1 / 21

Rules for Constructing Causal Theories

Rules for Constructing Causal Theories. King, Keohane and Verba 99-109. Rules for Constructing Causal Theories. Same as causality: the objective is to demonstrate that a variable causes or causes a change in another variable. Internally Consistent:

fiona
Download Presentation

Rules for Constructing Causal Theories

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Rules for Constructing Causal Theories King, Keohane and Verba 99-109

  2. Rules for Constructing Causal Theories • Same as causality: the objective is to demonstrate that a variable causes or causes a change in another variable. • Internally Consistent: • Theories need to be internally consistent.

  3. Rule 1: Construct Falsifiable Theories • A theory incapable of being wrong is not a theory. • In fact, a theory should be designed so that: • 1) It can be shown to be wrong as easily as possible • 2) It is tentative. • 3) Should be prepared to reject the theory as soon as possible.

  4. Falsification • Theories are NOT verifiable: Too many possible Hypotheses • No particular theory can in fact be verified, since there are there are an infinite number of possible hypotheses. Hence, the objective is not to prove a theory, but to test its boundaries of applicability. • Falsification • A falsified theory does not claim universal application. Rather it admits that it applies only to some circumstances, but not all. It can, then, be proven wrong. • It is valid under certain conditions or in a particular setting. There are, in other words, boundaries its applicability.

  5. Falsification • Example: • Theory: In American politics, presidential campaigns have a very limited effect on voter preferences. • Hypothesis: There could be dozens or more: • 1) Campaign ads have no effect • 2) Debates have no effect • Etc.

  6. Falsification • We cannot test them all to see if any contradict the theory. It still might be the case, that in some situation, campaigns do have an effect. Solution: we should not try to explain everything. • Modify the theory so it asserts less: • Theory: In American politics, presidential campaigns have a very limited effect on voter preferences, unless a candidate is viewed as dangerous. (1964) (This is not a universal claim. It boundaries are clearly stated.)

  7. LBJ Video

  8. Rule 2: Build Theories that are Internally Consistent • Internal Consistency is related to Reliability • Reliability: “is the extent to which an experiment, test, or any measuring procedure yields the same result on repeated trials.” • Internal Consistency: If any part of your theory contradicts another, it is internally inconsistent, no evidence from the empirical world will uphold your theory. You cannot say that some population has contradictory practices and • beliefs. • Formal models: can help with internal consistency.

  9. Rule 3: Select DV Carefully • Need to avoid selection bias. • Should not select cases on DV • DV should not be constant. Do no pick just countries with revolutions, for example, if you want to study the factors that facilitate social revolution. • Choose DV that vary • Have cases were there were and were not revolutions.

  10. Rules 4 and 5 • Rule 4: Maximize Concreteness • Need to operationalize hypotheses. • Rule 5: State Theories in as Encompassing Way as Feasible • Value of generalizations. • …

  11. Review: Levels of Analysis • Theory: Concept 1 is related to Concept 2 • Hypothesis: Variable 1 (IV: Cause) is related to Variable 2 (DV: Effect) • Operational Definition: • IV: Definition of Cause • DV: Definition of Effect

  12. Review: Levels of Analysis • Theory: Inequality and Democracy • Hypothesis: Inequality (IV) adversely effects Democracy (DV). • Operational Definitions: • IV: (Inequality): Income Levels • DV: (Democracy): Voting • IV: (Inequality): Political Contributions • DV: (Democracy): Representation • IV: (Inequality): Racial Density of City • DV: (Democracy): Rate of Government Response

  13. Essay Outlines • Introduction: • Topic: Inequality and Democracy • Question: How does Inequality affect Democracy? • Thesis: Racial Inequality (IV) adversely effects Democracy • (DV). • Hypothesis: The federal response will vary by the racial • density of a city. • Literature Review: What have other said about the topic? • Argument/Analysis: (Operational Definitions): • How do you plan to test/demonstrate your argument: • IV: (Inequality): Racial Density of City • DV: (Democracy): Rate of Government Response • (Selection Bias: Look at Variety of DVs: Instances where the government • responded to a crisis)

  14. Review: Levels of Analysis • Theory: SSM and 2004 Election • Hypothesis: State bans on SSM (IV) aided Bush’s reelection (DV). • Operational Definitions: • IV: (SSM): States with SSM bans on the ballot • DV: (Bush Reelection): Republican Voting % by state • Selection Bias: Variation on DV • DV: (Bush Win): Rep. Voting % in state • DV: (Bush Loss): Rep. Voting % in state • You cannot just look at states where Bush won. You need to look at states where he lost, and where SSM ban or may not have been on the ballot.

  15. Essay Outlines • Introduction: • Topic: SSM and 2004 Election • Question: How did State bans on SSM impact the Bush’s reelection? • Thesis: (Hypothesis): State bans on SSM (IV) aided Bush’s reelection (DV). • Literature Review: What have other said about the topic? • Argument/Analysis: (Operational Definitions): • How do you plan to test/demonstrate your argument: • IV: (SSM): States with SSM bans on the ballot • DV: (Bush Win): Rep. Voting % in state • DV: (Bush Loss): Rep. Voting % in state

  16. Review: Levels of Analysis • Theory: Conservatism and US Foreign Policy • Thesis: Bush embraced a crusading, unilateral approach to foreign policy. • Hypothesis: After Bush’s election (IV), the US became less likely to seek multi-literal support (DV)when confronted by threats from abroad. • Operational Definitions: • IV: (Bush): His election (2000-2009) • DV: (Multi-literalism): Number of US Allies In Afghanistan • and Iraq. • DV: (Multi-literalism): Number of US Allies In Gulf War I and II • (before and after study of Bush). • DV: (Multi-literalism): Number of US Allies In Korea, • Vietnam, GWI compared with Afghan, GWII (before and after • study of Bush, times series).

  17. Review: Levels of Analysis • Theory: US Culture and Foreign Policy • Thesis: During the Bush years, US Foreign Policy (DV) was defined by a culture of unilateralism (IV). • Hypothesis: During the Bush presidency, culture of unilateralism (IV) in the pentagon made it less likely (inversed relationship) for the US to seek international support (DV) for its foreign policy. • Operational Definitions: • IV: (Unilateralism): Policy/Rhetoric of Pentagon/White House. • DV: (Inter. Support): Number of US Allies In • Afghanistan and Iraq.

  18. Essay Outlines • Introduction: • Topic: US Culture and Foreign Policy • Question: Is a Culture of Unilateralism shaping US Foreign Policy? • Thesis: A Culture of Unilateralism (IV) defines US Foreign Policy (DV). • Literature Review: What have other said about the topic? • Research Design: Quasi-Experimental: Before and After • DV: (US Foreign Policy): Number of US Allies In Iraq during Bush admin • DV: (US Foreign Policy): Number of US Allies In Iraq during Obama admin

  19. Essay Outlines • Introduction: • Topic: US Culture and Foreign Policy • Question: Is a Culture of Unilateralism shaping US Foreign • Policy? • Thesis: (Hypothesis): A Culture of Unilateralism (IV) is • shapes US Foreign Policy (DV). • Literature Review: What have other said about the topic? • Argument/Analysis: (Operational Definitions): • How do you plan to test/demonstrate your argument: • IV: (Unilateralism): Policy/Rhetoric of White House • DV: (US Foreign Policy): Number of US Allies In Iraq • DV: (US Foreign Policy): Number of US Allies In Afghanistan

  20. Essay Outlines • Introduction: • Topic: SSM and 2004 Election • Question: How did State bans on SSM impact the Bush’s reelection? • Thesis: (Hypothesis): State bans on SSM (IV) aided Bush’s reelection (DV). • Literature Review: What have other said about the topic? • Argument/Analysis: (Operational Definitions): • How do you plan to test/demonstrate your argument: • IV: (SSM): States with SSM bans on the ballot • DV: (Bush Win): Rep. Voting % by state • DV: (Bush Loss): Rep. Voting % by state

  21. Review: Levels of Analysis • Theory: Women and Politics • Hypothesis: Gender (IV) had a defining effect on Nancy Pelosi’s election as Speaker of the House of Representatives. (DV). • Operational Definitions: • IV: (Gender): Gender of Candidate • DV: (Leadership): Likelihood a Woman are Elected as a Leader.

More Related