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Asia’s Quest for World Leadership

Asia’s Quest for World Leadership. Talk given by Rodolfo C. Severino , Head, ASEAN Studies Centre, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, at the 7 th Asia Economic Forum, Phnom Penh, 31 July 2011. What is Asia that is Growing Fast?. Asia here means East Asia: ASEAN+3+India

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Asia’s Quest for World Leadership

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  1. Asia’s Quest for World Leadership Talk given by Rodolfo C. Severino, Head, ASEAN Studies Centre, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, at the 7th Asia Economic Forum, Phnom Penh, 31 July 2011

  2. What is Asia that is Growing Fast? • Asia here means East Asia: ASEAN+3+India • Region’s economies growing fast, except that of Japan, which is only developed country in it • They are expected to grow rapidly, even if slightly more slowly, in next decade

  3. Fast-growing Economies

  4. Yet, Few East Asians Head Major International Bodies • Ban Ki Moon – product mainly of geographical rotation • 26 others, including IMF, and except for one Australian and one NZ, are either European, African, Latin American, or from US • Only 3 East Asians: Yukiya Amano of Japan (IAEA), Margaret Chan of HK (WHO), and SupachaiPanitchpakdi of Thailand (UNCTAD) • Starting 1 Jan 2012, another Japanese (Koji Sekimizu) will be heading IMO

  5. High Growth not Automatically Equal to International Leadership • Reasons: • Rise of Asia fairly recent phenomenon • Different international bodies have different ways of choosing leaders • Rivalries among East Asians • IMF as example (Christine Lagarde), despite breakdown of “gentleman’s agreement”; no East Asian in running

  6. Speaking of IMF

  7. Distribution of IMF Votes • Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland more votes than S. Korea, France more than China • Votes depend on quotas, which depend on contributions • Point is: Asians seldom decide or act together in international gatherings • In practical terms, no such thing as Asia • Region too diverse, too conflicted to exist

  8. Rivalries not only in East Asia • UN Security Council expansion • No need for veto by any of the P-5 • Italy vs. Germany • Argentina vs. Brazil • Pakistan vs. India • Two Koreas, China vs. Japan

  9. Regional Coalitions fragile • Eurozone, EU collapse? • Regional institutions, coalitions fragile • But will take time for economic decline to be transformed into diminution of influence, leadership

  10. Conclusions • No wave of takeovers by East Asians of major international bodies • Maybe, leadership by Japanese or Chinese or person from HK or some other talented – and lucky – East Asian individual • But not Asia as a region; on strength of votes from other regions

  11. Conclusions • Heading international bodies alone not measure of global leadership, but could be indicator of continent’s stature, civilisation’s influence • For now Asia can exercise leadership by: • Promoting rule of law • Undertaking internal reforms • Education for innovation • GDP growth not enough

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