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Food [feed and fiber] subgroup ARB Expert Workgroup on LCFS

Food [feed and fiber] subgroup ARB Expert Workgroup on LCFS. Michael O’Hare, chair Seth Meyer John Sheehan Blake Simmons James Duffy, ARB staff 5/X/2010. Characterizing FFF effects of biofuel expansion. More/better estimates of Agricultural commodity and fossil fuel price changes

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Food [feed and fiber] subgroup ARB Expert Workgroup on LCFS

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  1. Food [feed and fiber] subgroupARB Expert Workgroup on LCFS Michael O’Hare, chair Seth Meyer John Sheehan Blake Simmons James Duffy, ARB staff 5/X/2010

  2. Characterizing FFF effectsof biofuel expansion • More/better estimates of • Agricultural commodity and fossil fuel price changes • Agricultural commodity (non-fuel use) consumption changes • Decomposition of effects reducing LUC from ha/ha equivalence • (if possible) allocate food consumption changes to low-income populations and others • Include “food-constant” experiment in new GTAP estimates • Feedback to FFF prices from fossil fuel price changes owing to biofuel substitution

  3. Model comparison • Compare FFF and fossil fuel price estimates from various economic/agricultural models (GTAP, FAPRI, IMPACT, MIRAGE, etc.) for • Consistency • Possibility of empirical verification • Uncertainty in estimates

  4. [Not unanimous group view] • Explore options to include FFF effects in LCFS implementation

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