Food Insecurity, Hunger, and Malnutrition: Necessary Policy and Technology Changes

1. Food Insecurity, Hunger, and Malnutrition: Necessary Policy and Technology Changes Joachim von Braun International Food Policy Research Institute Study week on “Transgenic Plants for Food Security in the Context of Development” The Pontifical Academy of Sciences, Vatican City, May 15, 2009

2. Overview • Ending hunger as a global priority • The food and nutrition crisis expands and deepens • The responses to the crisis by people, policy, and markets • Necessary policy and technology changes

3. Consensus and call to action “The poor… should rise above poverty and wretchedness, and better their condition in life.” (Encyclical, Pope Leo XIII 1891)

4. Approaches to overcome hunger • Development (economic, technological, institutional) • Charity (private, public) • Rights-based approach (human right to food, legal, advocacy) All three have an ethical base Synergies exist, e.g.: blocking 1st undermines 3rd, and cannot easily be compensated for by 2nd .

5. Messages of this presentation • Technology innovations in food and agriculture are cutting across and are pervasive • Agr. tech. powers come through development as part of other innovations • If agr. tech innovations are blocked, development is blocked, poverty and hunger is perpetuated

6. Overview • Ending hunger as a global priority • The food and nutrition crisis expands and deepens • The responses to the crisis by people, policy, and markets • Necessary policy and technology changes

7. Growth matters: hunger - income linkage Hunger and GDP/ capita in developing countries Source: von Braun, regressions based on data from World Bank (2005) and FAO (2005)

8. 1.4 billion people remain poor in the developing world Poverty at $1/day, 2005 PPP Source: Chen and Ravallion 2008.

9. The ultra poor concentrated in SSA People living on $0.75-$1 a day: 485 million People living on $0.50-$0.75 a day: 323 million People living on <$0.50 a day: 162 million Source: Ahmed et al. 2007.

10. Rising number of hungry people in the developing world >1 bil. (in million) WFS target Data source: FAO 2006, 2008, 2009.

11. Progress in “hunger” reduction, Global Hunger Index 2008 vs. 1990lack of calories, child under-nutrition, child death Source:. IFPRI 2008.

12. Who is affected by hunger? Source: UN Millennium Project, Hunger Task Force, 2005.

13. …and average farm sizes are getting smaller Average farm sizes in selected countries Hectares India China Ethiopia Tanzania Sources: Fan and Chan-Kang 2003, FAO Agricultural World Census and Indiastat.

14. Agricultural productivity growth in developing countries: too low! Annual total factor productivity growth, 1992-2003 Small farms can be very productive Source: von Braun et al. 2008.

15. Are we living in unusual times? 1872-2008 prices and population Sources: J. von Braun, based on data from NBER Macrohistory database, BLS CPI database, Godo 2001, OECD 2005, and FAO 2008; Population data from U.S. Census Bureau Int’l database and UN1999.

16. World Population: Population 2050- from 6.7 to 9 Billion - The good news: probably not more than 9 Billion Source: Worldmapper 2009.

17. The development and demographic challenges to “feed the world” • overcome current hunger among 2 Billion • + 2 – 3 Billion population; • + increased demand (income growth from demographic dividend and development) ------------------------- = doubling food (by 2050)

18. Land / Water Constraints • There is at most 12% more arable land available that isn’t presently forested or subject to erosion or desertification (R. Thompson, 2009) • The area of land in farm production could be doubled, but only by massive destruction of forests and loss of biodiversity and carbon sequestration capacity, and • at high marginal costs of investment. ------------------------------- = a (relative) constraint

19. Current Areas of Physical and Economic Water Scarcity Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007.

20. Agriculture and climate change: part of the problem and the solution • Agriculture is part of the problem: Agriculture: 13.5 % of the CO2 equivalents (Transport: 13.1%), and forestry 19% • Agriculture is part of the solution: Biomass; CO2 sequestration; soil management

21. Climate change will affect agriculture • Threat 1: Changes to production with • higher and more variable temperatures • changed precipitation patterns • more extreme events (droughts, floods), etc. • Threat 2: climate change policies - for agriculture and poor farming communities if agriculture is not or not well included in Copenhagen etc.

22. Overview • Ending hunger as a global priority • The food and nutrition crisis expands and deepens • The responses to the crisis by people, policy, and markets • Necessary policy and technology changes

23. Response 1: markets - price spike, 2007-08 Export bans; biofuels, not sharing in times of need Source: Data from FAO 2009 and IMF 2009.

24. Response 2: suffering among the poor Purchasing power: 50-70% of income spent on food and wages do not adjust accordingly Assets and human capital: distressed sale of productive assets, withdrawal of girls from school, etc. + Level of diet (low) and nutritional deficiencies (high) Nutrition is undermined Source: Joachim von Braun 2008.

25. Response 3: Food riots Source: J. von Braun based on news reports. Prices are data from FAO

26. Financial crisis and depression Less capital for agriculture now Higher debt burden for farmers who invested in agriculture expansion Reduced employment and wages of unskilled workers Reduced remittances

27. Response 4: Pledges to address the food crisis (2008/9) Plus 2009 stimulus packages: China: 109 bil. US$ for agriculture India: also increased ++ Source: IFPRI, compiled from news sources and government budgets.

28. Response 5: Looking for Land Source: IFPRI media and reporting analyses Note: Thicker lines reflect investments >100,000 ha; for some thinner lines, data on investment size is not available.

29. Overview • Ending hunger as a global priority • The food and nutrition crisis expands and deepens • The responses to the crisis by people, policy, and markets • Necessary policy and technology changes

30. Strategic agenda Promote pro-poor agriculture growth with technology and institutional innovations Facilitate open trade and reduce market volatility Expand social protection and child nutrition action Action needed for all 3

31. Synergy between technology and institutional arrangements * = Strong role of bio-technology

32. What to do about volatility? Keep trade open at times of global and regional food shortage is a must Regulation of food commodity markets? (as part of financial markets) Establish grain reserves policy at global level (emergency reserve, shared physical reserves, and a virtual reserve > a new institution at global level needed)

33. Use bio-technology to address hunger and food insecurity • Farmers (higher productivity, small farmers can be major beneficiaries) • Consumers (improved health outcomes, reduction in food and health expenditure) • International trade (reduction in global food prices and volatility) • Insurance against food security risks (must have technology in stock)

34. If no investment in Biotech, what are the other options? Alternative 1: Use more environmental capital Alternative 2: Invest more in safety nets and direct action But, these alternatives are not feasible/sustainable

35. Need a functional bio-safety system - evidence based (neither light, nor for blockade) Regulatory decision points Deliberate Release Contained Use Experiments Confined Field Trials Post Release Time

36. Central for long-term agric. growth:Double public agric. R&D to impact poverty CGIAR investment to rise from US$0.5 to US$1.0 billion as part of this expansion And biotech as part of the public science policy strategy Source: von Braun, Shenggen Fan, et al. 2008.

37. Agriculture must be on the climate change agenda, but how? • Investment: agriculture-related investments, as part of a Global Climate Change Fund for technology to adapt • Incentives: C&T and carbon market may conflict with food security; phase in incentives first to reduce emissions, support technol. change • Information: Establish comprehensive information and monitoring services of land use and soils for verification base

38. Different innovation needs and (risk) preferences of poor and rich: reconcile ! 1. Must not compartmentalize innovation (“we do not need it”! “we” / “they”?) as this stops innovation in it’s tracks. 2. Survival and basic needs are absolute (must not weight against relative preferences) 3. Solutions to overcome conflict must be found in the interest of the poor: - access to technology (implicit in right to food) - actively develop pro-poor technology - access to the product benefits (not to prevent the poorest “their” markets; facilitate market segmentation if necessary)

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