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Decision analysis and risk management: Introduction to course

Decision analysis and risk management: Introduction to course. Jouni Tuomisto, THL. Outline for session 1 (28.2.). Introduction and objectives of the DARM course Practicalities: schedule, website http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm Lectures and classroom exercises Case study exercise

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Decision analysis and risk management: Introduction to course

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  1. Decision analysis and risk management: Introduction to course Jouni Tuomisto, THL

  2. Outline for session 1 (28.2.) • Introduction and objectives of the DARM course • Practicalities: schedule, website • http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm • Lectures and classroom exercises • Case study exercise • Group work: decision analysis on swine flu case • Individual work: risk management analysis on swine flu • Evaluation and credits • Guidance, help, and communication • What are DA and RM? • Introduction to the swine flu case in Finland

  3. Objectives of the course.The student should: • Get a good overview of modern assessment methods. • Learn basic concepts of decision analysis. • Learn to use decision analysis in practice. • Understand the connections between societal decision-making and decision analysis. • Be able to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of decision analysis. • Know how to build a decision analysis based on the requirements of risk management.   • Be able to utilize modern web workspaces for decision analysis.

  4. Schedule of the course • http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm

  5. Lectures and classroom exercises • Theory of DA & RM • Swine flu story discussions • Considering the theory in a practical context • Exercises • Calculation exercises • Using Opasnet

  6. Case study exercise • Analyze the swine flu case and consider yourself as giving advice to the Ministry of Social and Health affairs of Finland • What could be learned from the swine flu case for improving public health risk management in Finland? • Exercise consists of two parts: • Decision analysis study plan (group work) • Risk management analysis (individual work) • Case study exercise description and instructions: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Category:DARM_exercise

  7. Decision analysis study plan • Plan a decision analysis study on the swine flu case • Background description • Purpose and scope of the study • Analysis plan • (Expected) results • If possible, the plans can try to be realized, at least partially • Write the plan in Opasnet • Group work • 3-4 people/group • Recommended: at least one fluent in Finnish in each group • Some swine flu case material only available in Finnish

  8. Risk management analysis • Analyze risk management in the swine flu case and consider alternative ways to making it • Background (cf. DA study plan background) • RM in the swine flu case • Alternative approach to (a part of) RM in the swine flu • Alternative vs. actual • Conclusions and recommendation (for the Ministry) • Write your report in Opasnet • Individual work • Not limited by the scope of the DA study plan of the group one attended

  9. Hints to making case study exercise • Build on: • theory lectures and classroom exercises on this course • classroom discussions on the swine flu case as a DA and RM problem • materials listed and linked to on the course web-page • the demonstrator DA model • assessments in Opasnet • descriptions of assessment and variable objects in Opasnet • other related information e.g. on the web and libraries • your own expertise and opinions • other groups'/individuals' exercise works • Clear and focused scoping is important!

  10. Using Opasnet • Basics: 4.3. 9-12, MC9 • Possible problems can be discussed in classroom as they occur • Discussion and argumentation exercise 1.4. 9-12, MC9

  11. Evaluation and credits • DARM: 6 ECTS • Whole course obligatory for ToxEn students • For others partial accomplishments are also possible • Lectures and classroom exercises: 3 ECTS • Case study exercises: 3 ECTS • Decision analysis study plan 2 ECTS • Risk management analysis 1 ECTS • Lectures are voluntary, but highly recommended • Active participation practically necessary for successful accomplishment of exercises

  12. Evaluation and credits • 2/3 * exercise grade + 1/3 * classroom exercise grade = overall course grade

  13. Evaluation and credits • Classroom exercise evaluation • Scoring of some calculation exercises • Marko will explain details at the exercises • Bonus for active participation in classroom

  14. Evaluation and credits • Exercise evaluation • DA study plan = 2/3 of the exercise grade • RM analysis = 1/3 of the exercise grade • Bonus for active commenting and discussion in Opasnet • Clarity and reasoning (not length) • Basis for evaluation (to be) explained in more detail on the case study exercise page

  15. Guidance, help and communication during the course • General arrangements • Case study exercise • Technical help • Commenting and discussion in Opasnet

  16. What are DA and RM?

  17. Swine flu case in Finland

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