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The 2013-04-15 Puerto Rico Earthquake

The 2013-04-15 Puerto Rico Earthquake. - A SCENARIO EXERCISE -. (This is NOT a real earthquake!). Gavin Hayes U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center. Kevin Furlong Department of Geosciences Penn State University. Overview.

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The 2013-04-15 Puerto Rico Earthquake

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  1. The 2013-04-15Puerto Rico Earthquake • - A SCENARIO EXERCISE - (This is NOT a real earthquake!) Gavin Hayes U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center Kevin Furlong Department of Geosciences Penn State University

  2. Overview You will be responding to an earthquake offshore of Puerto Rico, in ‘simulated real time’. The purpose is to follow the same type of time-evolution of earthquake information that we encounter for an earthquake response at the NEIC: i.e., generating useful products for the public/media/first responders/government, etc., as our knowledge of and information related to the event is still changing. Major areas of focus are: - Regional tectonics (tectonic/geologic setting, type of faulting, historic seismicity, etc.) - Earthquake impact (Shaking, population exposure, infrastructure) - Secondary hazards ( particularly tsunami. Also; liquifaction, landslides?) - Media liaisons (the forward-facing group of earthquake response - coordinate information from everyone else, and respond to media enquiries).

  3. Team Requirements Team 1 - Regional Tectonics Team: 1. Determine geologic setting of event 2. Plate boundary or not? Type of faulting? 3. Plates involved; plate motion rates, directions. 4. Historic seismicity and effects 5. Info on aftershocks - when/if available 6. Provide information to other groups.

  4. Team Requirements Team 2 - “PAGER” team 1. Find population data for affected regions 2. Correlate ShakeMap with population data 3. Estimate # of people exposed to each MMI; fatalities & economic impact. Alert level? 4. Update estimates as new info becomes available; help determine tectonic setting of earthquake. 5. Provide Information to other groups.

  5. Team Requirements Team 3 - Additional Hazards - TSUNAMI Team 1. Immediate, qualitative assessment of tsunami potential 2. Identify vulnerable locations and timing of tsunami impact - start close and work to distant targets. 3. Prepare tsunami alerts for Media team 4. Update tsunami timing/impact based on EQ updates, DART buoy information, etc. 5. Share information with other groups.

  6. Team Requirements Team 4 - Media Team 1. Respond to questions from press, government officials, international aid agencies 2. Anticipate questions 3. Generate ‘talking points’ - based on results from other groups 4. Interact with other groups to address specific questions that arise. Help facilitate communication among the other teams.

  7. Situational Awareness An earthquake has just struck off the northern coast of Puerto Rico, a U.S. Territory in the northern Caribbean. Origin Time: 20:38:12 UTC (locally, 15:38) The NOAA tsunami warning centers, working in collaboration with NEIC analysts, estimate the size of the event as M 7.8 (using the Mwp magnitude scale, known to be less accurate than Moment Magnitude), 4 minutes after origin time. M = 7.8, OT + 4 mins This is currently internal information only; no public release has been made.

  8. Observations DART buoy locations EQ

  9. Workflow Information will be released to the various teams as it becomes available. This will include: - Magnitude updates (based on more detailed analyses with time, and more sophisticated moment tensor modeling estimates). Magnitude generally evolves over the first 40-60 mins of an earthquake response. - Earthquake depth changes. Earthquake location also improves with time; particularly depth characterization. - Faulting mechanism. Derived from moment tensor analyses, a modeling tool for studying the earthquake source. First estimates are generally available after 10-15 mins; then are updated after 25 mins, and finally 35-40 mins. These include more accurate magnitude and faulting information. - Fault Finiteness. Large earthquakes involve slip over an area of fault. This impacts ShakeMap estimates. Models of finiteness are generally available around 10 mins after the final faulting mechanism information. - Tsunami Observations. As any tsunami is observed at DART buoys around the Caribbean and Atlantic Oceans, this information will be released to you. You should be aware of at what times you expect this information.

  10. OT + 8 mins

  11. ShakeMap #1 MMI 6 in Puerto Rico MMI 5 in Dominican Republic MMI 5 in Virgin Islands

  12. Moment Tensor, #1 (subject to change) OT + 9 mins

  13. OT + 15 mins

  14. ShakeMap #2 MMI 6-7 in Puerto Rico MMI 5-6 in Dominican Republic MMI 6 in Virgin Islands

  15. Moment Tensor, #2 (subject to change) OT + 25 mins

  16. Tsunami Observation! Time: OT + 34 mins Height: 0.05 m

  17. Moment Tensor, #3 (final) OT + 38 mins

  18. OT + 40 mins

  19. ShakeMap #3 Depending on attenuation relation chosen... MMI 6-7+ in Puerto Rico MMI 5-6+ in Dominican Republic MMI 6-6+ in Virgin Islands

  20. ShakeMap #3 Depending on attenuation relation chosen... MMI 6-7+ in Puerto Rico MMI 5-6+ in Dominican Republic MMI 6-6+ in Virgin Islands

  21. Tsunami Observation! Time: OT + 41 mins Height: 0.51 m

  22. Tsunami Observation! Time: OT + 45 mins Height: 0.48 m

  23. Earthquake Finiteness

  24. ShakeMap #4 Depending on attenuation relation chosen... MMI 6-7+ in Puerto Rico MMI 5-6+ in Dominican Republic MMI 6-6+ in Virgin Islands

  25. ShakeMap #4 Depending on attenuation relation chosen... MMI 6-7+ in Puerto Rico MMI 5-6+ in Dominican Republic MMI 6-6+ in Virgin Islands

  26. Tsunami Observation! Time: OT + 120 mins Height: 0.21 m

  27. Recap & Wrap-Up

  28. PAGER

  29. PAGER

  30. Tsunami

  31. Tectonics M8.3, dominantly thrust faulting earthquake (with some oblique motion), at a depth of ~30km. ==>Earthquake consistent with occurrence on subduction thrust interface between Caribbean and North America Plates. At the latitude of the earthquake, the NA plate moves to the WSW w.r.t CR plate at ~20mm/yr. Oblique component of faulting consistent with plate convergence being oblique to plate boundary. Major nearby historic earthquakes in 1787 (M8-8.4), 1918 (M 7.3), 1943 (M 7.8), 1946 (M 8.1). All seem to have involved rupture of the subduction zone interface between NA&CR. The ’18 and ’46 events had documented tsunamis; ’43 did not (1787 too old?). The ’46 event, being further west, caused major destruction mainly in the Dominican Republic.

  32. Talking Points M8.3, dominantly thrust faulting earthquake (with some oblique motion), at a depth of ~30km, consistent with occurrence on subduction thrust interface between Caribbean and North America Plates. PAGER red alert (international response likely necessary) as a result of expected economic losses. Fatalities expected to be in the 10’s range, because major shaking was restricted to Puerto Rico, where seismic building codes exist. Tsunami impact expected to be most severe along the northern PR coast, but may also impact eastern DR, Cuba, Bahamas, Bermuda, Virgin Islands, and parts of the eastern US coast. Major nearby historic earthquakes in 1787 (M8-8.4), 1918 (M 7.3), 1943 (M 7.8), 1946 (M 8.1). All seem to have involved rupture of the subduction zone interface between NA&CR. The ’18 and ’46 events had documented tsunamis; ’43 did not. ’46 had documented impact in New Jersey (Atlantic City) and Florida (Daytona Beach).

  33. Special thanks to: Dave Wald Mike Hearne Lily Siedman Kishor Jaiswal U.S. Geological Survey (Golden) National Earthquake Information Center Eric Geist U.S. Geological Survey (Menlo Park)

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