Conservation management for an uncertain future Mike Morecroft

1. Conservation management for an uncertain future Mike Morecroft

3. Outline • Science, policy and practise • Conservation and climate change • Forecasting and systems approaches

4. Science and ‘policy’? advice Scientist Policy Maker Questions £ $ €

5. Simplified ‘advice chain’ • Simplified ‘advice web’ Science advisor Policy advisor Decision maker Scientist Practical Conservationist Senior manager Land manager Action!

6. Different niches in the advice web Different requirements e.g. • Science advisor – detailed understanding • Politician – implications for other policy areas • Land manager – practical guidance Complementary expertise • Societal context critical • Learning from experience

7. Aspirational ‘advice web’ Science advisor Policy advisor Decision maker Scientist Practical Conservationist Senior manager Land manager Action!

8. Conservation and climate change(and other environmental changes)

11. Pressures on ecosystems agriculture habitat loss (and gain) fragmentation intensification air pollution development invasive species climate change etc. time

12. The past is not a reliable guide to the future→ we need ‘forecasting’

13. Direct effects of climate change • Shifting distributions • Changing phenology • Disrupted interactions between species • Extreme event effects (e.g. drought / fire) • Rising sea level • CO2 effects: • Fertilisation, water use efficiency, acidification

14. Indirect effects of climate change • Changing agricultural practise / crops • Changing catchment management • (water supply / flood management) • Energy crops • Carbon management • Changing coastal management • Renewable energy (e.g. hydro) Etc!

15. Changes in potential distribution (MONARCH programme 2080’s high scenario) Oblong woodsia Stag beetle Loss Gain Continue

16. Average northward shift of 16 taxa over past 30 years Hickling et al 2006

17. monitoring modelling impacts mitigation adaptation

18. Adaptation Principles

19. EBS Adaptation Principles (Smithers et al, 2009) • Take practical action now • Maintain and increase ecological resilience • Accommodate change • Integrate action across partners and sectors • Develop knowledge and plan strategically

20. Maintain and increase ecological resilience • Conserve range and ecological variability of habitats / species • Maintain existing ecological networks • Create buffer zones around high quality habitats • Take prompt action to control spread of invasive species Accommodate change • Understand change is inevitable • Make space for the natural development of rivers and coasts • Establish ecological networks • Aid gene flow • Consider the role of species translocation / ex-situ conservation • Develop the capacity of institutions • Respond to changing conservation priorities

21. Resilience or accommodation? Changing approach as the climate changes 1°C> 2°C > 3°C> 4°C resilience accommodation enable persistence -------> accept change

22. Examples of Climate change adaptation and mitigation in Natural England • Research and development • Vulnerability assessment • Managed realignment • Habitat heterogeneity guidance • Peatland restoration • Adaptation and mitigation through Environmental Stewardship

23. Investigate and reduce your carbon emissions • Protect soil and water • Increase tree cover • Protect wildlife

24. Examples of Climate change adaptation and mitigation in Natural England • Research and development • Vulnerability assessment • Managed realignment • Habitat heterogeneity guidance • Peatland restoration • Adaptation and mitigation through Environmental Stewardship • Designations (changing species / boundaries) • Habitat networks

25. Role of forecasting and systems approaches

26. Do we still need modelling? • Not always! • Prediction / direction of travel • Explore scenarios • Modelling can help understanding • Compare sensitivities • Identify dependencies • Test interactions and attribution • Investigate response options • Provide visualisation • Quantification e.g. carbon fluxes

27. Climate envelope models • Available data • Large number of species possible • Good for visualisation But • Non-climate limitations on distributions • Dispersal limitations • Non-analagous climates • Etc.

28. Process modelling? • Population studies of rare species • Carbon storage • Catchment management • Dispersal / network design • Components of DGVMs • Land use planning • Etc. • Distribution modelling?

29. Pitfalls for modellers • Over-emphasising prediction vs. exploring scenarios • Over-stating accuracy • Detachment from practical problems

30. climateprojections Uncertainty ecosystem responses X Plan for uncertainty: risk management

31. Coping with uncertainty • No regrets measures • Adaptive management approach • Monitoring and research

32. Conclusions • Beware of simplistic view of ‘policy’ • Shifting emphasis from impacts to adaptation and mitigation • Think in terms of understanding as much as prediction • Embrace uncertainty

33. Acknowledgements • Colleagues especially Humphrey Crick, Nick Macgregor, Simon Duffield • Collaborators and students especially Pam Berry, MandarTrivedi, James Paterson