Long-Term Implementation Plan for Managing Wildfires

1. What is a Long Term Implementation Plan? Managing Long Duration Wildfires Workshop Salt Lake City, UT April 30 – May 1, 2008 Missoula, MT May 6-7, 2008

2. Objectives • Define Long Term Implementation Plans (LTIP’s), • Define the purpose of LTIP’s, • Discuss how LTIP’s relate to WFSA’s, WFIP’s, and IAP’s, • Review the contents of LTIP’s, and • Provide an overview of Decision Support Tools.

3. Fire: single most important factor shaping vegetation

4. Highest risk and most complex land management program,Seriousness of potential consequences are greatest Wildland Fire Management

5. Why is Long Term Planning Important? H L 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Time Science and Technology Fire Complexity Operational Capability Decision Support Prescribed Fire Wildland Fire Use

6. Wildland Fire Management Organizational Capability Wildland Fire Management Fire Complexity Fire Environment

7. Wildland Fire Management Wildland Fire Use Operational Response Wildfire Suppression Fire Control Prescribed Fire Multi-focus response Single focus response

8. Strategic Direction Ecological Significance Seriousness of Potential Consequences Climate Change Management Capability Strategic Direction Land Management Fire Complexity Flexible Policy Science, Technology, and Information Management Social, Economic, and Political Concerns

9. Fire Environment • Changes are dramatically affecting wildland fire: • Fuel complexes and fire regimes, • Fire frequency, • Fire behavior, • Area burned, • Duration, • Intensity and severity, • Changing weather conditions,

10. Insect Damage – Northwest States

11. Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic - Colorado

12. Growth of Communities Adjacent to Public Lands – Expansion of Wildland/Urban Interface

13. Several homes are threatened as flames burn a hillside near Running Springs on Tuesday(Robert Durell / Los Angeles Times)October 23, 2007

14. A neighborhood in Lake Arrowhead is reduced to ash by Monday evening. A week after the Southern California blazes began, stubborn flames continue to threaten the area in San Bernardino County.(Don Kelsen / Los Angeles Times)October 22, 2007

15. Hand crews from the U.S. Forest Service retreat from flames Tuesday before the arrival of a water-dropping helicopter in a canyon north of Castaic and west of the 5 Freeway. The Ranch fire in that area has consumed more than 58,000 acres.(Al Seib / Los Angeles Times)October 23, 2007

16. A firefighter from the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection is dwarfed by flames along East Grade Road on Palomar Mountain early Wednesday. The fire was still raging Saturday and had burned 43,000 acres and destroyed nearly 80 homes.(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)October 24, 2007

17. Southwest Large Fires Source: SW Area Coordination Center

18. Ponderosa Pine Douglas-fir Alpine Fir Whitebark Pine Northern Rockies Fire Dynamics Red lines indicate historical averages, blue lines indicate 2007 situations

19. Characteristics of Long Duration Fires Direct Perimeter Response Point or Area Protection Duration Short - Moderate Long Firefighting Success Moderate - Good Low - Fair Management Action focus Tactical operations Strategic planning Management Strategy Minimize Loss – Minimize Area Burned Critical Site Protection Variable Tactics Direct Attack

20. What is a LTIP? A Plan that provides long term management direction for long duration wildfires based on an analysis of all factors affecting fire suppression capability and effectiveness, fiscal management, firefighter and public safety, values to be protected, and management objectives for the fire area.

21. What is a LTIP? continued • LTIP’s are: • Comprehensive management plans, • Developed through collaboration, • Single source for long term management direction, • Developed in response to WFSA’s, • Developed so the complexity of the plan matches that of the fire, • A dynamic document.

22. What is a LTIP? continued • LTIP’s are not: • Developed to manage fires for resource benefits, • An assessment, • A static document.

23. Purpose of LTIP’s • LTIP’s are intended to: • Validate and implement the WFSA, • To meet land and resource management plan objectives and Agency Administrator direction, • Provide long term management direction for long duration wildfires, • Provide direction to any management organization.

24. LTIP Relationships with Other Processes • Direct relationship with WFSA • No specific relationship with WFIP – different strategic objectives, • IAP extends LTIP strategic objectives into short-term operational actions.

25. Comparison of current wildland fire processes Primary Role Comparison of multiple alternatives, documentation of preferred alternative WFSA Documentation of fire use decision, long-term risk assessment, decision support, long-term operational plan WFIP Short-term tactical plan IAP Documentation of course of action consistent with WFSA, long-term risk assessment, decision support, long-term operational plan LTIP

26. Comparison of current wildland fire processes Management Action Focus Strategic Objectives WFSA Protection Strategic Resource Benefits Strategic and Tactical WFIP Resource Benefits and Protection Tactical IAP Protection Strategic and Tactical LTIP

27. Comparison of current wildland fire processes Temporal Scale Spatial Scale WFSA Short to long Incident or complex Short to long Incident or Complex WFIP Short Incident or complex IAP Long Incident or Complex LTIP

28. Comparison of current wildland fire processes Validation Revision/Update When objectives are not being achieved WFSA Daily Daily or as defined Continually in response to conditions WFIP During operational period, new plan competed daily or twice daily New plan competed daily or twice daily IAP Continually in response to conditions Defined Frequency LTIP

29. Comparison of current wildland fire processes Tactical Responses Not primary focus – other processes carry WFSA direction into tactical responses WFSA Full range of tactical responses available, WFIP Full range of tactical responses available, IAP Full range of tactical responses available, However, differ from responses for resource benefit objectives, potentially higher values to be protected and potentially greater urgency and precision in implementation. LTIP

30. LTIP Contents • Fire Description • Objectives • Validation of WFSA alternative • Definition of all involved agencies/organizations • Description of all values that may require protection • Synopis of decision support methodology used • Description of mitigation actions

31. LTIP Contents • Description of management action points • List of resources needed • Delineation of structure protection responsibility • Signatures and Dates • Monitoring Activities • Appendix • Long-Term Risk Assessment and Decision Support

32. Decision-Making Framework • Framing the issue • Data Collection • Data Analysis • Application • Learn and Adjust • Documentation

33. Decision-Making Model Decision-making is not a science but an art. It requires judgment, not calculation.

34. Subjectivity - Objectivity Subjective Objective Personal judgment Scientific basis Factual input Intuitive/Experience input Qualitative Quantitative Increasing applicability as values increase Value dependent upon timeframe

35. Decision Support - Scale • Incident level (tactical) • Short-term temporally and spatially • Fine scale • Incident level (strategic) • Broader scale • Unit or Area level (strategic) • Both short- and long-term scales • National level (strategic) • Long-term scale

36. Decision Making - Incident Level • Application: • Any activities having short-term temporal and small spatial scale, • Completed after ignition, • Example: Tactical operations on a wildland fire, • Applicable Decision Support: • Situational information and short-term predictive information, • Management Focus: Tactical • Applicable Process: • IAP

37. Decision Making - Incident Level • Application: • Decisions about strategic direction for incidents, • Coarser scale, • May occur after ignition, • Example: developing a strategic alternative, • Applicable Decision Support: • Longer term time periods, utilize more quantitative, • Management Focus: Strategic • Applicable Process: • WFSA, WFIP, LTIP, and IAP

38. Decision Making – Unit or Area Level • Application: • Agency Administrators decisions for individual or multiple fires on both a short- and long-term temporal situation. Completed after ignition, • Example: Support assessment of local and regional capabilities, resource availability, and long-term resource allocation and prioritization, • Applicable Decision Support: • Long-term situational and fire spread and behavior projections, • Management Focus: Strategic • Applicable Process: • WFSA, WFIP, and LTIP

39. Decision Making - National Level • Application: • Long-term decisions affecting large areas with varying timeframes, most coarse scale, seldom focuses on single incident, made by Agency heads and National MAC, • Example: National resource availability, geographic and/or agency prioritization, and resource allocation, • Applicable Decision Support: • Predictive Service trends and projection information and Geographic Area fire activity, • Management Focus: Strategic, • Applicable Process: • None specific to this level

40. PROGRAMMATIC PLANNING DECISION - MAKING IMPLEMENTATION Strategic Analysis Tactical Planning Develop AMR Fire Management Plan Fire Management Units Land Use Objectives and Decisions Values, hazards, probabilities Fire Situation, Location, and Cause Short-term Tactical Implementation Plan, Long-term Strategic Implementation Plan, WFIP Fire Program Analysis (FPA) Fire Management Plan Implement Planned Actions Forest Plan Ignition Situation Evaluation and Strategic Objective Determination Develop WFSA and Implementation Plan, as needed Land Management Objectives Suppression or resource benefit objective Decision Support RFR + DSG (dependent on WFSA cost estimate) Assessment of planning and implementation Decision support: FSPRO, RAVAR, SCI, Fire WX, Fire behavior, as needed, or CPR + DSG (dependent on WFSA cost estimate) Assessment of planning and implementation Decision support: FSPRO, RAVAR, SCI, Fire WX, Fire behavior Wildland Fire Management Activities - 2007

41. PROGRAMMATIC PLANNING DECISION - MAKING IMPLEMENTATION Strategic Analysis Tactical Planning Develop AMR Fire Management Plan Fire Management Units Land Use Objectives and Decisions Values, hazards, probabilities Fire Situation, Location, and Cause Short-term Tactical Implementation Plan, Long-term Strategic Implementation Plan, WFIP Fire Program Analysis (FPA) Fire Management Plan Implement Planned Actions Forest Plan Ignition Situation Evaluation and Strategic Objective Determination Develop WFSA and Implementation Plan, as needed Land Management Objectives Suppression or resource benefit objective Decision Support RFR + DSG (dependent on WFSA cost estimate) Assessment of planning and implementation Decision support: FSPRO, RAVAR, SCI, Fire WX, Fire behavior, as needed, or CPR + DSG (dependent on WFSA cost estimate) Assessment of planning and implementation Decision support: FSPRO, RAVAR, SCI, Fire WX, Fire behavior Wildland Fire Management Activities - 2007

42. When is a LTIP Completed? • After a WFSA has been prepared to develop a new strategic alternative, • When a fire is designated as a long duration fire, • When a fire exceeds initial attack, • When initial attack cannot accomplish control goals, • When resource availability does not match fire complexity, • When values to be protected are able to be protected through are point or area protection rather than strictly direct perimeter control,

43. Decision Support – Added Value • How fire may burn (intensity, spread rates), • Fuel conditions, departures from average, • Fire dynamics, • Fire danger and weather analysis, • Fire history reviews, area burned, type of past fires, • Probability of a fire reaching a planning area boundary • Probability of season-ending event,

44. Decision Support – Added Value • Indications of where the fire may spread, or total area that may be burned, • How fast the fire will travel, • How soon the fire may reach critical locations, • Potential fire effects, • Fire duration, • Probability of fire impacting sensitive areas, • Projections of values to be protected in the fire area and identification of values, • Probability of where the fire will spread.

45. Decision Support Tools • FSPro – Fire Spread Probability Model, • RAVAR – Rapid Assessment of Values at Risk, • SCI – Stratified Cost Index, • FARSITE – Fire Area Simulator, • FlamMap – spatial fire behavior and mapping program, • BehavePlus – fire behavior modeling program, • FireFamilyPlus – fire climatology and occurrence analysis program, • RERAP – Rare Event Risk Assessment Process, • NFDRS – National Fire Danger Rating System. • Fuel Moisture Monitoring

46. Questions