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Economic Vitality and Political Legitimacy

Economic Vitality and Political Legitimacy. Southeast Asia in an Era of Financial Crises. “It’s the economy, stupid”. Or is it? Singapore’s 2010 GDP growth was 14.5% PAP took a “pasting” in 2011 elections. 1997-1998. Fall of Suharto in Indonesia Mahathir-Anwar split in Malaysia

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Economic Vitality and Political Legitimacy

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  1. Economic Vitality and Political Legitimacy Southeast Asia in an Era of Financial Crises

  2. “It’s the economy, stupid” • Or is it?Singapore’s 2010 GDP growth was 14.5% • PAP took a “pasting” in 2011 elections

  3. 1997-1998 • Fall of Suharto in Indonesia • Mahathir-Anwar split in Malaysia • New government and constitution in Thailand

  4. This morning’s session • Lecture One: Changes in Southeast Asian economies • Regional “commodity chains” • Lecture Two: Why are many SEA economies so successful?

  5. Southeast Asian economies • Large populations • Largish economies • Average 2009 pci (PPP $) near $5,000 • Malaysia near $14,000 • Myanmar near $1,000

  6. Why was the “hamburger” crisis less severe? • Commodity prices (China) • Demand (China) • Lessons learnedhealthy bankscurrent account surpluses • Fiscal stimulus

  7. De-coupled from Europe and NA? • Falling shares of exports to EU and NA • Rising shares of exports to China • But….

  8. ASEAN • 1967 • 1992: AFTA • AEC by 2015

  9. Vertical specialization • Middle income trap? • Global economic adjustments

  10. From flying geese to commodity chains • Textile industry • Transport machinery and electronics

  11. Further readings? • OECD, Southeast Asian Economic Outlook, 2010 • Dan Slater, Ordering Power. Contentious Politics and Authoritarian Leviathans in Southeast Asia (Cambridge University Press, 2010) • Olivier Cattaneo, Gary Gereffi, and Cornelia Staritz, eds. Global Value Chains in a Postcrisis World: A Development Perspective (World Bank, 2010)

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