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Comparative Assessment of Delta Vulnerability and Resilience

This study evaluates the vulnerability and resilience of 10 deltas, providing insights for adaptive strategies and sustainable measures. The framework integrates scientific, social, and management knowledge to support decision-making towards resilient deltas. The assessment includes drivers of change, pressures on occupation layers, and key indicators for each delta, aiming to enhance knowledge exchange and address research gaps. Conclusions highlight the need for improved governance, infrastructure, and natural delta processes to ensure sustainability. Future steps involve developing key indicators, optimizing scoring methods, exploring detailed scenarios, and expanding collaborative research across more deltas.

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Comparative Assessment of Delta Vulnerability and Resilience

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  1. Delta Alliance - Comparative assessment of the vulnerability and resilience of 10 deltasTom Bucx (Deltares) tom.bucx@deltares.nl 8 June 2011 EEA Expert meeting Methods and tools for assessing coastal vulnerability to climate change

  2. Comparative assessment of the vulnerability andresilience of 10 deltas • Provide a first step towards a comprehensive overview of the current and future state of deltas • Provide a ‘Delta assessment framework’: integrating scientific, social and management knowledge and addressing future data collection on key-indicators • Support decision-making process on adaptive strategies and measures towards resilient and sustainable deltas

  3. Deltas studied Rhine-Meuse Danube Ganges- Brahmaputra- Meghna Yangtze California Bay-Delta Mississippi Nile Mekong Ciliwung Incomati

  4. DPSIR + Spatial layers approach

  5. Framework for assessment Impacts | Responses

  6. Towards indicators of change Delta descriptions

  7. Delta description - format • Drivers of change • Pressures / potential problems • Land and water use (occupation layer) • Infrastructure (network layer) • Natural resources (base layer) • Governance (institutional and organisation aspects) • Adaptive measures • Technical methods and tools • Needs for knowledge exchange and research gaps • Lessons learned Score card

  8. Delta description – qualitative and quantitative info • Example: Drivers of change in Rhine-Meuse delta: • Climate change – higher peak river discharges (winter) • long drought periods (summer) • sea-level rise ≤ 0.65 to 1.3 m in 2100 • Subsidence – Tectonic subsidence ~10 cm/century • ≤10 mm/year surface-lowering due to peat • compaction and oxidation

  9. Delta description – qualitative and quantitative info Example: pressures on occupation layer in Rhine-Meuse delta: • Presure on space – population density ~500 inhabitants/km2; high pressure on space • Vulnerability to flooding – high safety levels: 1/1250 (river dikes) to 1/10,000 years (coastal defense); sea-level rise and growing investments will increase flood risk • Freshwater shortage – rising sea levels will increase salt water seepage and will cause local freshwater shortages

  10. Delta description – quantative main indicators Example: main indicators (draft) for Rhine-Meuse Delta:

  11. Scorecard and related indicators

  12. Scorecard – ‘weighting method’ Assessment of the current and future state of the delta

  13. Comparative overview of delta score cards resilience/sustainability: ++ (very good), + (good), 0 (medium), - (low), -- (very low)

  14. Comparative overview of delta score cards - Conclusions • For most of the deltas current resilience and sustainability is not satisfactory • Reasons differ per delta but some general mechanisms: • An imbalance between demands and supply with regard to land and water use; • An inadequate or ageing infrastructure in the delta; • Disruption of the natural delta processes; • Inadequate governance to address problems and implement solutions. • For a number of deltas the challenge is defining a comprehensive • (multi-sectoral) delta plan • The combined DPSIR-layer approach has proven to be useful

  15. What’s next? • Develop set of key (quantitative) indicators • Optimize scoring and ranking method • Work out scenarios in more detail • Include more deltas (Rhone, Po, Thames, …) • Work out concrete collaborative research ideas/proposals across deltas

  16. Website - downloads • www.delta-alliance.org • Background information • Documents to download: • Synthesis report • Working document (with full delta descriptions)

  17. Thank you Questions?

  18. Project team

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