The impact of Monte Carlo simulation: a scientometric analysis of scholarly literature

1. The impact of Monte Carlo simulation: a scientometric analysis of scholarly literature Maria GraziaPia INFN Genova, Italy SNA + MC 2010 Joint International Conference on Supercomputing in Nuclear Applications + Monte Carlo 2010 Maria Grazia Pia1,Tullio Basaglia2,Zane W. Bell3,Paul V. Dressendorfer4 1INFN Sezione di Genova, Italy – 2CERN, Switzerland – 3ORNL, USA – 4IEEE, USA

2. To write or not to write? T. Basaglia, Z. W. Bell, P. V. Dressendorfer, A. Larkin, M.G. Pia, Writing Software or Writing Scientific Articles? IEEE Trans. Nucl. Sci., vol. 55, no. 2, pp. 671-678, 2008 IEEE NSS 2007 Software publications are largely underrepresented in particle/nuclear physics literature w.r.t. hardware ones However, some software publications collect a large number of citations S. Agostinelli et al.,Geant4 - a simulation toolkitNIM A, vol. 506, pp. 250-303, 2003 2079 citations 18 October 2010

3. Features of this study • Thomson-Reuters, ISI Web of Knowledge • Web of Science, Journal Citation Reports • INFN subscription: since 1990 • CERN subscription: since 1970 • Journal web sites • Not all publishers provide full-text search capabilities • Automated analysis • Whenever possible • Manual scan of publication records, abstracts and full-text papers • Some degree of subjectivity • Sample of representative journals in research areas exploiting Monte Carlo simulation • Does not cover the whole scope of physics/engineering literature

4. Not just one champion paper… In the last 5 years (2004-2009) 58% TNS 45%NIM A+B papers mention “simulation” or“Monte Carlo” The number of papers mentioning Monte Carlo or simulation has been increasing in the past 50 years Also the total number of published papers has increased

5. Patterns in TNS papers ~ 60% recent publications mention model* ~ 60% recent publications mention Monte Carlo OR simulation The fraction of papers mentioning these words has been growing over the last 50 years The increase appears to be associated with Monte Carlo and/or simulation Roughly constant fraction of papers mentioning model*, but not mentioning Monte Carlo or simulation

6. Technological journals 1960-2009 Similar fraction of papers mentioning Monte Carlo or simulation in NIM and TNS until ~1990; then larger fraction in TNS, but similar trend of increasing fraction

7. Medical physics journals Physics journals Monte Carlo or Simulation

8. Relative presence in literature Monte Carlo or Simulation

9. What contributes to the increasing popularity of Monte Carlo simulation? Analysis in progress Socio-economic factors, computing facilities, availability of general purpose codes The butterfly effect, IEEE NSS 2010

10. Monte Carlo codes in technological research Papers published in 2004-2009 Fraction of papers mentioning well-known Monte Carlo codes ~ 9% ~ 15% NIM13407papers TNS2630papers

11. Monte Carlo enables physics APS journals, 1990-2008 Papers mentioning well-known Monte Carlo codes Number of citations Full-text search in http://prola.aps.org/

12. Cutting edge of obsolescence GEANT 3 still widely used in physics production (CDF, D0, CLEO, BES, Belle etc.) 2004-2008 Mostly GEANT 3.21, but also older versions Number of citations Not only Geant4! 2004-2008 Geant4 and MCNP more often mentioned in technological journals, GEANT 3 appears less popular in technology research Number of citations

13. The most cited paper The most cited paper of the whole Nuclear Science & Technology categoryis about a Monte Carlo code Source: Thomson-Reuters ISI Web of Knowledge Period: 1970-2010 3rd most cited CERN paper 2nd most cited INFN paper 2nd most cited physics paper in Japan (excluding Review Part. Phys.) stay tuned… still growing!

14. Geographical distribution Citations to Geant4NIM 2003 paper 2003-2010 citations Update:18 October 2010 Top 10 Excluding BaBar All BaBar: 231 papers

15. All Citing institutes Geant4 NIM 2003 paper 2003-2010citations Update:18 October 2010 Top 10 Excluding BaBar and CERN Excluding BaBar

16. Geant4 NIM 2003 paper Citing journals Top 10 Update:18 October 2010 • Technology w/o conf. proc. • HEP w/o conf. proc. • Nuclear Physics w/o proc. • Medical Physics w/o proc. • AstroparticlePhysics w/o proc. Wide scope, including: • Phys. Rev. A/B/C/D/E • Anal. Chem. • Geophys. Res. Lett. • Plasma Sci. Technol. • Appl. Surf. Sci. • Appl. Eng. Agriculture • etc. Main source of citations: HEP and technology journals

17. HEP citations Geant4 NIM 2003 paper • authors (ISI Web) • experiment identification (ISI Web) • manual inspection Semi-automated classification: 59% BaBar physics papers (2004-2008) Plot → using Geant4 + producing archival results + publishing + citing

18. Fluctuation or trend? LHC experiments 2009-2010 Citations to Geant4 NIM 2003 Scaled to end 2010 How will publications by LHC experiments affect the picture in the next years? And other disciplines? Mostly by groups

19. 81%APS 54%NIM-TNS 40%Elsevier Missing citations 2004-2008 publications 51% 64%% 93% 82% articles mentioning Geant4 cite the NIM A 2003 reference 27% TNS papers published in 2007-2008 mentioning Geant4 and 10% NIM A+B ones cite the TNS 2006 reference Full-text search in publishers’ webs

20. Conclusions • Majority of technological literature reports use of simulation and Monte Carlo • Monte Carlo plays a major role in producing physics results • Use of Monte Carlo codes is increasing • Physics community still heavy user of older code GEANT 3 • HEP and Medical Physics researchers are the dominant users of Geant4 • Significant presence of astroparticlecommunity • LHC: now running, how will the citation statistics evolve ? • Many Monte Carlo users do not cite reference for code used in their papers