The Changing Face of Forestry: The U.S. Forest Service Perspective

1. The Changing Face of Forestry: The U.S. Forest Service Perspective Ken Arney U.S. Forest Service

2. Table of Contents • National Forest News • Emerging Forest Issues in the South • Challenges for Forestry

3. National Forest NewsSecure Rural Schools Proposal • President’s 2007 budget includes proposal to reauthorize Rural Schools and Community Self-Determination Act for 5 years • Funding would be from sale of certain NF lands • Currently in Congress – Considerable opposition from both parties

4. National Forest NewsRoadless Rule Petitions • USDA Sec. Approved petitions from VA, NC and SC on June 21 to develop state-specific roadless area rules (first in nation) • FS will work with states to develop rules – public input will be solicited • States have until Nov. 13, 2006 to file petitions, or forest plans prevail • Georgia not expected to file petition. • About 12 expected nationwide

5. Emerging Forestry Issues • Ownership Change • Land Use Change • Changing Markets – Timber and Other • Forest Health Concerns

6. Ownership Change

7. David N. Wear And John G. Greis

8. Forest area and ownership

9. Forest Area by Ownership Group - South Source: SFRA

10. The Changing Landscape ofPrivate Timberland Ownership Mike Clutter Brooks Mendell David Newman June 13, 2005

11. Industry Ownership Changes By FIA Units

12. Industry Land Divestiture Summarized • More than 20 million acres in South since 1996 • Driven by several forces • Widespread but focused in parts of the South • Raises several questions and concerns

13. Questions Include: • Will this trend increase / accelerate fragmentation across forested landscapes? • Will management objectives and silvicultural practices change dramatically? • How will the changes impact fire suppression capabilities? • Will new owners practice good forest stewardship?

14. Other Private Forest Land Ownership National Statistics1953 - 2003

15. Southern Forest Owners: • 5 million • Increasingly absentee • 29% white collar; 20% retirees • 6% farmers (down from 67% 50 yrs ago) • Diverse management objectives • Mostly do not seek management advice • Small % control more than 1/3 of all timberland Source: SFRA

16. Why do they own forestland? Source: N.W.O. Survey

17. Land Use Change

18. Population change (2000-2020)

19. 2020 Forecast ….Southern Residents Will Be: • Increased by 24 million • More urban • Older • More Hispanic and African-American • Just more than 50% White Source: So. WUI Assessment

20. Urbanization – Why Care?“Among the forces of change,urbanization will have the most direct, immediate and permanent effects on the extent, condition and health of forests” SFRA, 2002

21. Urbanization Outcomes • Smaller parcel sizes • More difficult management (e.g. smoke) • More recreational pressure • Conversion to non-forest • Economic disincentives to own and manage • More biocentric ownerships and citizenry • More public resistance to harvests • More local regulations and ordinances (346 in 2000 vs. 141 in 1992 in South) Source: SFRA; So. WUI Assessment

22. Range of Forecast Changes by StateWear, 2006 (in Draft)

23. Forecast Total Regional Forest Change (Wear, 2006 in Draft) • No net loss if: • High timber prices • Lowered population growth • Low ag prices • Maximum loss of 27 million acres if: • Low timber prices • High Population growth • High ag prices

24. Changing Markets

25. Rapid Assessment of Market Change in the South Douglas Carter and Dave Wear Assoc. Prof., SFRC, Univ of FL and Project Leader, Economics Work Unit, USFS SRS

26. What Has Happened?--Harvests-- • Steady growth ’62-’98 • Declining harvests ’98-’01 • Softwood and hardwood pulpwood harvests declined 11% and 21% from ’98-’01 • Softwood sawtimber harvests were more stable Southern US Timber Harvests

27. What Has Happened?--Prices-- • Biggest declines were in softwood pulpwood since ‘98. • Softwood sawtimber not impacted as severely. • Hardwood pulpwood more volatile but regained strength since 2000. • Hardwood sawtimber stable or increasing. Southern US Stumpage Prices

28. Pulpmills and Chipmills in the South

29. Number of Southern Pulp Mills US Forest Service and Forest Resources Assn.

30. Sawmills in the South

31. Emerging Markets??? • Carbon • Water • Biomass • Viewscapes • Wildlife Viewing/Habitat • Other Ecosystem Services

32. Conclusions: Markets • Markets are NOT going away, but adjusting after rapid growth in the 1990’s • Domestic demand has declined for pulpwood • 16% reduction in southern pulping capacity since 1997 (indicates a sustained decline in demand) • Some expanding demand for pulpwood per OSB expansion • Solidwood demand appears stable • Ecosystem services may offer promise

33. Significant Forest Health Management Program Activities in Georgia • SPB prevention program • Hemlock Woolly Adelgid control • Cogongrass eradication along FL border • Redbay mortality in coastal areas • Sudden oak death surveys

34. In Conclusion……… • The South’s population is growing rapidly • Southern forests are changing ownership, being urbanized, and facing numerous health issues • National Forests will play a key but changing role in southern forestry • USFS State and Private Forestry will continue to lead on issues relevant to non-federal forest lands. • Cooperation among all owners and managers will be necessary if southern forests are to remain viable and healthy

35. For More Information….. • Email: karney@fs.fed.us • SFRA: www.srs.fs.fed.us/sustain • Changing Industry Ownership: www.southernforests.org • Market Change: www.southernforests.org