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School of Business Commercial Real Estate Conference March 6, 2012. The End of Extend and Pretend A Look at the Recent CRE Loan Experience of Connecticut’s Community Banks. Martin J. Geitz, President & CEO. Agenda. Community Bank Profile Market Conditions
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School of BusinessCommercial Real Estate Conference March 6, 2012 The End of Extend and Pretend A Look at the Recent CRE Loan Experience of Connecticut’s Community Banks Martin J. Geitz, President & CEO
Agenda • Community Bank Profile • Market Conditions • Commercial Real Estate Loan Exposure • Loan Quality Trends • Conclusions
Statistical Profile • 46 community banks headquartered in Connecticut • Often the largest bank in their home town • Connecticut community bank deposit market share: approximately 22% • 31 community banks’ data available for this analysis • Total Assets $23.0 billion • Total Loans $16.6 billion • Total Deposits $17.8 billion • Community banks account for over 50% of small business loans in US
CRE Experience • CRE loans are significant balance sheet concentrations for many banks • Concentrations have declined slowly since 2009 peak • Loan quality indicators are still elevated • Expect continued impact of workouts: loan write-downs, foreclosures, distressed sales
Community Bank CRE Loan Concentrations
Total CRE Loans / Total Loans Percentage Data from FDIC UBPR Reports
Total CRE Loans / Total Loans Number of CT Community Banks in each tier
Total CRE Loans / Total LoansMedian Percentage
Non-Owner Occupied CRE / Total Loans Percentage
Non-Owner Occupied CRE / Total LoansMedian Percentage
Owner Occupied Non-farm Non-residential CRE Loans / Average Loans Percentage
Owner Occupied Non-farm Non-residential CRE Loans / Average LoansMedian Percentage
Median Comparison Percentage
CRE Construction and Development Loans / Total Loans Percentage
CRE Construction and Development Loans / Total LoansMedian Percentage
1 to 4 Family Construction Loans / Total LoansMedian Percentage
Total CRE Loans / Capital Percentage
Total CRE Loans / Capital Number of CT Community Banks in each tier
Total CRE Loans / CapitalMedian Percentage
Non-Owner Occupied CRE Loans / Capital Percentage
Non-Owner Occupied CRE Loans / CapitalMedian Percentage
Community Bank CRE Loan Quality
Delinquency Trends • Loan delinquencies typically forecast loan workouts and, ultimately, charge-offs • Delinquencies plateauing for many CT community banks • Delinquencies remain high for commercial real estate loans
All Loans 90+ Days Past Due Percentage
All Loans 90+ Days Past DueMedian Percentage
1 to 4 Family Construction Loans 90+ Days Past Due Percentage
1 to 4 Family Construction Loans 90+ Days Past DueMedian Percentage
Real Estate Loans 90+ Days Past Due Percentage
Real Estate Loans 90+ Days Past DueMedian Percentage
Construction & Land Development Loans 90+ Days Past Due Percentage
Construction & Land Development Loans 90+ Days Past DueMedian Percentage
Conclusions • CT community bank CRE exposure has not declined significantly, though C&D loan exposure is down • CRE delinquencies appear to be leveling off – but is it a trend? • Weak economic growth offers little reason to expect quick improvement in community bank CRE loan conditions
School of BusinessCommercial Real Estate Conference November 1, 2011 Thanks