Outlook for European forest products markets in 2001-2002

1. Outlook for European forest products markets in 2001-2002 by Ed Pepke Forest Products Marketing Specialist UNECE & FAO, Geneva

2. Topics of presentation • Wood market situation in 2000 and 2001 • Forecasts for 2002 • Implications on utilization of roundwood • UNECE Timber Committee recommendations • Concluding marketing principle • Questions

3. Sources of information • UNECE Timber Committee market statement from October 2001 • UNECE & FAO Timber Bulletin “Forest products annual market review, 2000-2001” • UNECE & FAO TIMBER database

4. UNECE & FAO TIMBER database • Annual forest products statistics from country correspondents, 1964-2000 • Timber Committee forecasts, 2001-2002 • Production, trade and consumption • Available on Timber Committee website’s Market Information Service

5. Forest products market segments • Timber Committee forecasts for: • Sawnwood • Panels • Roundwood • Status of markets for: • Further processed products • For example, Engineered Wood Products

6. UN Economic Commission for Europe Region • Europe (focus of this presentation, 41 countries!) • North America • Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)

7. UNECE Timber Committee outlook • Record levels in 2000 • Weakening markets in 2001 • Improvement forecast initially in 2002 • Uncertainty of 2002 forecasts following the 11 September attacks

8. Increasing globalization effects • Some effects not specific to forest products sector • Sector-specific: • Multi-national buying chains, e.g., DIY • Global product markets • Export-oriented plantations

9. Forest products markets outlook • Sawnwood • Panels • Utilization of roundwood • Value-added products

10. Sawnwood production & consumption – Europe 1000 m3 1

11. Sawnwood consumption – N. America 1000 m3

12. Sawnwood production – CIS 1000 m3

13. Sawnwood exports – Europe 1000 m3

14. Sawnwood exports – North America 1000 m3

15. Sawnwood exports – CIS 1000 m3

16. Sawnwood imports – Europe 1000 m3

17. Sawnwood trade – Europe 1000 m3

18. Panels consumption – Europe 1000 m3

19. MDF and OSB capacity – Europe 1000 m3 Source: European Panel Federation, 2001

20. OSB Production Million m3

21. Panel production – Europe 1000 m3

22. Panel exports – Europe 1000 m3

23. Panel imports – Europe 1000 m3

24. Panels consumption – N. America1984-2002 1000 m3

25. Panels consumption – N. America1984-2002 1000 m3

26. Panels production – CIS 1000 m3

27. Utilization of roundwood – Europe 1000 m3 equivalent

28. Utilization of roundwood – N. America 1000 m3 equivalent

29. Utilization of roundwood – CIS1988-2002 1000 m3 equivalent

30. Further-processed product markets • Example: engineered wood products • Other examples: furniture, builders joinery and millwork • Production and trade increasing rapidly

31. Engineered Wood Products • World glulam production +19% in 2000 • Wooden I-beams now 33% of North American floor area • LVL (Laminated Veneer Lumber) production –6% in 2000 in North America, but +4% growth forecast

32. Rapid growth in further processed products Added value for: • Diversification • Profitability • Avoiding commodities cyclical movements • Shift to low-cost production countries • Reduction in international trade barriers

33. UNECE Timber Committee statement • Expand existing markets • Develop new products to meet evolving needs • Develop new markets for wood products • Increase the wood culture in the UNECE region • Coordinate international promotion of environmental advantages of wood

34. Conclusion:Remember the key marketing principal • Know your market.

35. Know your market. Where is my market ? Hei, up here, tollo poro !

36. Questions?