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Environment Canada Monthly and Seasonal Forecasting Systems

Environment Canada Monthly and Seasonal Forecasting Systems. Hai Lin Meteorological Research Division Environment Canada. Current EC Seasonal+monthly Forecasting System. Main features: Multi-model ensemble approach 4 AGCMs: GEM-CLIM, SEF, GCM2 and GCM3

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Environment Canada Monthly and Seasonal Forecasting Systems

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  1. Environment Canada Monthly and Seasonal Forecasting Systems Hai Lin Meteorological Research Division Environment Canada

  2. Current EC Seasonal+monthly Forecasting System Main features: • Multi-model ensemble approach • 4 AGCMs: GEM-CLIM, SEF, GCM2 and GCM3 • 10 members for each model, lagged initial conditions • 2-tier system • Persistent SST anomaly • 4-month integration • 1st month  monthly forecast Seasonal forecasting system has been replaced on December 1, 2011

  3. Next EC Seasonal and Monthly Forecasting Systems • 2 separate systems • Monthly system based on GEPS, expected to be in operation in early 2012 • Seasonal system uses 2 coupled models (1-tier system), expected in operation December 2011

  4. Monthly System • GEPS based • Two components 1) Real time forecasting system 2) Hindcast (model climate and statistics)

  5. Real time forecasting system • Extend GEPS to 32 days once a week (00Z Thursday) • Persistent SST anomaly added to time-evolving SST climatology • GEM 4.4, 0.6x0.6L40 • Perturbed physics • 21 members, ensemble Kalman Filter

  6. Hindcasts • To generate GEPS model climatology • For the same date, past 15 years • 4 members each year, 60 members for each date • Use 3 weeks centered at the date of the current Thursday, total of 180 members • Can be done any time before the real time forecasting, when the computer is available

  7. Proposed products Forecast products of weekly average T2m and PR over Canada • Ensemble mean anomaly maps • Probability maps for above, below and near normal

  8. Evaluation • Winter (January and February) • Summer (July and August) • Past three years (24 forecasts for each season) • Correlation skill for ensemble mean 500 hPa geopotential height and T2m • Categoricalforecast score for T2m and PR The following maps are based on previous GEPS version GEM3.2.8 0.9x0.9L28

  9. Correlation skill Winter Z500 30-day average

  10. Correlation skill Winter T2m 30-day average

  11. Percent Correct for categorical forecasts Winter T2m 30-day average

  12. Percent Correct for categorical forecasts Winter PR 30-day average

  13. 10-day average T2m Over Canada Percent Correct for categorical forecasts

  14. New Seasonal System • 2-coupled models (CCCma models) • AGCM3 (T63L31) -> CanCM3 • AGCM4 (T63L35) -> CanCM4 • coupled with CanOM4 (1.41°× 0.94° / L40) ocean model • 1-tier system • 10 members for each model • 1-12 month forecast issued every month

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