Lawson Brigham Alaska Office, U.S. Arctic Research Commission usarc@acsalaska

1. Changing Marine Access in the Arctic Ocean5th International Ice Charting Working Group Meeting 19 – 23 April 2004 • Lawson Brigham • Alaska Office, U.S. Arctic Research Commission • usarc@acsalaska.net Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency of Germany (BSH) Hamburg, Germany

2. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) Project of the Arctic Council • - Evaluate: climate variability, climate change,   and increased UV and their consequences- Use of General Circulation/Global Climate Models • (GCMs) and Greenhouse Gas Scenarios- Project future Arctic changes for:   2020, 2050, and 2080- Sea ice changes for 20th and 21st Centuries- Scientific report & synthesis released early 2005

3. “The Arctic’s Response to Climate Change”(from ACIA) • Increases in winter surface air temperatures • Increases in precipitation • Thawing of previously permanently frozen ground • Reductions in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness • Variations in the ranges of animals and ecosystems • Increases in storm surges and coastal erosion • Increases in Siberian river outflows to the Arctic Ocean • Warming of Arctic oceanic waters • Record low levels of stratospheric ozone • Increases in ground levels of ultra violet radiation

4. Sea Ice • Observational data show • a decrease of coverage • Decrease is • largest in • summer • Decrease is • largest since • late 1980s Sea Ice Extent (km2)

5. 16 Sept. 2002

6. 16 Sept. 2003

7. 16 Sept. 2002 16 Sept. 2003

8. Challenges of the Canadian Archipelagoand the Northwest Passage • GCM resolution constraints • High interannual variability of ice coverage

9. Regional Eastern Arctic Km2) Canadian Ice Service (2004)

10. Regional Eastern Arctic l km2 Canadian Ice Service (2004)

11. Regional Western Arctic (km2) Canadian Ice Service (2004)

13. Climate model projections of sea ice extent : 2000 - 2100 March September MAR SEPT

15. The Northern Sea Route INSROP (1999)

16. INSROP (1999)

18. Northern Sea Route : Navigability projected for 2000 - 2100 Year

20. Summary Points • -  Observed retreat of Arctic sea ice is real.-  GCMs indicate steadily increasing surface air temperatures    in the Arctic.- Extensive & increasing open water areas in summer around the Arctic • Basin (and Alaska) projected throughout the 21st Century.- Sea ice projections for Russia's Northern Sea Route indicate an increasing • length of the navigation season.- Possibility for marine surface navigation in the Central Arctic Ocean in • summer by 2050.- Quantification of Arctic marine access/navigation proving challenging; • testing the limitations of GCMs; recognition of the need for Arctic • regional models.- Arctic Climate Impact Assessment: guide to current and future Arctic • climate  trends & consequences.

21. Relevant Upcoming Events • ACIA Symposium (9-12 November 2004) • ACIA & Arctic Marine Strategic Plan (Ministerial, 15-18 November 2004) • Experts Meeting: Scott Polar Research Institute (September 2004) • International Conference - Future Arctic Marine Transport (Anchorage, Spring/Summer 2005)