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Outline. Exam 1 Review 9/13/12, 7:00p-8:30p , 262 Willard Exam 1 covers Ch 1, 2 , 3, and the syllabus Bring ID and # 2 pencil, arrive on time for no exams handed out once one is turned in. Self-Fulfilling Prophecy Heuristics Culture .
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Outline • Exam 1 Review • 9/13/12, 7:00p-8:30p, 262 Willard • Exam 1 covers Ch 1, 2 , 3, and the syllabus • Bring ID and # 2 pencil, arrive on time for no exams handed out once one is turned in. • Self-Fulfilling Prophecy • Heuristics • Culture
The relationships developed on shows like The Bachelor and The Bachelorette have rarely produced long-lasting marriages. This is likely because the situations in which these relationships begin are • low in external validity. • high in external validity. • low in internal validity. • high in internal validity.
Jake had a hypothesis about the outcome of the Ross and colleagues (2004) study about the “Wall Street Game” and the “Community Game.” Jake hypothesized that the players would respond based on their personalities, not just the name of the game they played. His hypothesis is most likely based on which tendency? • self-fulfilling prophecy • construals • direct social influence • fundamental attribution error
Example: The Bloomer study (Pygmalion effect) • Expectation: bloomer or not • Bloomers flourished
Why did bloomers flourish? • Teachers unconsciously provided bloomers with • more material and more difficult • more and better feedback • more and longer opportunities to respond to questions. • more attention, warmer environment
Automatic: Heuristics • Heuristics – Mental shortcut • Form of automatic thinking
Availability Heuristic • Availability heuristic – ease with which something comes to mind influences judgment • List 2 or 8 times assertive • How assertive are you? • 2 is easier to think of than 8, therefore people view themselves as more assertive in the 2 than 8 condition
Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic • Two groups and given different starting points (anchors) Grp A Grp B • Length Miss River 70 3,000 • Height Mt. Everest 5,000 45,000 • % over > 65 4% 25% Anchoring and Adjustment heuristic: Anchor determines magnitude of the answer • Is answer higher or lower than anchor? • Adjust Group A will tend to have lower estimates than group B
Representativeness heuristic • Representativeness heuristic – make judgments based on how similar something is to the typical example. Ex1: What cereal is lower in sugar and saturated fats? Lucky Charms or 100% Natural Cereal
Culture and social cognition • How does culture alter what you see? East Asians more likely to describe background than Westerners
Culture and Social Cognition • Analytic thinking style • focus on objects without considering surrounding context • associated with Western cultures • Holistic thinking style • focus on the overall context, relation between objects • associated with Eastern cultures
Culture and Social Cognition • Eastern and Western cultures • equally capable of using both styles • environment in which people live “primes” one style over the other
Who do you think would be happier: someone who won a silver medal at the Olympics or someone who won a bronze? Surprisingly, research shows that silver medalists are often less happy, because they can more easily imagine how they might have come in first and won a gold.Source: REUTERS/Nikola Solic
Counterfactual reasoning • Counterfactual Reasoning • Mentally changing some aspect of the past in imagining what might have been • “If only I had answered that one question differently, I would have passed the test.” • Can have a big influence on our emotional reactions to events • The easier it is to mentally undo an outcome, the stronger the emotional reaction to it.
How to improve human thinking • Have to overcome the over –confidence barrier • Question – write down low and high answer so 90% sure falls between the 2 numbers. Goal only 10% wrong. Avg – 40 to 80% wrong – why so overconfident? • Overconfidence barrier – many people think reasoning just fine and over confident in their accuracy • How to overcome this issue and issue of over reliance on heuristics? • Encourage thinking the opposite pt of view • Can improve with training –stats, methods