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Quantitative assessment of the impact of the NDP

2. Report: Table of contents, I. Overview about the results Modelling the Czech Economy The HERMIN modelling framework The new HERMIN model for the Czech Republic4.1 Some characteristics of the Czech Economy4.2 Some characteristics model results (equations). 3. Report: Table of

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Quantitative assessment of the impact of the NDP

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    1. 1 Quantitative assessment of the impact of the NDP/NSRF 2007-13 using a macroeconomic model for the Czech Republic � Project 05/5 Ministry of Regional Development � Czech Republic Prague, 23 November 2006 Final presentation GEFRA EMDS IREAS

    2. 2 Report: Table of contents, I Overview about the results Modelling the Czech Economy The HERMIN modelling framework The new HERMIN model for the Czech Republic 4.1 Some characteristics of the Czech Economy 4.2 Some characteristics model results (equations)

    3. 3 Report: Table of contents, II 5. The NSRF Evaluation 5.1 How to analyse the Structural Fund interventions (demand and supply-side effects) 5.2 Implementation into HERMIN 5.3 Some detailed results 6. The future of the Czech NSRF Evaluation A series of technical annexes

    4. 4 1. Overview of the results During the implementation phase 2007-15 (nine years instead of the formal seven year SF interventions) two separate mechanisms work: The demand side effect (mainly through programmes of public and accompanying private investment) The supply-side effect which work through the build-up of stocks of infrastructure, human capital and R&D. After the termination of the programmes in 2015 the demand side effects will vanish rapidly but the supply-side effects will remain for a longer period.

    5. 5 1. Overview of the results, continued When measuring the impact of the NSRF it is important to distinguish between Level effect Growth effect The Level-effect compares the economic outcome relative to a baseline-scenario and can be expressed as a percentage or absolute difference from the baseline. The Growth-effect compares the different growth rates within one scenario with the growth rates in a baseline scenario. Even if there are large level effects the growth rates can be very similar.

    6. 6 1. Overview of the results, continued

    7. 7 1. Overview of the results, continued Revised expenditure profile of the NSRF (euro million per year)

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