Applied Critical Thinking (CT)

1. Applied Critical Thinking (CT)

2. Learning Objectives • Examine critical thinking with regard to IA&E activities and enhanced DoD decision-making • Recognize the definition of CT and related tools/models with regard to effective decision-making in the workplace • Demonstrate the value of applying CT knowledge, skills, and abilities in the workplace • Examine how people think, and how this influences their ability to assess problems and develop solutions • Examine circumstances that require use of applied CT to improve decision making • Analyze typical and complex IA&E workplace situations • Choose appropriate CT tools across the spectrum of workplace situations to achieve optimal IA&E related outcomes

3. Thinking “Toolbox” Today’s Focus • Why Critical Thinking? • Complex issues • Dilemma situations • Polarities & tradeoffs • Quantitative & qualitative aspects • Addressing challenges that don’t have “school solutions” DAU.EDU Video – “Thinking About Thinking”

4. Class “Poll” #1What do Critical Thinking, the Faber College motto, and DAU’s ‘favorite phrase’ have in common?

5. Topics • Understanding How People Think • Critical Thinking (CT) Perspectives and Constructs • CT in the Workplace

6. “The defining feature of [the mind’s] System 2 … is that its operations are effortful, and one of its main characteristics is laziness, a reluctance to invest more effort than is strictly necessary.” (Daniel Kahneman) Understanding How People Think

7. Kahneman – System 1 & System 2 • System 1: The mind’s fast, automatic approach to perceiving situations and making decisions -- intuition dominates • System 2: The mind’s slower, analytical approach to evaluating situations and making decisions -- reason dominates “System 1 is...more influential … guiding … [and] ... steering [the mind’s use of] System 2 to a very large extent.” We should employ System 2 for important decisions

8. Willingham - Surface vs Deep Thinking • Surface Thinking • Draws from what you already know • Solves the problem at hand • Does not purposely seek out new or novel ideas • Deep Thinking • Apply like concepts to new problems • Find similarities at the basic level • Looking for broad applications • Applying domain knowledge

9. Thinking “Distortions” * See Pre-Course Readings for details • Cognitive Biases* • Logical Fallacies* • Moods* • Emotions* Happiness -Surprise-Fear -Sadness- Anger -Disgust

10. Class “Poll” #2How often do you use “System 2” in your daily work?

11. Step 1 – Assess the Situation Engage your mind’s System 2/Deep Thinking capability to evaluate potentially important situations Assess potentially important situations carefully and decide when System 2/Deep Thinking should be used Guard against Thinking Distortions, and be aware how they can adversely influence your thinking, and the thinking of others

12. “Too often we … enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought” (John F. Kennedy) Developing a Critical Thinking Mindset

13. Critical Thinking Perspectives Pick One For Discussion • Philosophers: examine the character and quality of the individual and his/her thinking • Psychologists: evaluate various aspects of how people think and behave • Academics: measure quality of thinking against standards • Areas of Convergence: • Open-mindedness highly desirable • Critical Thinking can be distinguished from other types of thinking • Critical Thinking skills can be learned • Challenges: Diverse approaches and teaching methods

14. Three CT Constructs …(there are others) “Critical Thinking” Paul and Elder Fascione DAU Inner Circle: Elements of Thought 2nd Circle: Standards of Thought Outer Circle: Traits of Mind Focus: Thinking about thinking, while thinking, in order to think better • Socratic questioning approach based on core CT skills and corresponding disposition • Core Skills: Interpretation, Analysis, Inference, Evaluation, Explanation, Self-Regulation • Disposition or Orientation: Systematic, Inquisitive, Judicious, Truth-Seeking, Confident in Reasoning, Open-Minded, Analytical • Focus: • CT is more effective than uncritical thinking • Structured and systematic thinking is better than undisciplined thinking • The ability to think critically as acquisition professionals is an on-the-job skill needed to achieve successful acquisition outcomes • Resource: • CLM 058 – Critical Thinking • Key Aspects: • Intellectual Elements (8) • Intellectual Standards (9) • Intellectual Traits (9) • Focus: DoD Acquisition Workforce Personal should employ these key aspects of critical thinking to improve their organization’s performance Critical Thinking should be used in the workplace to improve results

15. Thesis: CT is a critically important workplace skill that everyone should use to solve problems? Anti-Thesis: CT is an overrated, and rarely needed, workplace skillWhat is your Synthesis of these opposing points of view?

16. Step 2 – Decide on Approach When you decide to engage System 2/Deep Thinking: Employ a Critical Thinking Perspective – sciences, applied sciences, humanities, business, etc that works for you Accept that others will use Critical Thinking Perspectives that work for them (a good thing!) Explore and choose a Critical Thinking Construct (or some combination of them) that works for you and stick with it (many others won’t have one)

17. “To every complex question there is a simple answer and it is wrong …” (H. L. Mencken) Deciding When and How to Employ CT in the Workplace How should we employ these CT concepts in the “real world”?

18. Assess the Situation (Step 1) • Importance – How important is the decision outcome to your/your organization? • Influence– How much influence will you (or your organization) have over/in the decision making process? • Time– How much time can be devoted to making the decision? • Green (2-4): “Standard” CT Approach • Yellow (5-7): “Hybrid” CT Approach(es) • Red (8-10): “Full Spectrum” CT Decisions Importance 1 2 3 4 5 5 4 Influence 3 2 1 Decision Matrix Time a key non-quantitative factor in “real world” decision making

19. Decide on Approach (Step 2) Step 1 -- Assess Situation Applied CT Approaches “Standard” “Hybrid” “Full Spectrum” • Assessment: Typical Workplace situation • Key Indicators: • PMO/IPT level importance/impact • Standard policies & procedures apply • Previous experience applies • CT Tools: • Use familiar CT perspective(s) • Use CT construct, if desired • Guard against biases & logical fallacies • Assessment: Challenging Workplace situation • Key Indicators: • USD/PEO/DoD Component level importance/impact • Existing policies & procedures provide decision framework • Limited/analogous experience • CT Tools: • Choose a CT perspective/construct • Use Job Support Tool(s) (JSTs) & decision aids, as required • Be mindful of thinking distortions • Assessment: Unprecedented or Critical Workplace situation • Key Indicators: • SecDef/NSC level importance/impact • Policies & procedures unclear; no agreed decision framework • Little or no experience • CT Tools: • Choose a CT perspective/construct • Choose a Decision Framework(s) • Use JSTs & decision aids • Minimize thinking distortions “Surface Thinking” “Practical Thinking” “Deep Thinking”

20. CT Decision Frameworks Stakeholder Analysis & Engagement Framework Assess Separate People from the Problem Evaluate Interest Based Negotiation Framework Focus on Interests Not Positions Brainstorm • Philosophy • Win-Win problem solving approach • Maximize benefits for all parties Invent Options for Mutual Gain Select Use Objective Criteria

21. IA&E Job Support Tools (JSTs) Obtain these JSTs via the DAU ICOP IA&E Assessment Acq Strat - Int’l Considerations PMO & IPT Int’l Cooperative Programs FMS Systems Acquisition Int’l Business Planning Contractor Team Defense Exportability Domestic and International Acquisition Outcomes These JSTs focus on key IA&E tasks performed in the workplace

22. Applied CT – IA&E Examples Routine FMS cases & ICP Int’l Agreements Surface Thinking Routine TSFD & EC actions Int’l Business Plan (IBP) implementation FMS cases & ICP implementation problems Practical Thinking Precedent-setting TSFD & EC actions IA&E Assessment, Acq Strat, IBP updates IA&E Assessment & Acq Strat (MSA/TMRR) Deep Thinking System-wide DE Integration (TMRR/EMD) Large-scale FMS/ICP initiatives (any phase)

23. Plan of Action/Milestones (Step 3) Commitment Identify Resources Energy Engage Stakeholders • Time • Personnel (workhours & talent) • Funding • Other (facilities, etc.) • PMO/PEO • Local Commands • DoD Component(s) • Office of SecDef • Interagency • Congress Develop POA&M Implement POA&M • Environment • Laws, Regs, Policies • Objectives • Framing Assumptions • Align Resources w/ Scope & Tasks • Conduct Periodic Stakeholder Mtgs • Adjust Tasks & Resources • Integrate Results Conviction Approved Course of Action should be rigorously & systematically implemented

24. Class “Poll” #3Has CT ever helped you in the workplace?If so, how, and how much?

25. “We think that we make our decisions because we have good reasons to make them. Even when it's the other way around. We believe in the reasons, because we've already made the decision …”(Daniel Kahneman) Recognizing and Avoiding Decision Traps

26. Typical Decision Traps Pick One For Discussion Examples: • Contract Strategy • Risk Management Plan • Program Master Schedule Sunk Costs: Money, time or effort already spent with no chance of getting back, regardless of what may happen in the future. Sunk Cost Trap Examples: • Contract vs Program Performance • Cost vs Price • Past Performance vs Experience Framing Trap Status Quo Trap 24

27. Applied CT Tradeoffs CT Improves IA&E Outcomes CT Requires Time, Effort, Resources How will you make these tradeoffs in the workplace? 25

28. Summary • Deciding when and how to use Applied CT is critically important: • The mind uses shortcuts in thinking that work most of the time but negatively impact the quality of key workplace decisions • Everyone is affected (to some degree) by thinking distortions • People (stakeholders) and organizations have different CT perspectives and use different CT constructs/approaches • Applied CT helps recognize and avoid common decision traps • PMOs and IPTs should use Applied CT constructs and approaches to address important, complex IA&E situations in the workplace DAU Int’l Acquisition Community of Practice (ICOP) Link 26

29. Linked Charts

30. CT Perspectives - Philosophers • Approach: Use intellectual frameworksto assess thinking • Socrates: • Cooperative argumentative dialogue between individuals • Use probing and critical questions to stimulate thinking • Plato: • All things (including thinking) have an ideal “form” [framework] • Humans should always try to achieve ideal outcomes (despite the challenges posed by the real world) • Hegel: • Dialectic – reasoning through arguments and counter-arguments • Thesis versus Anti-Thesis leads to Synthesis

31. CT Perspectives – Psychologists • Approach: Use scientific methods to evaluate thinking • Cognitive vs Behavioral Psychology: • Cognitive Psych (internal) – study mind as “information processor” • Behavioral Psych (external) – study human responses to stimuli • Cognitive Psychology -- Key Focus Areas: • Perception • Attention • Language • Memory • Thinking (both conscious and subconscious)

32. CT Perspectives - Academics • Academic: Use multi-disciplinary approach to examine (and teach) thinking • Example -- Graham Allison’s Models of Governmental Decision Making (Cuban Missile Crisis) • Rational Actor: Monolithic national governments use senior-leader-led rational analysis to define/achieve national interests • Organizational (Bureaucratic) Process: National governments compromised of many different internal organizations use bureaucratic processes to define/achieve national interests • Governmental (Palace) Politics: National governments comprised of hierarchically organized senior leaders engage in overlapping bargaining games to define/achieve national interests

33. Status Quo Trap Avoidance Remind yourself of your objectives; status quo may be a barrier Never think of status quo as your only option Examine why you want to stick with this option - would you choose the status quo option if it was not the status quo Evaluate option in terms of the future as well as the present

34. Sunk Cost Trap Avoidance Seek out and listen to other views Examine your reluctance to admit an earlier mistake (smart choices can still have bad outcomes) Look-out for sunk cost bias in others – consider the remaining “to go” costs Reward good decision making – not just good outcomes

35. Framing Trap Avoidance • Don’t automatically accept the initial framing of the problem • Reframe the problem in different ways • Try posing the problem in a neutral that combines losses • Challenge recommendations with different framing