Let me introduce myself…

1. Let me introduce myself… • Professor Alan Matthews • Professor Emeritus of European Agricultural Policy in the Department of Economics • Former Director, Institute for International Integration Studies • Particular research interests in agriculture, trade and development

2. Outline for my course contribution • Trade and protectionism • Balance of payments and exchange rates • Green growth: growth and environment • Addressing imbalances: Future issues for the global economy • [Role of the financial system] Rafique Mottiar

3. Trade and Protectionism Session 4 Macroeconomics and the International Economy MSc Economic Policy Studies Alan Matthews

4. The policy context • The WTO Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations • New EU trade policy late 2010 • Focus now on bilaterals and ‘megaregionals’ • Commodity market turmoil • Challenges/opportunities for Ireland?

5. Learning objectives • Describe some of the stylised facts about trends in international trade • Review our understanding of the gains from trade • Identify barriers to trade and trade protectionism • Explain the role of the WTO in setting trade rules and encouraging further trade liberalisation • Describe significance of new generation of regional trade agreements • Discuss Ireland’s trade policy objectives in the context of the global economic crisis

6. Section 1. Stylised facts about trade

7. Global trade – stylised facts • Most trade takes place between the North America, Europe and East Asia • Some developing countries now important suppliers of manufactured exports • Shift in importance from commodities to goods to services • Significance of intra-industry trade • Success of multilateral system in liberalising trade in goods… • .. But paradoxical increase in interest in RTAs • .. And growing hostility to further trade liberalisation

8. Source: WTO International Trade Statistics 2012

9. Ireland’s export profile

10. Structure of Irish merchandise trade Source: WTO Trade Profiles

11. Structure of Irish services trade Source: WTO Trade Profiles

12. .. But free trade is not popular

13. Section 2. Review of gains from trade

14. The various gains from trade • Traditional gains • Comparative advantage • Variety of products • Modern extensions • Competition and contestability • Economies of scale and scope • Innovation and R&D • Product and quality improvement

15. World Price and Comparative Advantage If a country has a comparative advantage, then the domestic price will be below the world price, and the country will be an exporter of the good. If the country does not have a comparative advantage, then the domestic price will be higher than the world price, and the country will be an importer of the good.

16. Price of Steel Price after trade World price Price before trade International Trade in an Exporting Country... Domestic supply Domestic demand 0 Quantity of Steel

17. Price of Steel How Free Trade Affects Welfare in an Exporting Country... Domestic supply A Exports Price after trade World price D B Price before trade C Domestic demand 0 Quantity of Steel

18. Price of Steel Consumer surplus before trade A B C Producer surplus before trade How Free Trade Affects Welfare in an Exporting Country... Domestic supply Price after trade World price Price before trade Domestic demand 0 Quantity of Steel

19. Price of Steel Consumer surplus after trade A Exports D B C Producer surplus after trade How Free Trade Affects Welfare in an Exporting Country... Domestic supply Price after trade World price Price before trade Domestic demand 0 Quantity of Steel

20. How Free Trade Affects Welfare in an Exporting Country The analysis of an exporting country yields two conclusions: Domestic producers of the good are better off, and domestic consumers of the good are worse off. Trade raises the economic well-being of the nation as a whole, i.e., the potential size of the cake for redistribution.

21. Price of Steel Price before trade World Price Price after trade International Trade and the Importing Country... Domestic supply Domestic demand 0 Quantity of Steel

22. Price of Steel How Free Trade Affects Welfare in an Importing Country... Domestic supply A Price before trade B D World Price Price after trade C Imports Domestic demand 0 Quantity of Steel

23. Price of Steel Consumer surplus before trade A B C Producer surplus before trade How Free Trade Affects Welfare in an Importing Country... Domestic supply Price before trade World Price Price after trade Domestic demand 0 Quantity of Steel

24. Price of Steel Consumer surplus after trade A B D C Imports Producer surplus after trade How Free Trade Affects Welfare in an Importing Country... Domestic supply Price before trade World Price Price after trade Domestic demand 0 Quantity of Steel

25. How Free Trade Affects Welfare in an Importing Country The analysis of an importing country yields two conclusions: • Domestic producers of the good are worse off, and domestic consumers of the good are better off. • But N.B. • trade raises the economic well-being of the nation as a whole because the gains of consumers exceed the losses of producers.

26. The Gains and Losses from Free International Trade • The gains of the winners exceed the losses of the losers. • The net change in total surplus is positive. • This is the basis for the pro-trade stance of economists • So… trade is beneficial, but what is the basis for trade?

27. Efficiency gains from trade Absolute advantage Production per person per working day UK more efficient in clothing, Portugal in wine Comparative advantage Portugal more efficient producer of both clothing and wine – but trade still mutually beneficial because of differences in relative costs. Wine is more expensive in the UK, clothing is more expensive in Portugal

28. Comparative advantage in action • England • Two workers reallocated from wine to clothing implies • -6W + 6C • Clothing is exported to Portugal in exchange for wine • -6C + 9W • Net result: -6W + 9W = +3W • Portugal • Exports 9W in exchange for 6C from England: • -9W + 6C • To produce 9W it must give up 6C in domestic product • +9W – 6C • Net result: 0

29. Gains from trade again

30. Comparative cost trade theories • Differences in technology (labour productivity - Ricardo) • Differences in domestic endowments (Heckscher-Ohlin) • factor price equalisation • remuneration increases for the factor that is employed most intensively in the commodity whose price increases • empirical performance in explaining trade flows?

31. Further sources of trade gains • Gains from enhanced competition and contestability of markets • reduced X-inefficiency (‘cold shower’ effect) • Gains from exploiting economies of scale (“Smithian gains”) • Gains from greater product variety • Intra-industry trade • Growth effects • Gains from the stimulus to investment and thus economic growth • Technological spillovers and productivity effects • Political arguments for free trade (avoidance of ‘rent-seeking’)

32. Empirical evidence on trade gains/costs of protection • Empirical estimates of the classical gains from trade (and thus the cost of limiting trade) are quite limited, rarely more than 0.5% of GNP • Much greater welfare effects arise if account is taken of modern sources of gains from trade • The costs of trade policy intervention can be quite high if political economy considerations are factored in.

33. Section 3. Trade policy instruments

34. Arguments for protectionist trade policy • Tariffs as a source of revenue • Optimum tariff argument (for large countries) • Industrial policy considerations • infant industry argument (learning economies) • external benefits: the strategic industry argument • Strategic trade theory (profit-shifting) argument • Non-trade concerns (e.g. food security, rural environment) • Protection against ‘unfair’ competition due to lower costs or standards • Concerns over unemployment and adjustment costs http://economics.about.com/od/international- trade/a/The-Arguments-Against-Free-Trade.htm

35. Trade policy instruments • Tariffs (specific, ad valorem and variable) • Quotas (what happens to rents) • Voluntary export restraints • Contingent protection (anti-dumping) • Beyond-the-border barriers (regulatory regimes) • (evidence from the EU single market) • Trade facilitation measures

36. Partial equilibrium analysis of tariffs Price SH DH Pw' A B C D Pw Q2 Q4 Q3 Q1 Quantity .. lower tariffs improve welfare

37. Why is trade policy controversial? • Trade and unemployment (trade costs jobs) • Trade and income distribution (distribution within countries) • Trade and convergence (distribution of income between countries) • Trade and environment (pollution haven hypothesis) • Trade and labour standards (race to the bottom)

38. More reasons why trade policy is controversial • Trade and consumer non-trade concerns • Trade and public services • Debates about trade rules • Multilateral versus regional approaches • Governance arrangements for trade policy-making and role of the WTO • Unfair rules for developing countries.

39. Section 4. Trade policy rules

40. EU trade policy making • Common Commercial Policy • Qualified majority voting..except when unanimity required in internal decisions, plus cultural and audiovisual services [social, education, health services] • Council – approves mandate for trade negotiations and outcome • Article 133 Committee • European Parliament – following Lisbon Treaty must be consulted on progress of negotiations and has power of assent on ‘take it or leave it’ basis. Decides trade regulations using Ordinary Legislative Procedure. • Commission – conducts negotiations under the Council mandate

41. World Trade Organisation • Established 1995 • One member, one vote – principle of consensus • Sets rules, monitors rules and acts as forum for further trade liberalisation • General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT 1994) • Multilateral Trade Agreements, including • Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade • Agreement on Agriculture • Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards • Agreement on Textiles and Clothing • Agreements on Subsidies and Anti-Dumping (measures against unfair trade) • Plurilateral Trade Agreements • General Agreement on Trade and Services (GATS) • Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights

42. WTO general norms (1) • Non-discrimination • Most Favoured Nation (MFN) treatment of like products (BUT exceptions for free trade arrangements) • National treatment • Reciprocity • the political economy justification for multilateral trade negotiations

43. WTO general norms (2) • Enforced commitments • tariff bindings and Schedules • Transparency • Trade Policy Review Mechanism • Safety valves • restrictions in the case of serious balance-of-payments difficulties or to support infant industries • Article XX - general exceptions allowing trade restrictions • Disciplines on unfair trade practices (subsidies) • Disciplines on technical barriers to trade (standards, food safety)

44. WTO dispute settlement • Binding arbitration • Possibility of retaliation • Key US – EU trade disputes

45. Achievements of the Uruguay Round • Eighth negotiating round • Extended GATT disciplines to agriculture and services • Completed as a single undertaking • But with principle of special and differential treatment for developing countries

46. Agreement on Agriculture • Agriculture was previously outside GATT disciplines • Introduced a three pillar structure • Market access • Export subsidies • Domestic support • Included a rendez-vous clause • Food safety and technical barriers covered by separate Agreements

47. GATS as a framework agreement • General obligations • MFN treatment: applies across all sectors regardless whether specific commitments have been made unless specific exemptions notified initially • Specific commitments related to specific sectors • These relate to three areas (i) market access (ii) national treatment and (iii) other commitments • Commitments only apply to sectors scheduled and may prescribe conditions and qualifications • Understanding that periodic negotiations will be undertaken to progressively liberalise trade in services

48. Problems of services negotiations • Market access barriers are entirely regulatory - not traditional border barriers • Market access is not divisible (like tariffs) - all or nothing • Difficult to quantify concessions for the purpose of determining reciprocity • Developing countries are net importers of services - saw few possibilities for export gains

49. Section 5 Trade policy issues

50. EU trade policy • Global Europe 2006 • Strong commitment to multilateral WTO process • Marked end of de facto moratorium on competitiveness-oriented FTAs • Negotiations launched with Korea, India and ASEAN in 2007, with Canada 2009 and Mercosur 2010. • Korea FTA now approved , also Peru, Columbia, Central America • Reformulation of ‘development’ trade agreements • EBA, EuroMed, GSP, EPAs