Higher Education in New Hampshire and the Economy

1. Higher Education in New Hampshire and the Economy Ross Gittell James R. Carter Professor Whittemore School of Business and Economics University of New Hampshire

2. Topics • High education, per capita income and high technology …”The New Hampshire Way” • Supply of and demand for the college educated in New Hampshire • The economic argument for investment in higher education in New Hampshire • Looking Forward

3. Over the last decade NH ranks 11th of 50 states and 1st in Northeast in employment growth. NH has the 6th highest per capita income in the US (2003) ..income rank improved from 25th three decades ago

4. New Hampshire’s Strong Economic Recovery From Early 2000s Recession • Total Employment NH …Jan04-Jan05 • Total employment grew 2.9% compared to US average of 1.6% (NH ranked 8th highest) Other fast growing states are Nevada, Arizona and Florida which have much lower per capita income • Services employment grew 5% compared to US average of 1.7% (ranked 8th) • High Tech Employment in NH ..June 03 to June 04 • 7.8% growth, NH ranked 4 highest • big turnaround from “tech bust” decline of more than 1/3rd and ranked 50th.. • NH reliant economy ..shift within high tech to growth sectors from commodity manufacturing… growth in engineering and life sciences R&D, engineering services and testing labs and cable and other program distribution

5. The Education Advantage: Educational Attainment and High Technology Employment Concentration

6. Educational Attainment (% of adults with a 4-year college degree) has a strong positive correlation with per capita income across the 50 states. NH is in the top tier…

7. 10 NH Counties Correlation: Higher Education and Income

8. The Supply Side of College-Educated Labor in New Hampshire

10. NH “Imported” in a High Tech/High Per Capita Income EconomyNH attracting skilled workers and entrepreneurs for many reasons(3 of 4 adults with Bachelors+ were born in another state) • Unique Quality and Character of Life • Mountains and Seacoast • Strong Communities (social capital) • New England History and Character • Ranked First in Nation • Favorable Tax Climate (as percent of income) • Safest State (crimes per capita) • Lowest Poverty Rate • Ranked Among Top 3 in US • Child and Family Well Being (Casey, 2003) • Healthiest State (Morgan Quitno, 2003) • Most Livable State (Morgan Quitno, 2003)

11. BUT …State-wide New Hampshire Domestic In-Migration is Slowing • In-migration increased at annual rate of 17%, 1991-96 • Grew at 4% rate in late 1990s • Expected to decline 5% per year 2001-2006 (New England Economic Project) • There are recognized concerns about too much growth and the effect of significant in-migration on sprawl and the character/culture of New Hampshire • There is an economic need and social value in focusing on educating “our own.”

12. Who will work in high tech industries in the future? Age distribution of BA/BS holders in NH compared to other NE states and US… older workers near retirement more likely to have college degree than entry level aged

13. Big decline in percent change in 46-64 as baby boomer generation ages in NH and US and retires

14. The Demand-Side: Higher Education and the economy • Nearly 2 of every 3 new jobs in US and NH will require some college education • While less than 1 of 3 adults currently have college degree in NH

15. “Even in Coos County”….“BA+” Occupational Employment 2000 to 2010 demand is significant

16. Demand-Side Model:Assumptions (all can be varied) • Average tenure in occupation is 20 or 25 years (or 5 or 4 percent turnover per annum) • One-third of all Bachelors requiring jobs in NH will be filled by people with out of state degrees • In-state degree graduates staying to work in state public (70% or 60%) and private (40% and 30%) • High Demand assumes high turnover and low in-state-retention. Low Demand assumes low turnover and high retention. “Mean” demand is the average of High and Low.

17. NH Occupations requiring a Bachelors

18. Business and Related Occupations

19. Education

20. Health and related occupations

21. Information occupations

22. Engineering occupations

23. Social, Community & Arts Occupations

24. “Crosswalk” assumptions..

25. Degree areas in NH projections. Biggest percent gaps in Information sciences, Education, Health and Engineering/Sciences and Math – all need a 50 percent or higher increase in degrees

26. The Economic Case for investment in higher education

27. Public $ Returns on Investment in Higher Education in NH

28. Traditional Aged Students With Limited Access to Higher Education in NH Counties.. the data contrasts with aspirations of surveyed NH HS seniors.. 67% of females and 55% of males to 4-year college

29. Economic Opportunity ..reduce the loss from low HS matriculation to 4-year college in some counties • Each HS Graduating Class “shortcoming” in graduates going to college results in loss of $10 million dollars a year in the state • With multiplier effects in economy …each (20 year) generation loss from low matriculation to 4-year colleges is about $.5B or 1 percent of the state’s overall economy

30. Looking Forward… “other” areas to focus efforts

31. Non-Traditional Students • 165,000 adults report their highest level of education as some college • 50,000 (or 30% in survey) indicated that they expect to obtain a college degree in next five years

32. Female under-representation in tech-fields … a problem and an opportunity in NH

33. Graduate Education matters…NH at “bottom” of “elite” states with high per capita income and high % adults with graduate degrees

34. WSBE Freshman Profile: Exploring the “Brain Drain” Introduction to Business Classes at UNH 2003-2004

35. Survey Respondents85 percent of all students in the course

36. Equal percentages have none, one and two parents who are college graduates

37. Forty percent were born in New Hampshire

38. 54 percent graduated from NH High School (1 of 7 moved into the state during their childhood)

39. 3/4ths said they are likely to go on to graduate school

40. Only about 1/3rd said they are likely to work in NH after graduation.. Compared to just less than 50 percent of NH High School senior students surveyed

41. Work in NH after graduation and WSBE Option Preference: Accounting students most likely to stay in state (46%), International Business students least likely (13%)

42. Where do students plan to work after 10 ten years of employment? Most (1/3rd) expect to work in MA followed by NH (22%). Over ½ plan to work in New England, 1/10th in NY followed by California. Less than 4 percent expect to work abroad.

43. Looking Forward.. The future of the NH economy depends on investment and attainment in education The state can no longer rely on in-migrants to support a high tech, high income economy Significant “returns” can come with: -- increasing matriculation rates of traditional students -- programs to improve access and delivery to non- traditional students -- science, math and engineering and related degrees and increasing female representation in these fields -- increasing graduate education -- retaining more students who go to school in state to work in the economy