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This conference explores the changing landscape of media and TV, focusing on the power of the internet, TV, and mobile platforms. Discover the growth and impact of these mediums, the rise of social media and online games, and the future of advertising.
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Power to the People Shifts in Media & TV Ecosystem Globes Media Communications and Advertising Conference
“Nothing is really real, unless it happens on television!” Daniel J. Boorstin
% +6% +0% +2% +5% +1% +4% 130% 95% 73% +4% +0% +19% 99% 94% 86% Internet TV Mobile +6% +16% N/A 95% 68% Internet TV Mobile 37% 60% +8% +8% +8% 55% 45% Internet TV Mobile +1% +0% +5% Internet TV Mobile 97% 94% 43% 123% 99% Internet TV Mobile 89% Internet TV Mobile Television the #1 global Mass Media +8% Growth Penetration 43% Internet Note: TV penetration is based on latest available data and representative countries (Canada, USA for North America, Kenya for Africa, Brazil for Latin America, China, Japan for Asia) Source: PWC Global entertainment and media outlook: 2010 - 2014, World Bank Data, literature research, Booz & Company analysis Booz & Company
The most emotionalising of all Media I can relax, when watching Gives me the feeling of not being alone Touches me deeply Emotional I feel well entertained I get in contact with other people Social I can participate in the life of other people Makes my life richer Informative I receive current information Helps me in everyday life I can have a say in topics Internet TV Source: Media-gratification profiles in comparison November 2009, SevenOne Media, mindline Booz & Company
5 9% 6% 4% -5% -7% -8% -19% -20% Strong rebound after crisis Growth of World-wide Advertising Turnover Growth Compared to Previous Year Along the Main Media Types, 2009/2010 2009 2010 Quelle: PWC Global Entertainment and Media Outlook: 2010 - 2014, Zenith Media Advertising Forecasts Global July 2010 Booz & Company
“Even if you're on the right track, you'll get run over if you just sit there.”Winston Churchill (1874 – 1965) Booz & Company
Social Media and Games Growing Where US Consumers Are Spending Time in Digital % of Time Spent, June ’09 vs. June ’10 Social Media Online Games E-mail June ’09 Portals June ’10 Instant Messaging Videos/Movies Search Software Manufacturers Multi-Category Entertainment Classified/Auctions Source: Nielsen NetView June 2010 Booz & Company
TV and video usage starts to shift Germany Minutes per day; 100% = 230 minutes 95 532 Video 8 9 Non- Linear 10%(22 min) NA 60 28 221 120 15 90%(208 min) 206Linear TV Linear Voice Comm. Video Audio Games Print Internet Other Total UK Minutes per day; 100% = 212 minutes 123 528 Non- Linear Video 35 7 17%(37 min) 28 31 15 205 91 83%(175 min) 32 173 Linear TV Linear Voice Comm. Video Audio Games Print Internet Other Total Note: Video on Internet is both split into linear (e.g. TV live streams) and non-linear (e.g. VoD, Youtube) Source: SevenOne Media 2010 (Germany), OfCom The Consumer’s Digital Day 2010 (UK), Booz & Company Analysis Booz & Company
Online & linear TV Usage – cannibalization starting? Average Daily Active Internet Usage W. Europe 2010, Age/Minutes Per Day Media Mix – “Social Networker” vs. Others US, 2010 Hours/Week -18% +26% 14–29years Non Social Networker Ø121 Social Networker 2.3x +11% +33% 11.5 11.0 Ø52 -16% +25% 30–39 years 14–19 years 20–29 years 30–39 years 40–49 years Online TV Mobile MP3 Magazine Video Game Sources: SevenOne Media 2010, Expert Interviews; Booz & Company analysis Booz & Company
Growth in video usage: Beyond linear TV Video Viewing Time Budgets 2010 Minutes Per Day Video Viewing Time Budgets 2015 FC GERMANY 2015 100% = 230 minutes 100% = ~250 minutes ~10% (25–30 min) 6% (15 min) ~70% (170–190 min) TVScreens 90% (206 min) ~15% (35–40 min) 3% (7 min) OtherScreens ~5% (10–15 min) 1% (2 min)1) Linear Non-linear Linear Non-linear 1) Estimated Sources: SevenOne Media 2010, Expert Interviews; Booz & Company analysis Booz & Company
Competitive landscape getting crowded “TV and Video Ecosystem” Selected Competitors AggregationPlay Own ProgramPlay User Generated Content Play Strategy Mone-tization 1 Transaction-based 2 Subscription-based Potential Expansion Routes 3 Advertising-based Source: Booz & Company analysis Booz & Company
Facebook becoming number one format invader to TV Fan It (NBC) – Social Media CRM Hits Network TV Social Network and Facebook Penetration • NBC launches “Fan It” to turn social media users into a promoters • Participants earn points by chatting about series and steering friends to NBC-related links • The points can be redeemed for rewards including’ • The ‘Fan It’ initiative extends through the 2010–11 season and will involve new and returning shows Turkey 90% 92% UK 82% 88% Netherlands 48% 85% Europe 64% 84% France 74% 81% Germany 58% 79% Russia 19% 83% FacebookPenetration SocialPenetration Source: ComScore, Media Metrix, December 2010 Booz & Company
Online advertising will replace TV as key growth driver Advertising Split by Channel % of Total ad Market; 2008–2013E Online Advertising as a Share of Total Advertising Selection of Countries 2010 Global Europe UK 29% 100% 100% 100% 100% Czech 22% 13% 14% 14% 15% Germany 20% China 19% 26% 32% 37% 40% Poland 18% Finland 17% 18% 18% 10% 11% France 16% Russia 11% 42% 38% 37% 35% Brazil 5% Ukraine 4% 2008 2013F 2008 2013F India 3% Rest Print Online TV Sources: ZenithOptimedia 2010; Booz & Company analysis Booz & Company
Online advertising growing in display–video main driver Breakdown of Online Advertising Revenues 2009-2010 Video Ads as a Share of Total US Display Ads ESTIMATES 32% 29% 11% 11% 25% 21% 38% 40% 18% 14% 51% 49% 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Classified Display Search Source: AOP May 2011, IAB Ireland 2010, IAB AdEx Europe 2009, eMarketer, PwC, Booz & Company analysis Booz & Company
Limited Growth in Core TV Market Turnover of TV and Video Core Business Germany, in Bn €, 2009/2015 CAGR 2009-15 CAGR 2.7% 17.5 16.9 16.3 15.9 15.5 15.2 15.0 3.4 12.8% 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 2.7% 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7 Growth Drivers 3.7 3.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 -5.3% 1.3 1.4 0.3% 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 Transactional Services Pay / CATV fees 1.9% Video Distribution & Rental 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.7 Broadcasting licence fees Advertising 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Zenith 2009, Informa 2009, gez.de 2008, Goldmedia 2008, PWC Global Media & Entertainment Report 2008, Booz & Company analysis Booz & Company
The overall TV/Video Ecosystem significantly larger “TV and Video Ecosystem” Revenues 2015 and Growth 2010–15 in €Bn WESTERN EUROPE CAGR Communication Markets • Fixed 10% - 5.7% CAGR • Mobile 22% - 0.9% CAGR • Broadband 4% + 5.1% CAGR Adjacent Markets 753 +4.0% TV and Video Core Markets 27% 619 -1.4% • DVD/DL/Cinema 3% + 4.8% CAGR • Other media adverti. 10% + 3.9% CAGR • Devices 13% + 6.6% CAGR • eCommerce 17% + 9.5% CAGR • Betting/Gaming 19% +10.6% CAGR 36% 61% +7.8% 51% • Pay TV 4% + 1.1% CAGR • Basic Cable 2% - 3.5% CAGR • Public Fees 3% + 0.9% CAGR • TV Advertising 5% + 3.7% CAGR 13% +1.6% 12% 90 83 2010 2015E Sources: Ovum, Forrester, PwC, ZenithOptimedia, Informa; Booz & Company analysis Booz & Company
How Should Media Companies Respond? Source: Booz & Company analysis Booz & Company
TV Broadcasters: rethink both legs of the business model Value pools growthe further outbroadcasters movefrom their core • Coherent growth story that (re-)builds the most • successful media business model of all times • “Two legs” revenues from marketers and consumers • Growth in audience re-enforcing growth in advertising • Advertising/marketing spend represents the larger opportunity for broadcasters Broader Marketing Spend Other ATL Advertising TV Advertising Value pools growthe further outbroadcasters movefrom their core Starting point and key „right to win“ Audience Gets Content for Free Audience Pays for Content Audience Pays for Commerce and Gambling Reach and Brand B2B B2C Source: Booz & Company analysis Booz & Company
TV & Video Usage: The code has not been cracked Addressable Portable Searchable Measurable Social Participatory Transactional Connected Source: Booz & Company analysis Booz & Company
Loyalty/Reward Programs • Database and Relationship Marketing • Churn Management • … • … Relationships and Continuity/Loyalty Demand and Lead Generation • Adjacent Market Activities • Shopper Marketing • … • … Engagement and Information • Interactive TV offerings • Campaign Driven Events • Social Network based Campaigns • Private Label Media • … • … Awareness and Impressions • Traditional TV/Online Advertising • Local Advertising • Product Placement • Local Inventory • … Attractive value pools outside of traditional TV advertising “TV and Video Ecosystem” Revenues 2015 and Growth 2010–15 in €Bn Relevant Sub-Market Database and Relationship Marketing 3X size of TV Market Shopper Marketing 50% size ofTV Market Value and ROI Private Label Media “=“ size ofTV Market Local Inventory 2.5X size ofTV Market Degree of Customization Sources: WPP, Booz & Company Survey 2009; Booz & Company analysis Booz & Company
Changing Paradigms 1 Care for the core – focus invest on mega brands 2 Secure fair share of eyeballs in new usage segments 3 • Diversify revenue streams – place some bigger bets • Develop pay business • Tap into adjacent markets, e.g. games, e-/t-commerce • Develop services strategy 4 Adapt partner strategy for „co-optition“ based ecosystem Source: Booz & Company analysis Booz & Company
It‘s not about size – it‘s about breaking old conventions