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Appendix

Appendix. Reanalysis Planning Current CFS. Operational August 2004 Frozen system Reforecast data base Twice daily runs (60/month). Noah LSM Testing Hierarchy at NCEP. For every new physics advance/implementation. 1D uncoupled column model

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Appendix

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  1. Appendix

  2. Reanalysis PlanningCurrent CFS • Operational August 2004 • Frozen system • Reforecast data base • Twice daily runs (60/month)

  3. Noah LSM Testing Hierarchy at NCEP For every new physics advance/implementation • 1D uncoupled column model • at individual surface-flux stations from field programs • 3D uncoupled land model regionally and globally • Joint NCEP-NASA N. American and Global Land Data Assimilation Systems (NLDAS, GLDAS) • 3D coupled mesoscale model • Joint NCEP-NCAR Unified Noah LSM for the WRF mesoscale model • 3D coupled medium-range global model: • NCEP atmosphere/land Global Forecast System (GFS) • 3D coupled seasonal climate global model: • NCEP coupled atmosphere/ocean/land seasonal-range global Climate Forecast System (CFS)

  4. Observations NASA-NOAA-DOD JCSDA AMSR, GOES, AIRS, JASON, WindSat, MODIS Advanced ODA Techniques Satellite (AVHRR, JASON, QuikSCAT) In situ (ARGO, Buoys, Ships) Data Cutoff CFS: 2 week data cutoff RTOFS: 24 hour data cutoff OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION OCEAN FORECAST CLIMATE FORECAST CFS-GODAS NCO/ODA EMC NOPP-JPL (ECCO) RT-OFS-GODAE NOPP EMC Shared history, coding, and data processing OPNL OCEAN FORECASTS Climate Forecast System Real-Time Ocean Forecast System HYCOM  HOME MOM-3  MOM-4  HOME http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/ http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/

  5. Ocean Model MOMv3 quasi-global 1ox1o (1/3o in tropics) 40 levels Atmospheric Model GFS (2003) T62 64 levels Seasonal to Interannual Prediction at NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) Reanalysis-2 3DVAR T62L28 update of the NCEP-NCAR R1 GODAS 3DVAR XBT TAO etc Argo Salinity (syn.) (TOPEX/Jason-1) D. Behringer

  6. Standard or operational GODAS • Temperature profiles from Argo, XBTs, TAO moorings • Depth of assimilation is750 m. Deep GODAS-X • Temperature profiles from Argo (2200), XBTs (750), TAO (500) moorings • Depth of assimilation is2200 m. Shallow profiles (XBT, TAO) are augmented with climatology. Standard vs. Deep assimilation Two long (1980-2005) experiments

  7. Standard vs. Deep assimilation Independent WOCE CTD section completed in 1988 & 1989 … …and repeated in 2003 & 2005 by PMEL. Shallow assimilation has a strong cold bias of 1-3oC below 750 m. Standard Deep assimilation eliminates the cold bias. Deep

  8. Standard or operational GODAS • Temperature profiles from Argo, XBTs, TAO moorings • Salinity profiles are100% synthetic(via TS-relationship) Argo salinity in GODAS-A/S • Temperature profiles from Argo and XBTs only • Salinity profiles are75% observed(Argo) and25% synthetic(XBTs) Assimilating Argo Salinity Two 2005 experiments

  9. In the west, assimilating Argo salinity corrects the bias at the surface and the depth of the undercurrent core and captures the complex structure at 165oE. In the east, assimilating Argo salinity reduces the bias at the surface and sharpens the profile below the thermocline at 110oW. Assimilating Argo Salinity Comparison with independent ADCP currents. ADCP GODAS GODAS-A/S

  10. MME Strategy and Research • NCEP, NOAA Climate Test Bed activity • Anchored by the CFS • IMME • CFS + International Systems • Operational centers • Required hindcast data sets • UKMO, • Meteo-France • ECMWF • BMRC • Beijing Climate Center • NMME: national research centers • GFDL • NASA • NCAR (through COLA) • Applied research • Preliminary skill evaluation of IMME and NMME members • Assembly of full reforecast data sets from NMME contributors • Prototype products • Consolidate the IMME and NMME contributions • Single operational MME Prediction System Saha, Vandendool, Higgins

  11. The NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System(implemented August 24, 2004) • Global Forecast System 2003 (GFS03) • T62 in horizontal; 64 layers in vertical • Recent upgrades in model physics • Solar radiation (Hou, 1996) • cumulus convection (Hong and Pan, 1998) • gravity wave drag (Kim and Arakawa, 1995) • cloud water/ice (Zhao and Carr,1997) 1. Atmospheric component 2. Oceanic component • GFDL MOM3 (Pacanowski and Griffies, 1998) • 1/3°x1° in tropics; 1°x1° in extratropics; 40 layers • Quasi-global domain (74°S to 64°N) • Free surface 3. Coupled model • Once-a-day coupling • Sea ice extent taken as observed climatology 4. Calibrated on past 38 years

  12. Climate Forecast System Availability • Real-time 2x daily, 9-month forecasts, monthly ensemble of 40-60 members. • 15-member reforecasts per month (1981–2005) • Calibration • Skill estimates • Analog and statistical forecasts • The website for real time data retrieval is at: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.fcst • The climatological data is at: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.clim/ • Complete documentation available at: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ssaha/cfs_data/cfs_data.pdf 7 day average centered on Dec 27

  13. CFS Seasonal Precip Forecast (mm/month) Without skill mask

  14. CFS Seasonal Precip Forecast (mm/month) With skill mask • If anomaly correlation between forecast and observed conditions over the 1982-2003 period is below 0.3, values are not shown

  15. CFS Seasonal Temp Forecast (deg K) Without skill mask

  16. CFS Seasonal Temp Forecast (deg K) With skill mask • If anomaly correlation between forecast and observed conditions over the 1982-2003 period is below 0.3, values are not shown

  17. North American Ensemble Forecast System International project to produce operational multi-center ensemble products • Combines global ensemble forecasts from Canada & USA • Now:CAN 40/day out to 16 days, US – 56/day out to 16 days • ’07 – CAN 40/day out to 16 days, US – 80/day out to 16 days • Generates products for • Intermediate users: forecasters at NCEP, WFOs, academia, media, private sector, … • Specialized users: hydrologic applications in all three countries • End users: forecasts for public distribution in US, Canada (MSC) and Mexico (NMSM) • Future activities • Adding products (probabilistic in nature) • Incorporating ensemble data from other centers (e.g., FNMOC) • Unified evaluation/verification procedures After bias correction Probabilistic skill extended 1-3 days Raw ensemble

  18. NAEFS Products • NAEFS basic product list • 11 functionalities • Ensemble mean, spread, probabilities, etc. • 50 variables • U,v,t,z,CAPE, precip type, etc. • 7 domains • Global, NH, NA, CONUS, SA, Caribbean, Africa • Over 600 products requested by users (will be supplied via priority order) • Graphics • Available on NAWIPS at NCEP Centers • Grids • NAWIPS • ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/grns/prod • NDGD in planning phase (Aug 07)

  19. NASA-NOAA-DOD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) • NOAA, NASA, DOD partnership • Mission • Accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather and climate prediction models • Current generation data • Prepare for next-generation (NPOESS, METOP, research) instruments • Supports applied research • Partners • University, Government and Commercial Labs

  20. JCSDA Scientific Priorities 2002-2007 Improve radiative transfer model Prepare for advanced instruments Advance techniques for assimilating cloud and precipitation information Improve land and sea ice surface emissivity models and land surface and sea ice products Improve use of satellite data in ocean and land data assimilation Air quality (aerosols, ozone and trace gases)

  21. ESMF Earth System Modeling Framework

  22. NSF NCARTim Killeen, PIByron BovilleCecelia DeLucaRoberta JohnsonJohn Michalakes Al Kellie MITJohn Marshall, PIChris Hill NASA GMAOArlindo da Silva, PI Leonid Zaslavsky Will Sawyer Max Suarez Michele RieneckerChristian Keppenne Christa Peters-Lidard NOAA GFDLAnts LeetmaaV. BalajiRobert HallbergJeff Anderson NOAA NCEPStephen LordMark IredellMike YoungJohn Derber DOE Los Alamos National LabPhil Jones DOE Argonne National LabJay LarsonBarry Smith University of MichiganQuentin Stout ESMF Partners

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