Vulnerability and Risk Analysis: Practical Examples III

1. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” VULNERABILITY AND RISK ANALYSIS: SOME PRACTICAL EXAMPLES III CAPACITY BUILDING SESSION Pesaro, 15th December 2016 Life SEC Adapt Project LIFE14 CCA/IT/000316 Francesca Giordano, Institute for Environmental Protection and Research Coordinated by Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

2. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” 1) AGREE ON THE ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK The terms “vulnerability (and risk)” are used in different ways across numerous disciplines. Even the IPCC concept of vulnerability is undergoing changes although it is the most widely used concept. This can lead to confusion… Coordinated by Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

3. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” 2) AGREE ON THE TEMPORAL SCOPE: CURRENT vs FUTURE VULNERABILITY? Current exposure • ASSESS CURRENT VULNERABILITY Current sensitivity Current adaptive capacity Climate Science Environmental Science ESTIMATE FUTURE CONDITIONS (climate, environment, society) Social Science Future exposure 2. ESTIMATE FUTURE VULNERABILITY Future sensitivity Future adaptive capacity Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

4. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” VULNERABILITY Vulnerability is not a measurable characteristic of a system, such as temperature, precipitation or agricultural production. It is a concept that expresses the complex interaction of different factors that determine a system’s susceptibility to the impacts of climate change. However, there is no fixed rule defining which factors to consider, nor the methods used to quantify them. This is why it is better to say “assess” rather than “measure” vulnerability. You have to choose which approach fits best your needs!! (i.e. data availability, time for the assessment, human resources,…) Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

5. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK Key concepts (exposure, sensitivity, potential impacts, adaptive capacity, vulnerability, risk) already defined in the previous capacity building… Without adaptive capacity vulnerability assessment is not complete! Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

6. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” FIRST OF ALL TAKE INTO ACCOUNT… Reducing CO2 (and possibly other greenhouse gas) emissions on its territory by at least 40% by 2030, namely through improved energy efficiency and greater use of renewable energy sources The Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy Increasing its resilience by adapting to the impacts of climate change (climate change risk and vulnerability assessment) Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

7. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” …THE COVENANT OF MAYORS FOR CLIMATE AND ENERGY REPORTING GUIDELINES…RISK&VULNERABILITIES REPORTING Tables for description of Climate change Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (RVAs) performed by the local authorities. 1-Climate hazard risks particularly relevant for your local authority 3-Expected impacts in your local authorities 2-Vulnerability description Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

8. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” …AND THE INDICATORS PROPOSED AS INSPIRATION… Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

9. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” …mapping vulnerability… EXAMPLE N. 1: The vulnerability Mapbook (Climate-ADAPT) (1) • Indicators are grouped according to exposure, sensitivity and response capacity. • A total of 12 urban vulnerability indicators were developed, relating to 4 climatic threats particularly relevant at city level: HEAT WAVES, WATER SCARCITY AND DROUGHTS, FLOODS, FORESTFIRES • No synthetic indices are proposed but indicators of the same categories can be overlapped. CURRENT SENSITIVITY to HEAT WAVES EXPOSURE to HEATWAVES CURRENT RESPONSE CAPACITY Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

10. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” EXAMPLE N. 1: The vulnerability Mapbook (Climate-ADAPT) (2) The maps pinpoint possible weaknesses or problematic areas while presenting single indicators or variables that indicate certain vulnerabilities of major european cities. • LIMITATIONS: • uncertainties: the future is uncertain. Climate change projections are based on various scenarios that describes not one but a range of possible futures, based on the best current knowledge • limited data availability: data are not yet available for projections on future climate change and demographics, land use and economic change. The assessment is therefore based on CURRENT VULNERABILITIES • limited number of indicators: these indicators are considered to be key for a good understanding of city vulnerability but additional indicators are needed to describe the vulnerability in full. Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

11. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” …qualitative vulnerability assessment… EXAMPLE N. 2: The Adaptation Compass Tool (Future Cities – Interreg IVB project) (1) Here you get an overview on the sensitivity of different receptors to weather events. General Sensitivities List of sensitive people and systems to climate change Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

12. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” EXAMPLE N. 2: The Adaptation Compass Tool (Future Cities – Interreg IVB project) (2) Check your vulnerability Vulnerability is a function of sensitivity (“receptors” and “former events”) and exposure (“spatial relevance”) of a receptor to the climate/weather effects and the capacity to adapt towards those conditions Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

13. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” …quantitative vulnerability assessment… EXAMPLE N. 3: The Vulnerability Sourcebook (GIZ, Adelphi, EURAC research) (1) The Vulnerability sourcebook provides a standardised approach to vulnerability assessment covering a broad range of sectors and topics (e.g. water sector, agriculture, fisheries, different ecosystems) as well as different spatial levels (community, sub-national, national) and time horizons (e.g. current vulnerability or vulnerability in the medium to long term). Very helpful schematic guidelines, applicable to a local context for current to long term vulnerability assessment, quantitative comparable results among different areas. Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

14. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” EXAMPLE N. 3: The Vulnerability Sourcebook (GIZ, Adelphi, EURAC research) (2) 1.Transform the conceptual framework into a specific thematic framework for each impact of climate change: Structure of an impact chain: Change in water availability for agricultural production Source: adelphi/EURAC 2014 Source: adelphi/EURAC 2014 Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

15. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” EXAMPLE N. 3: The Vulnerability Sourcebook (GIZ, Adelphi, EURAC research) (3) 2. Identify indicators: select at least one indicator for each relevant factor in your analysis. These indicator values will be later aggregated to vulnerability components (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) and thus contribute to the composite vulnerability score. Vulnerability components can be more easily measured than vulnerability. Source: adelphi/EURAC 2014 Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

16. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” EXAMPLE N. 3: The Vulnerability Sourcebook (GIZ, Adelphi, EURAC research) (4) 3. Normalize, weight and aggregate indicators: • Indicators have different units and therefore cannot be aggregated without normalization (to transform all values to scores ranging from 0 to 1): • ‘0’ as optimal, no improvement necessary or possible • ‘1’ as critical, systems no longer functions Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

17. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” EXAMPLE N. 3: The Vulnerability Sourcebook (GIZ, Adelphi, EURAC research) (5) 4. Aggregate vulnerability components to vulnerability: Vulnerability assessment are not necessarily limited to a single sector or region but can comprise several sub-vulnerabilities. This might be the case when examining different economic sectors or administrative regions within a larger area. Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

18. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” EXAMPLE N. 3:…a possible application to your case studies…(6) SENSITIVITY EXPOSURE Score 0-1 Extreme temperature events Elderly people Score 0-1 Score 0-1 Young people Population density Score 0-1 Chronically ill people Score 0-1 Green urbanareas Score 0-1 Low income households – socio-economic status Score 0-1 Degreeofsoilsealing Score 0-1 Average Average ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Resources and technologies POTENTIAL IMPACT SCORE: excessmortality due toheatwaves Low: 0,7-1 Medium: 0,5-0,69 High: 0-0,5 Score 0-1 GDP per capita Score 0-1 Expensesforadaptation Access and availability of information Score 0-1 Training initiatives on climate change Average Institutions and governance ADAPTIVE CAPACITY SCORE Low: 0,7-1 Medium: 0,5-0,69 High: 0-0,5 Decreaseofsoilsealing Score 0-1 VULNERABILITY TO HEATWAVES Score 0-1 Increaseof green urbanareas Average Score 0-1 Availibilityofearlywarningsystems Numberof hospital beds Score 0-1 Domestichealthcareservices Score 0-1 Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

19. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS R = Probabilityofan impact X Magnitudeofan impact HIGH RISK LOW RISK Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

20. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” …quali-quantitative risk assessment… EXAMPLE N. 4: The LIFE IRIS quantitative analysis (1) POSSIBLE CLIMATE EVENTS POSSIBLE RISKS AND DAMAGES for industries • Heatwaves • Cold waves • Air horn • Extreme precipitation events with floodings, river floodings, landslides • Drought • Sea level rise • …. • Asset integrity • Business continuity • Legal liability • Reputation • …. Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

21. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK EXAMPLE N. 4: The LIFE IRIS quantitative analysis (2) PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

22. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK EXAMPLE N. 4: The LIFE IRIS quantitative analysis (3) MAGNITUDE OF IMPACTS QUESTIONNAIRE on environmental, economic and social impacts 1: no magnitude 2: low magnitude 3: medium magnitude 4: high magnitude 5: very high magnitude Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

23. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK EXAMPLE N. 4: The LIFE IRIS quantitative analysis (4) RISK = Probability of occurrence X Magnitude of impact Arithmetic average Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

24. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” FINAL REMARKS There are many different applications of the conceptual frameworks of vulnerability and risks. The selection of the best approach should be supported by data and the capacity to model the future trends but… …data may not be available in the required quantity or quality, or there may not be enough time to generate data specifically for the assessment. A very localised scope in an area with poor data availability may also present a challenge. In this case you may need to draw on the knowledge of local experts to quantify certain indicators. Where data, time and financial resources are limited, EXPERT JUDGEMENT can be a good, fast way of quantifying indicators that cannot otherwise be assessed. The local knowledge – captured using participative methods as well as scoring and ranking can be used to either complement or replace surveys. A balanced selection of expert and stakeholders will increase your chances of obtaining meaningful results. Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020

25. “With the contribution of the Life Programme of the European Union” THANKS A LOT! francesca.giordano@isprambiente.it ISPRA Via V. Brancati, 48 – 00144 Roma Project financed with the contribution of LIFE Programme 2014-2020