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Asia’s Political Future

Asia’s Political Future. Outline. Major powers US, Japan, & China New challenges International security Human security counter-terrorism environmental protection health-related issues. Major Powers. Asia’s political future depends largely on the major powers in the region:

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Asia’s Political Future

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  1. Asia’s Political Future

  2. Outline • Major powers • US, Japan, & China • New challenges • International security • Human security • counter-terrorism • environmental protection • health-related issues

  3. Major Powers • Asia’s political future depends largely on the major powers in the region: • How will US project its political, economic, and military power in Asia? • How will Japan project its political, economic, and military power in Asia? • How will China project its political, economic, and military power in Asia?

  4. Long-term Growth 1980 - • From 1980 to 2000, two regions in the world economy have performed well: • rich OECD economies • 0.9 billion people • per capita GDP grew by 1.4% a year 1980-2000 • East Asia (excluding Japan) • 1.8 billion people • per capita GDP grew by 5.8% a year 1980-2000

  5. Military Capital Estimates

  6. Asia’s New Security • Changing nature of security • International security • Human security • counter-terrorism • environmental protection • drug trade • infectious diseases

  7. International Security • The geopolitical landscape now lacks the relative stability of the linear Cold War division between the Soviet camp and the US camp • There is no obvious equivalent to USSR • US is the world’s sole superpower • No basic change foreseeable in future

  8. Hot Spots in Asia • Kashmir • North Korea • Taiwan Strait

  9. Nature of Security • State as rational actors • State as non-unitary actors • Actors of international relations besides sovereign states • international organizations • non-governmental organizations • mass public

  10. Human Security • counter-terrorism • environmental protection • drug trade • infectious diseases

  11. Non-traditional Threats • ``Threats without enemies” • Turmoil and chaos from undefined sources • Cross international borders • Not linked directly to state behavior • Far more ambiguous in patterns, processes, and effects than traditional challenges

  12. Traditional Security state national security structured violence competition interaction always lead to relative gains Human Security individual/community societal security unstructured chaos cooperation interaction can lead to absolute gains Comparative Aspects

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