Dr.rer.nat. ESLAM ALHOGARATY Ottawa Eco-City Biosphere Council Ottawa, Canada

1. Environmental Sciences Human Population Dynamics Dr.rer.nat. ESLAM ALHOGARATY Ottawa Eco-City Biosphere Council Ottawa, Canada

2. Lecture One Human Population Dynamics https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b98JmQ0Cc3k

3. Important Questions Questions? How is population size affected by birth rates, death rates, migration rates, and fertility rates? How is population size affected by percentage of males to females at each age level? How is the world’s population is distributed between rural and urban areas, and how do transportation systems affect population distribution and urban growth? What methods can be used to regulate the size and rate of change of the human population? What success have the world’s two most populated countries, China and India, had in trying to control the rate of growth of their population?

4. Exponentional Population Growth • Linear Growth • Exponential Growth

5. 16 15 ? 14 13 12 11 ? 10 9 Billions of people 8 ? 7 6 5 4 3 2 Black Death–the Plague 1 0 2-5 million years 8000 6000 4000 2000 2000 2100 B.C. A.D. Time Hunting and gathering Agricultural revolution Industrial revolution World Population

6. ? Continued growth Population stabilization ? Number of Humans Population crash ? (10,000 years) Industrial and information revolutions (100,000 years) Agricultural revolution (1 million years) Tool-making revolution Time Effect of Cultural Changes on Human Population Size

7. Factors Affecting Population Growth Major Factors affecting population growth The world population increases 181 human being per minute. The reason is: there are 3 births for each death. The major factors affecting population growth are: 1. Birth rates and death rates 2. Migration 1. Birth rates and death rates The annual change in population size is determined by the difference between the number of people born and the number die each year. When the death rate equals birth rate, population size remains stable (assuming no migration). This is known as zero population growth (ZPG). In 1990, population change rate ranged from a growth rate of +4.3% in Gaza to a decline rate of -0.15 in Hungary.

8. Factors Affecting Population Growth Rapid population growth in Less Developed Countries (LDCs) makes it difficult to raise living standards, in addition to its contribution to resources degradation and depletion. The world population increases 181 human being per minute. The reason is: there are 3 births for each death. The major factors affecting population growth are: Factors affecting birth rates and fertility rates The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children women will have during their childbearing years (age 15-44). In 1990, the average TFR was 2 in More Developed Countries (MDCs) and 4 in LDCs, ranging between 1.3 in Italy and 8.3 in Rwanda.

9. Annual world population growth <1% 1-1.9% 2-2.9% 3+% Data not available Natural Rate of Increase

10. Factors Affecting Population Growth The factors affecting birth rates and total fertility rates can be summarized as follows: • Average level of education and wealth. Both factors are in MDCs which keep the birth and fertility rates low. • Importance of children as part of the family labor force. Birth and fertility rates are high in LDCs, especially in rural areas. • Urbanization. People living in urban areas have fewer children than those living in rural areas. • High costs of raising and educating children. Birth and fertility rates are less in MDCs, where raising children is more costly. • Education and employment opportunities for women. Birth and fertility rates are high when women have little or no access to education.

11. Births per woman < 2 4-4.9 2-2.9 5+ No Data 3-3.9 Fertility Rates Replacement-level fertility Total fertility rate (TFR)

12. 32 30 28 26 24 Births per thousand population 22 20 World War II 18 Demographic transition 16 Depression 14 Baby bust Baby boom Echo baby boom 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Factors Affecting BR and TFR

13. Factors Affecting Population Growth • Infant mortality rates. In areas with high infant mortality rates people tend to have more children. • Average marriage age. People have fewer children when average marriage of women is 25 or higher. • Availability of private and public retirement systems. Pensions eliminate the need for parents to have many children to support then in old age. • Availability of reliable methods of birth control. Widespread availability tends to reduce birth and fertility rates. • Religious beliefs, traditions and cultures. The factors affecting death rates The rapid growth of the world’s population over the last 100 years was largely due to a decline in death rates, especially in LDCs. However, the major reasons for drop in death rates are:

14. Infant deaths per 1,000 live births <10 <10-35 <36-70 <71-100 <100+ Data not available Factors Affecting DR Life expectancy Infant mortality rate (IMR)

15. Population Change (Births + Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration) = Factors Affecting Population Growth • Better nutrition because of increased food production and better distribution. • Reduced incidence and spread of infectious diseases because of improved personal hygiene and improved sanitation and water supplies. • Improvement in medical and public health technology, including antibiotics, immunization, and insecticides. 2. Migration The annual rate of population change for a particular country, city, or other area is affected by movement of people into (immigration) and out of (emigration) that area:

16. Population Age Structure Because of the restriction imposed by many countries on immigration, the population change for most countries in determined mainly by the difference between their birth rates and death rates. On the other hand, the migration within countries, especially from rural to urban areas, plays an important role in the population dynamics of cities, towns, and rural areas. Population Age Structure 1. Age structure diagram The age structure, or age distribution, of a population is the percentage of population, or the number of people of each sex, at each age level in a population. The age structure diagram is subdivided into three age categories: pre-productive (0-14), reproductive (15-44), and post-productive (45-85+).

17. Male Female Rapid Growth Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Slow Growth United States Australia Canada Zero Growth Spain Austria Greece Negative Growth Germany Bulgaria Sweden Ages 15-44 Ages 45-85+ Ages 0-14 Population Age Structure Age structure diagrams of selected LDCs and MDCs during the period 1985-2025, showing rapid, slow, zero and negative growth rates.

18. Population Age Structure Most LDCs with rapidly growing population have pyramid-shaped age structure diagram, indicating a high ratio of children under age 15 to adults over age 65. In contrast, the diagram for most MDCs undergoing slow or no population growth have a narrow base, showing that such countries have a much smaller percentage of population under age 15 and a larger percentage above 65 than LDCs. Some MDCs such as Hungary and West Germany are experiencing a slow population decline. 2. Age structure and population growth momentum Any country with a large number of people below age 15 has a powerful momentum to increase its population size. In 1990 one of every three persons on this planet was under 15 years old. In LDCs the number is even higher (36%) compared to MDCs (22%). The continued population growth in LDCs can be slowed only by a massive program to reduce birth rates or a catastrophic rise in death rates.

19. Population Distribution: Urbanization and Urban Growth 3. Projections from age structure diagrams The median age of the U.S. population was 29 in 1970, 33 in 1990, 36 in 2000 and is predicted to be 39 by the year 2010. Urbanization and Urban Growth The geographic population distribution in rural or urban areas affect economic, environmental, and social conditions. Urbanization is the percentage of population living in urban areas (towns or cities), while urban growth is the rate of growth of urban population. • Between 1900 and 1985 the percentage of the world’s population living in urban areas increased from 14% to 43%. • The number of large cities is increasing and the number of number of people living in cities is also increasing.

20. Population Distribution: Urban Crisis in LDCs • LDCs, with 32% urbanization, are experiencing high rates of population growth. • In MDCs, with 73% urbanization, urban growth is slowing. • The distribution of people living in poverty is shifting from rural to urban areas at an increasing rate. Urban Crisis in LDCs In LDCs more than 20 million rural people migrate to cities each year. The factors responsible for this population shift can be summarized as follows: • Job opportunities in urban centers. • Rural poverty. • Modern mechanized agriculture decreased the need for farm labor.

21. Population Distribution: Urban Crisis in LDCs • Government politics that distribute most income and social services to urban dwellers at the expense of rural dwellers. Crisis • For most of the rural poor moving to urban areas the city becomes a poverty trap not an oasis of economic opportunity and cultural diversity. • The fortunate urban immigrants who get a job must work long hours for low wages. The often take jobs that expose them to dust, hazardous chemicals, excessive noise, and dangerous machinery. • Scarcity of trees, shrubs, and other natural vegetations that absorb pollutants and produce oxygen, cool air, reduce noise, and provide aesthetic pleasure. • Alteration of climate (temperature and precipitation) and creation of fog, cloudiness, and pollutants.

22. Solutions: Influencing Population Size Governments influence the size and rate of population growth by controlling births, deaths and migration. 1. Birth Control Decreasing the birth rate is the focus of most efforts to slow population growth. In 1990, 93% of the world’s population and 91% of the people in LDCs live in countries with fertility reduction programs. The general approaches are: economic development, family planning, and socio-economic change. 2. Migration The governments of most countries achieve some degree of population regulation by allowing immigration from other countries. In contrast, some governments encourage emigration to other countries to reduce population pressure.

23. Solutions: Influencing Population Size 3. Economic Development and Demographic Transition Demographic transition occurred in industrialized countries (MDCs) and takes place in four distinct phases: • In the pre-industrial stage harsh living conditions lead to a high birth and death rates. • The transitional stages starts after industrialization begins. The death rate drops due to increased food production, sanitation and health care, but birth rate remains high and population grows rapidly. • In the industrial stage the birth rate drops and approaching the death rate at the end. Population growth continues but at slower rate. • In the post-industrial stage the birth rate declines reaching zero population growth (ZPG). Then the birth rate falls below the death rate and total population size slowly decreases.

24. Stage 1 Preindustrial Stage 2 Transindustrial Stage 3 Industrial Stage 4 Postindustrial High 80 70 60 Birth rate 50 Birth rate and death rate (number per 1,000 per year) Relative population size 40 30 Death rate 20 10 Total population Low 0 Low growth rate Increasing Growth growth rate Very high growth rate Decreasing growth rate Low growth rate Zero growth rate Negative growth rate Time The Demographic Transition

25. Solutions: Influencing Population Size Question: can most LDCs make the demographic transition? 4. Family Planning Family planning can decrease birth rate at a lower cost than economic development alone. The program provides educational and clinical services on birth control. The program can save many lives of a million women die from pregnancy-related diseases in LDCs. The program vary from culture to culture. While it has been successful in China, Indonesia, and Brazil, it had moderate to poor results in LDCs of African and south America and in countries such as India, Egypt, Bangladesh, and Nigeria. 5. Economic Rewards and Penalties Experts urge that family planning should go along with economic development. Governments can discourage births by using economic rewards and penalties.

26. Solutions: Influencing Population Size And increased rights, education, and work opportunities for women would reduce fertility rates. Now, China, Singapore, Hong Kong, Ghana, and Malaysia charge couples who have more than one child extra taxes. 6. Empowerment of women Women do all of world’s domestic work, child care and health care without pay. Although women work two-thirds of all hours worked in the world, they get one-tenth of the world income and own 1% of the world’s land. Women make up 60% of the world’s 900 million adults who can not read or write. Educated women have fewer children and have job opportunities other than staying at home and raising children.

27. Case Studies: India (Generally disappointing results) 1. India Despite family planning, India’s population rose from 400 million in 1952 to 853 million in 1990. In 1952 it was adding 5 million people to its population each year. In 1990 it added 18 millions. In 1990, at least one-thirds of Indians had an annual income of less than $100 per person per year, and 11 out of every 100 babies born died before their first birthday. To add to the problem, half of India’s labor force in unemployed or can find only occasional work. Family planning program has been disappointing due to the followings: • Poor planning • Bureaucratic inefficiency • Low status of women • Extreme poverty • Lack of administrative and financial support

28. Case Studies: India (Generally disappointing results) 3 out of every 4 people in India live in rural villages, where birth rates are much higher than the world average. Delivery of education and birth control to mostly rural population is complicated by an illiteracy rate of about 71%, with 80% to 90% of the illiterate people being rural women.

29. Case Studies: China (Generally positive results) 2. China Between 1958 and 1962 about 30 million people died from famine in China. Since 1970, has made impressive efforts to control population growth. Today China has enough grain both to export and to feed over a billion people. It also has achieved a remarkable drop in birth and fertility rates. To accomplish its family planning program, China executed the most extensive and strictest population program in the world. The following are its major features: • Marriage postponement • Expansion of educational opportunities • Birth control • No more than one child • Economic rewards such as salary bonuses, extra food, larger pensions, better housing, free medical care, and child tuition.

30. Case Studies: China (Generally positive results) • Return of all benefits for those who break the pledge • Conducting abortion, if necessary • Compulsory Birth control after the second child • Use of mobile units to carry out the program activities in rural areas • Training local people to carry out the family planning program. • Expecting all leaders to set an example with their own family size. Despite its difficulty, China leaders have a goal of reaching and maintaining ZPG with a population at 1.2 billion. Parts of China’s program could be used in many LDCs, especially the aspect of localizing the program.

31. Thank You