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The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe

The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe. Camilla Geels 1 and Carsten Ambelas Skjøth 2 1 Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Denmark. 2 National Pollen and Aerobiology Research Unit, University of Worcester, UK. With contributions from

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The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe

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  1. The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe Camilla Geels1 and Carsten Ambelas Skjøth 2 1Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Denmark. 2 National Pollen and Aerobiology Research Unit, University of Worcester, UK. With contributions from Ole Hertel, Jesper H. Christensen, Steen Gyldenkærne, Thomas Ellermann, Helle Vibeke Andersen, Jørgen Brandt Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Denmark.

  2. Link between the trends in human population and NH3 use throughout the twentieth century: The Haber-Bosch process “the most important invention of the 20th century” made it possible to produce ammonia (NH3) from hydrogen and nitrogen Converts nitrogen into a bioavailable form! From: How a century of ammonia synthesis changed the world Erisman et al., Nature Geoscience 1, 636 - 639 (2008).

  3. NH3 mission changes globally and in Europe: European Environment Agency (EEA).

  4. Current regional CTM studies of NH3: BUT: NH3 emissions from agricultural production are very sensitive to climatic drivers (temperature, water availability).A central question in the ECLAIRE project is:“Will climate warming increase NH3 emissions and to what extend will this hinder NH3 mitigation efforts?”A different approach is needed. Annual emission inventories Based on national emissions factors. Standard temporal profiles.

  5. The Danish Dynamic NH3 emission model Was originally developed for Denmark[1,2] – now extended to part of Europe[3]. Based on: 1.) 16 different functions describing the temporal variation in NH3 emissions from various activities. 2.) information on number and type of animals, type of crop, sale of manure/fertilizer etc. So this is required on as high spatial resolution as possible. [1] Skjøth et al,(2004) Implementing a dynamical ammonia emission parameterization in the large-scale air pollution model ACDEP109, D06306, doi:10.1029/2003JD003895. [2] Gyldenkærne et al (2005) A dynamical ammonia emission parameterization for use in air pollution models, JGR, 110, D07108, doi:10.1029/2004JD005459. [3] Skjøth et al (2011). Spatial and temporal variations in ammonia emissions - a freely accessible model code for Europe: Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 5221-5236.

  6. Backbone of the dynamic ammonia model [1] • Point sources: emission from stables and manure storages depends on outdoor/indoor temperature and ventilation[2] • Pigs/chicken requires a high minimum temperature • Cattle manages relatively low temperatures • The farmers use heating/ventilation to keep the animals happy … • Area sources: emissions from agricultural fields depends on e.g. crop growth/application of manure described by Gauss functions[2] – also a function of T. • Local temperature provided by meteorological data used in the CTM model. • Usually scaled to official annual emissions, so only intra-annual (seasonal/diurnal) emission variation used…. [1] Skjøth et al,(2004) Implementing a dynamical ammonia emission parameterization in the large-scale air pollution model ACDEP109, D06306, doi:10.1029/2003JD003895. [2] Gyldenkærne et al (2005) A dynamical ammonia emission parameterization for use in air pollution models, JGR, 110, D07108, doi:10.1029/2004JD005459.

  7. Example from Denmark – change in seasonal profile due to development in agricultural sector (1985-2003) [4] Fig 3. Fig 1. Fig 2. Change in Danish regulation [4] Skjøth et al (2008), JAWMA, Footprints on ammoniaconcentrations from Environmental regulations, JAWMA, 58: 1158-1165.

  8. Application of the Danish Ammonia Modelling System: DAMOS[5,6,7] -regional to local scales. Covered by existing emission model 150 km x 150 km 50 km x 50 km OML-DEP[7] ~ 17 km x 17 km DEHM[6] ~ 6 km x 6 km 400 m x 400 m [5] Geels et al, (2012) Improved modelling of atmospheric ammonia over Denmark using the coupled modelling system DAMOS: Biogeosciences, 9, 2625-2647. [6] Brandt et al (2012). An integrated model study for Europe and North America using the Danish EulerianHemispheric Model with focus on intercontinental transport of air pollution: Atmos. Environ., Atmos. Environ., 53, 156-176. [7] Sommer et al (2009) Validation of model calculation of ammonia deposition in the neighbourhood of a poultry farm using measured NH3 concentrations and N deposition: Atmos. Environ., 43, 915-920.

  9. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Weekly NH3 concentration at Lindet.[5] DAMOS: Corr=0.72 Bias=0.11 DEHM Corr=0.67 Bias=0.64 • Strong seasonal cycle captured by both DAMOS and DEHM[5] • Overestimating some spring peaks[5] • Week-to-week variability also captured[5] • DAMOS closer to measured level[5] [5] Geels et al, (2012) Improved modelling of atmospheric ammonia over Denmark using the coupled modelling system DAMOS: Biogeosciences, 9, 2625-2647.

  10. The new sensitivity study carried out in ECLAIRE (WP6): • Analysing the effect of temperature variations: • From location to location • Due to climate change • The dynamic NH3 emissions model forced with hourly bias corrected climate data (based on a data fusion of ENSEMBLES climate data and reanalyses meteorology). New paper in ACP: The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe by Skjøth and Geels Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 117–128, 2013

  11. Test case: A storage related to a pig stable facility with 1000 animals - with the same production methods as in Denmark. Placed throughout the domain – so forced with different temperatures.

  12. Spatial variations in NH3 emission (standard Danish storage moved to other locations). 2007 Note the diff. within GE mountainous regions Relative to mean 2006-2010 at Tange in Dk.

  13. Annual emission from storage in a pig production facility with 1000 animals using average Danish production methods and exposed to different European climatic conditions in the years 2007 and 2010– important for emission ceilings …

  14. The climate ”penalty” on NH3 emissions(standard Danish storage moved to other locations). 2087 relative to 2007 2087 relative to 2010

  15. Conclusions and outlook (1): • Today – often one national emission factor is used (for several year). This[6] study shows: • Emissions can vary with 20% by changing geographical location within a country due to overall variations in climate. Largest uncertainties are seen for large countries like UK, Germany and France. • Warmer years give higher NH3 emissions than colder years. Annual variations in overall climate can at specific locations cause uncertainties in the range of 20%. • Climate change will in general increase the emissions with 0-40%, in central to northern Europe – so yes the increase in emissions might hinder mitigations effects…. • The “climate penalty” has political implications for international regulation both now and in the future – how should we define and evaluate emissions ceilings and should “warmer” countries be allowed to emit more …? [6]The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe Skjøth and Geels (2013) Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 117–128.

  16. Conclusions and outlook (2): Possible way to include this in models: include dynamical calculations of the ammonia emissions. The dynamic NH3 model will be part of a proposed architecture for handling the climate-dependence of NH3 fluxes in models.On-going work in the ECLAIRE project. Described in the paper: Towards a climate-dependent paradigm of ammonia emission and deposition, By Sutton et al., Phil. Trans. Royal Society B vol. 368 no. 1621, 2013.

  17. Thank you for your attention!- and contact us if you would like to get the code. Acknowledgements: ECLAIRE (FP7), ECOCLIM (Dan. Res. Council) and VKR-foundation Contacts: Carsten Ambelas Skjøth (c.skjoth@worc.ac.dk) & Camilla Geels (cag@dmu.dk)

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