The Daunting Economics of Climate Change

1. The Daunting Economics of Climate Change Presented by Lou Grinzo at the Legislative Briefing of Interfaith IMPACT of NY State, March 10, 2013, Rochester, NY

2. Get a copy of this presentation, including recommended books and web sites, via my blog: The Cost of Energy http://www.grinzo.com/energy/ (This will be repeated later for those who will decide in the next 2 hours they want a copy.)

3. Rule 0: It’s the greenhouse gases, stupid! • The environment reacts to the carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases we pump into it. • These reactions set off a cascade of effects, from warming to climate to water cycle changes to perverse impacts on human infrastructure and society. • The environment is infinitely indifferent to human concerns, desires, reasons, and excuses. The circumstances surrounding emissions mean nothing to the environment. So... We can ignore everything else and focus on greenhouse gas emissions, right? Wrong!!!

4. Rule 1: It’s everything else, too, stupid! • Climate change is the perfect example of a “super wicked problem” because of its complexity, scale, and the timing involved. • We’re triggering feedbacks, e.g. Arctic albedo flip, permafrost melt, that magnify the damage we’re still doing. • We cannot afford to focus on just the science or economics or politics/public policy or moral/ethical aspects of the problem, or we will make horrendously bad choices. • There is no silver bullet! Driving a Prius and changing your light bulbs won’t come close to “fixing the planet”. So... We have to expend resources educating ourselves and acting on several fronts all at once.

5. Rule 2: It’s the timing, stupid! • The least convenient fact: “Love is fleeting but CO2 is forever.” • David Archer: 40% of the warming from our emissions up to 2100 will come after that year. • Zero emissions today = continued warming for decades. • Lou: The goal of limiting warming to 2C by 2100 is a lost dream. • We face long human (psychological and institutional) and physical (infrastructure) delays. • We’ve known that our emissions were a big problem for a long time – just ask LBJ – and have done precious little about it. • Much of the infrastructure we depend on is inconveniently long lived: Vehicles, buildings, electricity plants, etc. • Severely limits our options; no time for leisurely, comfortable changes. So... We have to spend resources on both mitigation and adaptation for decades.

6. Rule 3: It’s the water, stupid! • Climate change will impact human lives primarily not as an increase of a few degrees, but as changes in how much water and of what temperature, shows up where and when. • Dry places get drier, wet places get wetter. • Richard Alley: “It gets warm... ice melts.” • Sea level rise = more and worse tidal surges • Warming oceans = more fuel for coastal storms • Less mountain snow = less summer runoff = more drought in surrounding cities So... We’ll spend an immense amount of money fleeing water or making it appear where and when we need it.

7. Some economic impacts • Munich RE: Climate change has been driving up disaster costs since 1980. • Health and Environment Alliance: Coal burning in Europe = $55 billion/year in increased health care costs. • Carbon Disclosure Project: BAU water practices will put $63 trillion, 45% of global GDP in 2050, at risk. • Rolling (increasingly) loaded dice: Hurricane Sandy: $65 billion, Midwest US drought (2012): $35 billion • Ongoing cost ($, energy, emissions) in the US and around the world to desalinate sea water • Coastal cities and farmland around the world are exposed to storm surges, stronger storms, and salt water intrusion.

8. Some economic impacts • US Pacific Fleet commander: Climate change disruption is “probably the most likely thing that is going to happen . . . that will cripple the security environment...” • UN: 700 million people today face water scarcity. By 2025, 2/3 of humanity will be living in “water stressed conditions” • Power plant shutdowns; shipping on Miss. and the Great Lakes • Ski and other winter recreation areas/industries • Nightmare in the making: Bangladesh • A map of Bangladesh, not a photo of a polar bear, should be the icon for climate change • Low-income, low-lying, coastal country, with half the US population in an area the size of Iowa • 6.5 million climate refugees now, 30 million by 2050

9. What to do about this mess? • Admit we have a problem: We stink at activism and we need to educate ourselves, get more active and a lot more savvy about how we address this immense set of challenges. • We have to be ruthlessly efficient in how we use our very limited resources to force large, powerful entities to act in our collective best interest. • Recognize that the “free market” and “politics” are not our enemies, but tools we should be eager to exercise. • Recognize that we need help from and must work with all levels of society, from individuals through mesoscale entities through national governments.

10. What to do about this mess?, cont’d • Outreach! We all need to be educators and activators! • Don’t confuse action for movement, e.g. we can’t blog our way to a new world; ignore idiocy like “don’t buy gas day” e-mail. • Don’t pull in the wrong direction, e.g. mass conversion to natural gas-fueled vehicles.

11. “Somebody has to do something, and it's just incredibly pathetic that it has to be us.” Jerry Garcia

12. Get a copy of this presentation from my blog: The Cost of Energy http://www.grinzo.com/energy/

13. The following slides include recommended books and web sites, plus a selection of must-see graphs related to climate change. If you have questions, comments, or suggestions you can contact me through the “About” page on my web site, The Cost of Energy, at http://www.grinzo.com/energy/about

14. Recommended Books • Merchants of Doubt by Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway • Eaarth by Bill McKibben • Storms of My Grandchildren by James Hansen • The Weather of the Future by Heidi Cullen • The Long Thaw by David Archer • The Great Disruption by Paul Gilding • World on the Edge by Lester Brown • The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines by Michael E. Mann • Limits to Growthby Donella H. Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis L. Meadows

15. Recommended Web Sites • Skeptical Science, http://www.skepticalscience.com/ • Climate Central, http://www.climatecentral.org/ • Stephen Leahy, International Environmental Journalist, http://stephenleahy.net • “Significant Figures” column by Peter Gleick, http://scienceblogs.com/significantfigures/ • The Cost of Energy, http://www.grinzo.com/energy

16. Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center

17. Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

18. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report, 2001

19. Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.gif

20. Source: https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/longterm

22. From “Restoring the Quality of Our Environment”, Appendix Y4, Section I, by the Environmental Pollution Panel, President’s Science Advisory Committee, November 1965: Through his worldwide civilization, Man is unwittingly conducting a vast geophysical experiment. Within a few generations he is burning the fossil fuels that slowly accumulated in the earth over the past 500 million years. The CO2 produced by this combustion is being injected into the atmosphere; about half of it remains there. The estimated recoverable reserves of fossil fuels are sufficient to produce nearly a 200% increase in the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere. By the year 2000 the increase in atmospheric CO2 will be close to 25%. This may be sufficient to produce measurable and perhaps marked changes in climate, and will almost certainly cause significant changes in the temperature and other properties of the stratosphere. At present it is impossible to predict these effects quantitatively, but recent advances in mathematical modelling of the atmosphere, using large computers, may allow useful predictions with the next 2 or 3 years. ... The climatic changes that may be produced by the increased CO2 content could be deleterious from the point of view of human beings. The possibilities of deliberately bringing about countervailing climatic changes therefore need to be explored. A change in the radiation balance in the opposite direction to that which might result from the increase of atmospheric CO2 could be produced by raising the albedo, or reflectivity, of the earth. Such a change in albedo could be brought about, for example by spreading very small reflecting particles over large oceanic areas. The particles should be sufficiently buoyant so that they will remain close to the sea surface and they should have a high reflectivity, so that even a partial covering of the surface would be adequate to produce a marked change in the amount of reflected sunlight. Rough estimates indicate that enough particles partially to cover a square mile could be produced for perhaps one hundred dollars. Thus a 1% change in reflectivity might be brought about for 500 million dollars a year, particularly if the reflecting particles were spread in low latitudes, where the incoming radiation is concentrated. Considering the extraordinary economic and human importance of climate, costs of this magnitude do not seem excessive. An early development of the needed technology might have other uses, for example in inhibiting the formation of hurricanes in tropical oceanic areas.