FUTURE STUDIES TODAY ?

1. FUTURE STUDIES TODAY? Marc LUYCKX GHISI Member of the Auroville International Advisory Council, Former member of the “Forward Studies Unit”, EU Vice President of COTRUGLI Business School, Zagreb & Belgrade Marc Luyckx GHISI,

2. FUTURE STUDIES TODAY • We are in a crucial moment. • The change announced by Tofler (Future Shock, 1987) and other futurists is happening today. • Futurists have an important NEW mission: explain the actual world transformation to the public. Marc Luyckx GHISI,

3. FUTURE STUDIES TODAY • This means that futurology and philosophy are in the best position for explaining in a transdisciplinary way the multiple dimensions of the actual transition to • Transmodernity • Post industrial society • Post capitalist society • Post patriarchal society Marc Luyckx GHISI,

4. CHAPTER 1:SHORT DESCRIPTION OF THE TRANSITION Marc Luyckx GHISI,

5. P. Drucker: Transformation Every few hundred years in Western History there occurs a sharp transformation. Within a few short decades, society rearranges itself : its worldview (paradigm), its basic values, its social and political structures, its arts, its key institutions. Fifty years later there is a new world.” Peter DRUCKER: “Post Capitalist Society”.Butterworth Heinemann, 1993, 2001, p.1. Marc Luyckx GHISI,

6. WILLIS HARMAN • “We are living through one of the most fundamental shifts in History: a change in the actual belief structure of Western Society. No economics, political or military power can compare with the power of a change of mind. By deliberately changing their images of reality, people are changing the world.” Willis HARMAN Stanford Research Institute (+1997), Founder of the “World Business Academy” Marc Luyckx GHISI,

7. Transition to Transmodern Death ? Marc Luyckx GHISI,

8. KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY:FIVE LEVELS OF CHANGE Marc Luyckx GHISI,

9. Transformation’s five levels • Humanity is in danger of collective death • Knowledge society is the End of the Patriarchal values (CCC) • Knowledge Society is the end of modernity. It is tansmodern. (post secular, flat, tolerant, new level of responsibility and consciousness). • Knowledge society is also a new economic logic. • Knowledge society is potentially a new political concept of non violence between States. (like EU) Marc Luyckx GHISI,

10. The Iceberg of TRANSMODERNITY Level 5 : Credibility gap of all Institutions is increasing dramatically… Level 4 : The knowledge society : post-capitalist society (Drucker) Level 3: End of Modernity: REASON Only Truth, Science, Violence, Pyramids, Control Level 2 : End of Patriarchal myths, sacred and values Level 1 : Danger of Collective Death Marc Luyckx GHISI,

11. LEVEL 1: HUMANITY IS IN DANGER OF COLLAPSE Marc Luyckx GHISI,

12. WorldWatch Institute Washington • “Our global economy is outgrowing the capacity of the earth to support it, moving us ever closer to decline and possible collapse…. • “We have the technologies needed to build the new economy…” Lester BROWN: “Plan B 2.0” Norton NY, London 2006. Presentation text on the cover. Marc Luyckx GHISI,

13. UNESCO : War against nature • Koichiro MATSUURA, Director of UNESCO in Paris has declared that “we must end this war against nature, which is in fact a war against ourselves, and against the future generations.” • “We must conclude an armistice, a new “natural pact” of co-development with nature.” (“Le Figaro” Jan 11, 2007.) Marc Luyckx GHISI,

14. WHY? • It is a question of Survival for HUMANIY. Marc Luyckx GHISI,

15. Level 2: KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY =END OF PATRIARCHAL VALUES Marc Luyckx GHISI,

16. MATRILINEAR(-3500) Woman= Goddess, snake = her power SACRED = LIFE tree, blood, birth… Sexuality + Pleasure Power = life giving Beauty + art Creativity PATRIARCHAL God the Father women infer + sin. SACRED= Violent DEATH, blood, cross… Sex pleasure impure Power = to kill Ascetism is better From Matrilinear to Patriarchal Marc Luyckx GHISI,

17. KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY = END OF COMMAND AND CONTROL • Every LEADER will have to shift his approach, and the political structures towards post patriarchal values: • respect for the environment, • Importance of human relations • Fostering the joy of creation, • contact with nature, link with the cosmos, • Interiority, spiritual dimension Marc Luyckx GHISI,

18. A NEW WOMAN-MAN RELATION • In every couple around the world, we see a hidden transformation of the relation. Hence... some new conflicts! • This means that women and men are obliged to redefine their roles and behaviours. • Few structures are able to help couples in this unexplained transition. SILENCE. Marc Luyckx GHISI,

19. LEVEL 3: KNWOLEDGE SOCIETY = END OF MODERNITY Marc Luyckx GHISI,

20. Multi level changes... • Structures: From pyramids to void circle • Status of rational thinking • Status of Spiritual aspiration (religion) in public. • Status of truth: real tolerance. • Status of Science and tech. • Status of political violence: beyond war • Status of body, intuition, ethics, esthetics... Marc Luyckx GHISI,

21. PRE-MODERN MODERN 0. Pre-Modern to Modern : Pyramid to Pyramid GOD REASON Economist Clergy Government Government Men Men Women Women COSMOS = sacred COSMOS = object Marc Luyckx GHISI,

22. MODERN TRANSMODERN REASON Economist Government Men Women Men ‘above’ the COSMOS 1. From Modern to Transmodern: From Pyramid to void cercle Men part of COSMOS Cultures Centre is empty Marc Luyckx GHISI,

23. 2. STATUS OF RATIONAL THINKING • “Modern” rational thinking has been a liberation struggle against medieval obscurantism. • It has become now, like a mental prison. • Rationality is loosing its divine status given by “modernity”. And it is only one way to think. • Other ways of thinking like intuition, connection to the cosmos, gain credibility, because we need them, to create knowledge !! Marc Luyckx GHISI,

24. 3. STATUS OF SPIRITUAL ASPIRATION IN PUBLIC • For evident reasons modernity has taken distance from religions. • But in doing this, it has progressively marginalized religions and spiritual aspiration as outdated. • This negation of such an important human dimension is in crisis. • We go probably towards : distinction but not anymore separation. Marc Luyckx GHISI,

25. MODERN Pyramidal Intolerant Rational = truth Secular (France) Disenchanted NOT Responsible No conscious of whole TRANSMODERN Round table + Hole Radical tolerance Truth exist=“void” Post secular Re-enchanted Collective responsibility New level of consciousness 4. STATUS OF TRUTH Marc Luyckx GHISI,

26. 5. NEW ROLE OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY • Science & Technology had received in “modern” times a “divine” status, because they were rational thus true. Now they have to be at the service of our survival in a sustainable future. • Science was above ethics, value free ! Now ethics is back and citizens ask questions to science. • Science was functioning in a offer economy (please consume what we invent !). • Now science HAS to function in a demand economy (please be part of the solution !). Marc Luyckx GHISI,

27. 5. SCIENCE • And science is reinventing itself at full speed. • And this happens through hard paradigm conflicts (Thomas Kuhn, Harvard) • Back to a “poetic” approach to nature... (Ilya Prigogine, Nobel prize 1977). Marc Luyckx GHISI,

28. 6. STATUS OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE • Modernity has created the State as zone of internal NON-violence inside.But outside the borders, citizens are obliged to kill. • Transmodernity has invented structures of non-violence between States: The EU is the first success. • But European Governments “sell” the EU as a market... They should sell EU as the first political avantgarde of the Knowledge society ! Marc Luyckx GHISI,

29. 7. STATUS OF INTUITION, ETHICS, BODY, SACRED, DEATH... • Many things are changing • We see that intuition, ethics, esthetics, are really becoming important again in the knowledge society. • The very concept of sacred has transformed more in 40 years than in 2000 years! • The way we see death and life after death is also changing completely... • We see a reconnexion of body, mind, soul, intelligence...Towards Reenchantment ? Marc Luyckx GHISI,

30. CONSEQUENCE: POLITICAL CHOICES (I) • EU should be presented as the 1° Transmodern political project of the XXI° century. • Politicians should dear to say that we are like at the beginning of Renaissance... • They should call people to reflect worldwide on the new sustainable structures of the future. Marc Luyckx GHISI,

31. CONSEQUENCE:POLITICAL CHOICES (II) • The main world problems are political • World hunger • Education • Water • inequalitiy • The money is there. It would cost 10 to 20% of what is spent for arms... Marc Luyckx GHISI,

32. CONSEQUENCE: ECONOMIC CHOICES (I) • Politicians and economist should have the courage to say that we are not anymore in the industrial capitalist period. • We are already in the knowledge economy which is post capitalist (Drucker). • But nobody dears to say the truth to the citizens. And they know it .... subconsciously. Marc Luyckx GHISI,

33. CONSEQUENCE: ECONOMIC CHOICES (II) • And this “knowldege conomy” (Lisbon Strategy of the EU 2000-2010), could be oriented towards sutainability and social inclusion. • We can decide this. A debate is urgent and needed. • But this presupposes that the economists and politicians “wake up” from the “free trade” industrial nightmare which is unable to lead to a sustainable world. Marc Luyckx GHISI,

34. THE DINOSAUR SYNDROM ! • We are in a time of rapid change. • It is time to speak out and reflect together like in this Congress... • Many structures will become dinosaurs, if they are unable to transform... • Better create new structures without fighting the old ones. Marc Luyckx GHISI,

35. Policy and anguish • Example: war on terrorism. Seems to foster more anger and terrorism, and “clash of civilizations”. Exactly the opposite result. • Like persecution of Christians • Are politicians able to confront the changes? • What is their mission today? Marc Luyckx GHISI,

36. Conclusion • Where are you personally? Are you feeling this transition? • Where are Croatian young business leaders? Which paradigm are they in ? • Where does Croatia fit in the European discussion? Which paradigm? • What is the future of Croatia? Transmodern? Marc Luyckx GHISI,

37. WHAT IS LISBON STRATEGY ? • In March 2000, the Head of the 15 States, which are Members of the European Union, met in Lisbon for one of their official meetings called « European Council ». • They decided that « the EU should become the most competitive world actor in the Knowledge society before 2010, and this in full respect of sustainability and social inclusion. » Marc Luyckx GHISI,

38. CHAPTER 2:WHAT IS KNOWLEDGE ECONOMICS?(Level 4! ) Marc Luyckx GHISI,

39. DEFINITIONS • Data: what is on the web, unorganised • Information: is already sorted by « Google ». Overabundance. • Knowledge: is digested by human brain. Less • Wisdom, Knowledge are rare. Not enough. Marc Luyckx GHISI,

40. A NEW WORLD... • New tool of production : human brain • New CEO: Enabling creativity and sharing, Caring for humans = new human-centered management • New value creation process :adding Knowledge to Knowledge. • BEYOND Trade: from Free Trade to Free Sharing • New measurements = qualitative “intangibles” Marc Luyckx GHISI,

41. A NEW WORLD... • New strategy: beyond war: win-win not win-loose • New definition of Progress = qualitative • Beyond patenting towards “Open Source” • Beyond pyramids towards networks • Capitalizing on cultural capital + gender capital Marc Luyckx GHISI,

42. 1. NEW TOOL OF PRODUCTION • The tool of production is not anymore machine + technol.+ capital (€). • New tool of production is human brain + sharing knowledge in Networks in order to create new K. • This new tool of productionis more important than capital and technol. Humans are ABOVE machines and Capital. • Hence Post capitalist society! Marc Luyckx GHISI,

43. 2. NEW CEO FUNCTION • Old CEO: command, control, conquer • New CEO: • Enables the creativity of his “human capital”= tool of Production • Enables and creates networks around his team. Because (S)He cannot control networks! • Cares for the intangible assets = brand Marc Luyckx GHISI,

44. 2. HR AND NEW MANAGEMENT • Human capital and HR become central because they are caring for the tool of production: Please come back tomorrow! • Thus Management : shifts 180° towards human centeredness = more creativity-centred, gender & culture – centred. • HR Becomes absolutely central. Marc Luyckx GHISI,

45. HR AND NEW MANAGEMENT • The EU economy is at least 50% in this new knowledge economy. Thus HR is really becoming more important everyday. • But many enterprises are not understanding the change. And keep HR devalued ! • Most CEO’s do not understand... It is too quick! Marc Luyckx GHISI,

46. HR AND NEW MANAGEMENT • And so the HR managers have a difficult task to convince their top managers. • Meanwhile people under them push for change, because they feel the need. • It is important for HR managers to understand that their problems are worldwide the same. The transformation is too quick! Marc Luyckx GHISI,

47. INDUSTRIAL SOC. Add value to object From steel to car ! Tool is Machine Humans are cost Management is machine-centered Machine is central KNOWLEDGE SOC. Create new K From data, info to K Tool is Human brain in Networks Humans are capital Management is Human-centered Machine is at service 3. NEW VALUE CREATION PROCES Marc Luyckx GHISI,

48. 4. BEYOND TRADE : win-win(I) • If I exchange an object against money, I loose the object. This is “trade”: I win and I loose. “Win-Loose” logic • If I exchange knowledge, I do not loose my knowledge. I win and you win. I am not trading anymore. I share. This is a “win-win logic” of sharing. Marc Luyckx GHISI,

49. INDUSTRIAL SOC. Free trade of objects Industrial structure Pyramids Unemployment Pollution Quantitative growth KNOWLEDGE SOC. Free sharing of knowl. Post-industrial-capitalist. Network =value creation Self-creation of my job Immaterialization of prod. Qualitative growth 4. BEYOND TRADE (II) Marc Luyckx GHISI,

50. A NEW SYSTEM OF MEASUREMENTS • « Intangible assets » is a new concept invented by Karl Erik SVEIBY (Sweden) • They are becoming more and more important in the knowledge society • Because the knowledge society is about knowledge which is immaterial, intangible and qualitative. Marc Luyckx GHISI,