Lecture 4: Grievances & Opportunities

1. Lecture 4: Grievances & Opportunities • Grievances and Opportunities: An Introduction Bottom line: Terrorism is very much a contextual phenomenon We thus have to understand the many different kinds of contexts that could motivate and facilitate terrorist activity

2. Political Grievances • Corruption among political and economic elites • Oppressive, authoritarian regimes that stifle civil liberties • Marginalization, favoritism/discrimination, institutionalized exclusion (e.g. Ethno-nationalism, cf. Byman, Lesson 3) • Injustice (real or perceived) • Political disagreements (e.g. reconstruction, Roe vs Wade) Most often, many of these conditions coincide, creating a cumulative effect of animosity toward those in power Legitimacy is a key factor Ted Robert Gurr (1970): “As legitimacy declines, people rebel”

3. Political Facilitators • Corruption among political and economic elites • Weak, failing or failed states (Patrick, Chenoweth, Wahlert) • “Ungoverned” or “Contested” or “Zone of competing governance” • “Political instability” especially in transitioning states (Chenoweth) • Overthrow of government (e.g., military coup) • Peace agreement (N. Ireland; Israel/Palestinians) • Foreign intervention/occupation • Other political factors?

4. Socio-Economic Grievances • Plato and Aristotle: “Economic factors are fundamental in the outbreak of violence.” • Marxism: “War is a mechanism for maintaining inequalities in a struggle for control of raw materials and markets.” • Violence is an inevitable outcome of capitalism • Poverty (Blomberg, et al) • Widespread economic disparities (often tied to corruption) • Lack of government investment in education, public infrastructure • Unequal barriers to social, educational and economic opportunities • Energy poverty • High inflation • Globalization (Barber, “Tribalism and Globalism”)

5. Socio-Economic Grievances • Structural economic challenge: Socio-demographic pressures (youth bulge) • Age composition of populations in developing countries affects: • Resource consumption • Prices • Government revenues and expenditures • Demand for jobs • Labor wages, etc. • “Current and projected demographic and socioeconomic conditions in many nations throughout the Middle East, South Central, and Southeast Asia could lead to the emergence of more terrorism and terrorists for many decades to come . . .” National Intelligence Council

6. Socio-Economic Facilitators • Shadow economy (Naghshpour, et al) • Impoverished communities vulnerable to exploitation by criminal networks, militias, etc. – some of whom provide social and economic programs that fill needs unmet by official government For example: • Hizballah in Lebanon • Hamas in the Palestinian Territories • Underpaid law enforcement, border security, etc. can facilitate corruption, criminal or extremist sympathies • Significant concern in several African countries Corruption as both grievance and facilitator . . .

7. Socio-Economic Facilitators Beyond the local . . . • Diaspora communities, especially in wealthy Western countries • Globalization (reduction in barriers to global transportation, shipping, asset transfers) • Arms trafficking (ease of access to AK47s) • Trafficking in drugs, humans, diamonds, etc. (revenue streams) • Global energy dependence facilitates funding streams for violent groups • e.g. oil bunkering in the Niger Delta . . .

8. Expectations Opportunities Summary • Aspirations/expectations vs. opportunities • Regime unable or unwilling to change/improve • Political, socio-economic conditions offer fertile ground, but do not always lead to emergence of terrorism Contextual relevance is central to terrorist group formation; politics and economics are only part of that context

9. Questions?