chapter 3

49. Sample activity roadmap Chapter 3

50. Anchoring milestones • Objectives: Why is the system being developed? • Milestones and schedules: What will be done by when? • Responsibilities: Who is responsible for a function? • Approach: How will the job be done, technically and managerially? • Resources: How much of each resource is needed? • Feasibility: Can this be done, and is there a good business reason for doing it? Chapter 3