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Economic Integration: Asian Perspective

Economic Integration: Asian Perspective. Iwan J Azis iazis@adb.org; ija1@cornell.edu Office of Regional Economic Integration (OREI) Asian Development Bank European Institute for Asian Studies (EIAS), October 9, 2013, Brussels. Trade Volume: Asia & World.

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Economic Integration: Asian Perspective

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  1. Economic Integration: Asian Perspective Iwan J Azis iazis@adb.org; ija1@cornell.edu Office of Regional Economic Integration (OREI) Asian Development Bank European Institute for Asian Studies (EIAS), October 9, 2013, Brussels

  2. Trade Volume: Asia & World

  3. Emerging Asia’s Exports: Intraregional & with G2

  4. Intra-regional Exports and demand from “South” up more significantly than demand from EU and the US

  5. Falling Share of Asia’s Exports to EU(except Primary Sector)

  6. Multipliers 2009 PRC

  7. = where

  8. 30 out of 36 > unity 23 out of 36 > unity 2009

  9. More than quadrupled from 56 in 2001 to 250

  10. Recent Trade Initiatives • RCEP • Launched by Leaders from ASEAN and ASEAN’s FTA partners in the margins of the East Asia Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia on 20 November 2012 • Composed of ASEAN+6 • TPP • Members: Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, and the United States. • Completed 18th round of negotiations in Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia, on 15-24 July 2013

  11. CV of 10-Year Bond Yield Spreads Cross-Market Dispersion of Equity Returns Portfolio Holdings—Asia (% share) Portfolio Holdings—Asia (% share)

  12. FDI

  13. Business Cycles • While business cycles in emerging Asian economies began to correlate more with the PRC’s over the past two decades (increasing trade and financial linkages), the degree of output co-movements remained strong between emerging Asian economies and Japan, and significantly higher than that with the PRC and US; • Correlation analysis shows that while the business cycles in Asia’s emerging economies have become more synchronized with those in the PRC over the past two decades, the degree of co-movement with Japan remained higher; • Emerging Asia also became more “coupled” with the US economy since 2003, after “decoupling” in the 10 years from 1993 to 2003.

  14. Progress of Integration in Asia

  15. Japanese banks cushion

  16. Phase 1 Phase 2

  17. LCY Bond Market in Emerging East Asia Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3

  18. Foreign holdings of LCY government bonds

  19. FCY bond issuance slumped Note: G3 bond issuance is defined as gross bond issuance denominated in G3 currencies—US dollar, euro, and Japanese yen. Source: Asia Bond Monitor.

  20. Bond holdings VS bonds outstanding

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