Uses and Abuses of Market Research and Opinion Polls South Bank University 1 November2011

1. Uses and Abuses of Market Research and Opinion PollsSouth Bank University1 November2011 Sir Robert Worcester, KBE DL Founder, MORI Chancellor, University of Kent

2. Outline of the Presentation History of market & opinion research Role of market & opinion research Uses and Abuses of research Comments / questions

3. History of Opinion Research • Stories of the Caliph • Plato, Epictetus • Middle Ages • Machiavelli • Hume, Rousseau, Burke, de Tocqueville, Necker, Wieland • Paine, Madison, Hamilton & Jay • MacKinnon, Lippmann • Gallup & Robinson, Crossley & Roper, Durant, Stoetzel & Morgan, ORC, Neilsen, Gallup, NOP, RSL, MORI, Ipsos • Crespi, Page, Shipiro, Zaller, esp. Splichal IJPOR, MRSJ

4. Public Opinion Defined • Public Opinion is “the collective view of a defined population” • A Public Opinion Poll is the collective view [of a representative sample] of a defined population [at a point in time]

5. Opinions • Attitudes • Values A Word about Research • We measure perceptions, not facts • Two kinds of findings we bring to our clients: reality, and misperceptions • Five things we can find: behaviour, knowledge, and… • three levels of ‘views’:

6. Describing “public opinion” • Public opinion is an aggregation of individual opinions • Public opinion reflects majority beliefs • Public opinion is found in the clash of group interests (some term this ‘activated’ public opinion) • Public opinion is media and elite opinion • Public opinion has power • Public opinion is a fiction

7. Why is public opinion important in a democracy? • Policy in democratic states should rest on public opinion • Global opinions about institutions/leaders • Specific policies and priorities • Respect for public opinion is a safeguard against tyranny • Public opinion must at times be mobilised • Public opinion provides clues about culture

8. No lack of critics… A public opinion poll is no substitute for thoughtWarren Buffett How far would Moses have gone if he’d taken a poll in Egypt?Harry S Truman Public opinion polls are rather like children in a garden, digging things up all the time to see how they’re growingJB Priestley

9. …but linked to “real” factors, e.g. The more deprived your neighbourhood, the lower the level of happiness

10. …and linked to “real” factors, e.g. The more upper middle class people in an area, the higher the level of satisfaction

11. Cognitive polyphasia… “We vote the Government in to make these decisions for us” “We are intelligent people, we can make up our own minds, after hearing the facts. Providing we hear the facts” “If the law needs to change then they should do it “Give us the credit for thinking for ourselves” The same person can express apparently contradictory views

12. What is public opinion research?And what is it good for?

13. The role of the pollster • Objective: to measure public opinion systematically and objectively, at a point in time • Quantitative: research defines who, where, does, knows, and thinks what • Qualitative research seeks to discover why people think the way they do and to gain understanding of if, and how, their views might change and the means by which these changes might occur

14. Qualitative • In-depth interviews • Small group discussions • Larger consultation workshops Quantitative • Telephone • Face-to-face • Online Quant and Qual approaches

15. ... a simple business really! All you have to do is: • ask the right questions • of the right sample • add up the figures correctly • and report the findings accurately Survey Research (quant)

16. Six Functions: 1. Maintaining the respondent's co-operation and involvement 2. Communicating to the respondent 3. Helping the respondent to work out how to answer 4. Avoiding bias 5. Making the interviewer's task easier 6. Providing a basis for data processing The art of asking questions

17. Watch out for biased questions… Q: Are you in favour of direct retaliatory action against Franco's piracy? Gallup question, 1937

18. … and phone(y) polls Q How would you vote if there was a General Election tomorrow? Express Straw Poll Express Readers (MORI) General Public (MORI) Sample size c. 70,000 203 1,070 % % % Conservative 91 61 46 Labour 4 26 43 Liberal 2 9 7 Other 3 4 4

19. … and misleading spin WHAT THE MARCH OF DIMES NEWS RELEASE SAID: Mon Dec 14 (HealthDay News) ‘’A poll of about 1,200 mothers found that the leading cause of worry was birth defects (78 percent), followed by concern that stress in their life might harm their baby’s health (74 percent) and wondering whether their baby would be born too soon (71 percent)…The findings were presented Dec. 9 at a meeting of the March of Dimes National communications Advisory Council… WHAT THE NEWS RELEASE DID NOT SAY: “The poll was conducted Nov. 6 to Nov. 13, 2009 using the online software Zoomerang. There were 123 valid responses from the 1,224 women from the March of Dimes Moms e-panel…who were invited by email to answer the 65 questions…the survey was written by Betty Wolder Levin, Ph.D. professor of Public Health, Graduate Center of the City University of New York.”

20. WHAT TIMES HIGHER EDUCATION ARTICLE SAID: Mon 14 Jan 2010 “More that 11,000 full-time undergraduates gave their views on every aspect of university life, from the quality of teaching to student support, social life and institutional facilities…The results of the poll were used to decide the 2009 Times Higher Education Award for Most Improved Student Experience, which went to Queen Mary, University of London.” Queen Mary went from 82nd in 2008 to 51st in 2009, according to the tables accompanying the article. WHAT THE TIMES HIGHER EDUCATION ARTICLE ALSO SAID: The calculation was based on two sets of responses, 2008 and 2009; in 2009, the score for Queen Mary was based on 141 responses to an on-line survey. BUT WHAT IT DIDN’T SAY: The 141 self selecting respondents were from a student body of c. 15,000, with a score of 75.2. The statistical reliability of c. 150 perfectly randomly selected students compared with the same number in the prior year would be c. plus or minus 12, 95 times in 100, in other words, 19 times out of 20 times would rank between 1st and 100th.. … and MORE misleading polls

21. Six Functions: 1. Ensure representation 2. Ensure replicability 3. Eliminate interviewer bias 4. Making the interviewer's task easier 5. Provide a basis for data processing 6. Provide a basis for comparison The science of sampling

22. The Media • Opinion Polls • general public • specialist public Private Companies • Marketing • Public Relations • Employer Management Political Parties • Gauging attitudes to policies, Party leaders Pressure Groups • Stimulate/focus debate, exert pressure Government (Central and Local) • Housing needs, social conditions • Service delivery, charter development Who uses public opinion research?

23. But the future of public opinion research? “…for each new source of information, you need to connect the dots …be sure that what you are getting makes sense.” “Thanks to social media platforms…you are not just interviewing people, but also you have people interacting with each other.“ “as an industry we have moved a lot of data collection activity to online panels.” “Thanks to social media platforms…you are not just interviewing people, but also you have people interacting with each other.“ “We need to have a better understanding of how we can communicate better what we have learned to our clients.“ Dedier Truchot, Chairman, Ipsos “We need to reduce the time delay between what we do and how our clients can use that information.” “We need to reduce the time delay between what we do and how our clients can use that information.” “..increase our ability to act consistently on a worldwide basis.”

24. Robert Worcester Founder, MORI But the future of public opinion research? “Government researchers realising they can’t any longer afford huge in-home random samples.“ “Use of panel surveys expanding.” More multi-method data collection.” “Poorer, but quicker and cheaper data; less interpretive reports, more blending of qual and quant with behavioural data.“ “More use of referendums God help us.“ Bob Worcester Founder, MORI “more willingness to employ research consultants as interpreters and implementers than heretofore, as internal research departments are closed.” “..fewer one-trick ponies in research departments and agencies.”

25. And from the market place? But the future of public opinion research? “business intelligence consultants are likely to take over portions of the market now owned by researchers.” KJ …surveys and other forms of direct questioning will continue to be an important source of insight. RB “Surveys need t be interactive, engaging and entertaining.“MB “…will be a shift to passive methods.“ LN “big step up in realism, e.g. virtual stores/shopping 3D and devices that record what actually happened.“ LN “…greater reliance on behavioural data.“ RB “Always on, more predictive...” “transformation from ad hoc to periodic to continuous tracking and measurement” KJ “…consumers increasingly leave rich data trails.” MB LN (Linda Neville, Coca-Cola; JH Jeff Hunter, General Mills; Reg Barker, Market Strategies; Kees de Jong, SSI, Mike Brochu, GMI

26. When were the fieldwork dates? Was the sample representative and large enough? The more sampling points the better Make sure of where the sample was taken Is it a panel study, face-to-face or a telephone poll? Are the questions unbiased? Are "Don't knows" re-allocated? Are differences statistically significant? Full question wording, and full answer wording Who paid for the poll? Ten Point Guide to Reading the Polls

27. 10 Questions for Management • Whoare the publics of importance to you? • How do these publics regard you now? • What 'facts' are misunderstood? • Are you capitalising on your reputation strengths? • Are you worrying about the wrong reputation problems? • Are there changes necessary in how you conduct your business and talk about yourselves? • Are all your communications reinforcing the kind of reputation you seek? • Are you using the right means to communicate? • Which are the benchmarks and metrics you need to track these? • And, over time, how do the things you and others do and say affect your reputation?

28. Brands, Tracking, Communications: Opinions, Attitudes and Values Professor Sir Robert Worcester Chancellor, University of Kent South Bank Unversity 1 November 2011

29. Outline of the Presentation • Reflections on… • The Nature of Public Opinion • 40 Years of Measuring Brands… • and Tracking • and Communication

30. Public Opinion

31. Defining Public Opinion • ‘Public opinion is the collective view a defined population.’ • ‘Apublic opinion poll is the collective view [of a representative sample] of a defined population.’ • Robert Worcester, 1981

32. Opinions • Attitudes • Values Dealing with Public Opinion • Perceptions, not facts (Epictetus) • Five tools to measure public opinion • Behaviour; Knowledge: “Views”

33. 10 Questions for Management 1.Whoare the publics of importance to you? (T) 2. How do these publics regard you now? (T) 3. What 'facts' are misunderstood? (B) 4. Are you capitalising on your reputation strengths? (B) 5. Are you worrying about the wrong reputation problems? (B) 6. Are there changes necessary in how you conduct your business and talk about yourselves? (C) 7. Are all your communications reinforcing the kind of reputation you seek? (C) • Are you using the right means to communicate? (C) 9. Which are the benchmarks and metrics you need to track these? (T) 10. And, over time, how do the things you and others do and say affect your reputation? (T)

34. B The four ‘brands’(sometimes five)

35. B The ‘Four Image Categories’ • Product Image: the collection of image attributes shared by all brands in a product class, • Brand Image: the unique characteristics that distinguish it from other the brands in the product class, • Brand User Image: that describes the sort of person who uses the brand, and • Corporate Image: the net result of the interaction of all experiences, impressions, beliefs, feelings and knowledge people have about a company

36. B The fifth ‘brand’ • The Image of the Country of (perceived) Ownership of the company that produces the brands and services. • Robert Worcester & Geoffrey Morris, 1973

37. B Companies Reputations: in Perspective Attitudes to Major Companies Industries Details of Image Profile

38. B Definition of “Corporate Reputation” “The net result of the interaction of all experiences, impressions, beliefs, feelings and knowledge people have about a company”… industry, political party, religion…” • Robert Worcester, 1969

39. B Definition of “Corporate Identity” “The visible manifestation of the corporate image.” • Robert Worcester, 1969

40. B Financial stability/ profitability, probity Treatment of staff Social/environmental responsibility Governance Products & services Customer satisfaction Details of Corporate Reputation Corporate Reputation

41. A stakeholder is… “Anyone who can bugger up the business”

42. C Five Steps to Effective Communications • Awareness (Here’s who we are) • Involvement (Here’s what we can do for you) • Knowledge (Here’re the facts) • Persuasion (Here’s what we want you to think) • Action (Here’s what you should do)

43. C Behaviour Research: The Communications Process Perceptions • Measures perceptions& behaviour of target audiences, including intermediaries Audiences e.g. Consumers, MPs, Investors, employees, business decision makers, suppliers, media, analysts, opinion formers Media evaluation:measures thecontent and toneof media output Intermediaries Means eg. Press releases, publications, letters, email, web sites, events, meetings etc • Tests messages & means to improve their effectiveness Messages Objectives • Provides performance indicators for, and feeds back into, strategy & objectives: benchmarks & • metrics Strategies

44. C Effect of Source of Knowledge on Favourability Average of 40 major companies Favourable TOTAL Seen their ads Heard or read about them in the news Seen name on buildings, vehicles Used products/ services Know someone who works there

45. C Importance of communication – CR experts Effectiveness of their Corporate Responsibility Effectiveness of their Communication Base: All CR experts (20), July/August 2006

46. B Attitudes Towards Business - 2007 Q To what extent do you agree or disagree that ... % Disagree % Agree British companies do not payenough attention to their treatmentof the environment Company profits are too high in Britain The main responsibility of companies is to perform competitively, even when this means reducing the number of people they employ Old-established companies make the best products New brands on the market are usually improvements over old-established brands The profits of large companies help to make things better for everyone who uses their products and services Base: British Public (929), August 2007

47. T “The profits of large companies help to make things better for everyone who uses their products and services” Faith in the Benefits of Profits 51% 49% Swing = - 17 35% 27% Source: MORI; Ipsos MORI Base: c. 1,000 Adults throughout Great Britain

48. BT “Company profits in Britain are too high” Level of companies’ profits 59% Agree Swing = - 23 14% Disagree Source: MORI; Ipsos MORI Base: c. 1,000 Adults throughout Great Britain

49. BT “Old-established companies make the best products” Faith in the established brands- 1 39% 48% Agree 32% Swing = - 3 29% Disagree Source: MORI; Ipsos MORI Base: c. 1,000 Adults throughout Great Britain

50. BT “New brands on the market are usually improvements over the old established brands” Faith in the established - 2 41% 39% Agree 37% Swing = +7 29% Disagree Source: MORI; Ipsos MORI Base: c. 1,000 Adults throughout Great Britain