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Neboj š a Naki ć enovi ć Technische Universität Wien xx

Energy Perspectives and Climate Change. Neboj š a Naki ć enovi ć Technische Universität Wien xx International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx naki@iiasa.ac.at. IIASA Energy Day in Poland, Systems Research Institute Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw – 10 June 2008.

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Neboj š a Naki ć enovi ć Technische Universität Wien xx

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  1. Energy Perspectives and Climate Change Nebojša Nakićenović Technische Universität Wien xx International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx naki@iiasa.ac.at IIASA Energy Day in Poland, Systems Research Institute Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw– 10 June 2008

  2. Global Energy Challenges • Sustainable access to energy services (a prerequisite for reaching MDGs) • Deep CO2 and other GHGs reductions • Energy systems security and reliability • Investment in RD&D and in diffusion

  3. World Primary Energy 450 Renewable 400 Nuclear 350 Microchip 300 Commercial Gas aviation Nuclear 250 energy Primary Energy (EJ) 200 Oil Television 150 Vacuum tube Gasoline engine Electric 100 Steam motor engine Coal 50 Biomass 0 1850 1900 1950 2000

  4. Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 50 0.1280.026 100 0.0740.018 Global Mean Temperatures are Rising Period Rate Years /decade

  5. Night Lights 2000 Source: After SRES, 2000

  6. Night Lights IIASA A2r Scenario SRES A2 2070 Source: After SRES, 2000

  7. Δ Temperature 2070 2070 Source: TAR-WGI, 2001

  8. Global Primary Energy – A2r

  9. Global Primary Energy – B1

  10. Long-Term Stabilization Profiles A2 B1

  11. ~$100/tCO2 Long-Term Stabilization Profiles A2 B1

  12. <$25/tCO2 ~$100/tCO2 Long-Term Stabilization Profiles

  13. The lower the stabilisation level the earlier global emissions have to go down peak in 25yrs peak in 10yrs

  14. Source: David Sanborn Scott, 2004

  15. Technology Learning Costs and Benefits Specific investment costs ($/kW) Learning costs Level of present competitiveness Future learning benefits Learning benefits Cumulative investments $ CumulativeMW experience Time

  16. 100,000 100,000 Cost reduction~ $100 109 1973: 30,000 1973: 30,000 1976: 16,300 1976: 16,300 10,000 10,000 1980: 4,900 1980: 4,900 – 4.0 0.54x – 4.0 0.54x y = 10 y = 10 PV costs (1985) Yen per W PV costs (1985) Yen per W 2 2 R = 0.989 R = 0.989 1,000 1,000 1995: 640 1995: 640 Basic R&D Applied R&D Investment Basic R&D Applied R&D Investment ~ $1 109 100 100 0 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 0 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 Cumulative expenditures, billion (1985) Yen Cumulative expenditures, billion (1985) Yen Japan - PV Costs vs. Expenditures 1985: 1,200 1985: 1,200 Data source: Data Source: Watanabe, 1997 Watanabe, 1995 &1997 Grübler, 2002

  17. Technology Learning in SRES Source: Riahi

  18. diversification earlier investments Total Primary EnergyB2 baseline, f are hedging costs

  19. Total Energy - related Investments (World, short & long - term) 200 Long - term Investment 175 Savings (~40 trillion) 150 125 Trillion US$2000 100 75 “ Upfront ” Investments (~2 trillion) 50 25 0 A2 B1 A2 B1 2000 - 2030 2000 - 2100

  20. Global Energy AssessmentTowards a more Sustainable Future • The magnitudeof the change required is huge • The challenge is to find a way forward that addresses all the issues simultaneously • A paradigm shift is needed: energy end-use efficiency, new renewables, advanced nuclear and carbon capture and storage. Source: Johansson, 2005

  21. Some Research Areasfor future collaboration • Integrated Assessment Framework:Modeling of long-term global and regional transitions • Decision Making under Uncertainty • Energy services: Understanding heterogeneity of energy consumers • Global Energy Assessment (GEA)

  22. Confronting the Challenges of Energy for Sustainable Development: The Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis and its international partners present the www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

  23. GEA Knowledge Clusters • Cluster I: Major Global Issues and Energy • assessment of the Challenges • Cluster II: Energy Resources and Technological Options • assessment of the Components available to build future energy systems • Cluster III: Possible Sustainable Futures • assessment of how to combine the Components to create Systems that address the Challenges –Scenario development • Cluster IV: Policies Advancing Energy for Sustainable Development • assessment of the Policies needed to address the Challenges and realize the Systems

  24. International Organizations UNDP UNEP UNIDO World Bank IEA Country Governments/Agencies Austria Brazil Italy Korea Sweden USA Corporations Petrobras TEPCO Industry groups WEC WBCSD Foundations UN Foundation Heinz Foundation Organizations Supporting GEA

  25. Confronting the Challenges of Energy for Sustainable Development: The Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis and its international partners present www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

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