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PROBABILITY

PROBABILITY. Probability. The likelihood or chance of an event occurring If an event is IMPOSSIBLE its probability is ZERO If an event is CERTAIN its probability is ONE So all probabilities lie between 0 and 1 Probabilities can be represented as a fraction, decimal of percentages

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PROBABILITY

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  1. PROBABILITY

  2. Probability • The likelihood or chance of an event occurring • If an event is IMPOSSIBLE its probability is ZERO • If an event is CERTAIN its probability is ONE • So all probabilities lie between 0 and 1 • Probabilities can be represented as a fraction, decimal of percentages Probabilty 0 0.5 1 Impossibe Unlikely Equally Likely Likely Certain

  3. Experimental Probability • Relative Frequency is an estimate of probability • Approaches theoretic probability as the number of trials increases

  4. Theoretical Probability • Key Terms: • Experiment throwing coin die • # possible Outcomes, n(S) 2 6 • Sample Space, S H,T 1,2,3,4,5,6 • Event A (A subset S) getting H getting even # • Probability • The probability of an event A occurring is calculated as: • P(A)= #A/#Outcomes • Examples • One letter selected from excellent consonant • dice • Expectation • The expectation of an event A is the number of times the event A is expected to occur within n number of trials, • E(A)=n x P(A) • coin , 30 tosses expectd # tails • rainfall = 20% , expected # days in sept?

  5. Sample Space Sample Space can be represented as: • List • Grid/Table • Two-Way Table • Venn Diagram • Tree Diagram

  6. Sample Space • LIST: Bag A: 1 Black , 1 white . Bag B: 1 Black, 1 Red One marble is selected from each bag. • Represent the sample space as a LIST • Hence state the probability of choosing the same colours ANSWER:

  7. Sample Space • i)GRID: Two fair dice are rolled and the numbers noted • Represent the sample space on a GRID • Hence state the probability of choosing the same numbers ANSWER:

  8. Sample Space • ii)TABLE: Two fair dice are rolled and the sum of the scores is recorded • Represent the sample space in a TABLE • Hence state the probability of getting an even sum ANSWER:

  9. Sample Space • TWO- WAY TABLE: A survey of Grade 10 students at a small school returned the following results: A student is selected at random, find the probability that: • It is a girl • The student is not good at math • It is a boy who is good at Math 25 20 25 31 56

  10. Sample Space • VENN DIAGRAM: The Venn diagram below shows sports played by students in a class: A student is selected at random, find the probability that the student: • plays basket ball • plays basket ball and tennis

  11. Sample Space • TREE DIAGRAM: Note: tree diagrams show outcomes and probabilities. The outcome is written at the end of each branch and the probability is written on each branch. Represent the following in tree diagrams: • Two coins are tossed • One marble is randomly selected from Bag A with 2 Black & 3 White marbles , then another is selected from Bag B with 5 Black & 2 Red marbles. • The state allows each person to try for their pilot license a maximum of 3 times. The first time Mary goes the probability she passes is 45%, if she goes a second time the probability increases to 53% and on the third chance it increase to 58%.

  12. Sample Space • TREE DIAGRAM: • Answer:

  13. Sample Space • TREE DIAGRAM: • Answer:

  14. Sample Space • TREE DIAGRAM: • Answer:

  15. Types of Events • EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS: a set of event are said to be Exhaustive if together they represent the Sample Space. i.e A,B,C,D are exhaustive if: P(A)+P(B)+P(C)+P(D) = 1 Eg Fair Dice: P(1)+P(2)+P(3)+P(4)+P(5)+P(6)=

  16. Types of Events • COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS: two events are said to be complementary if one of them MUST occur. A’ , read as “A complement” is the event when A does notoccur. A and A’ () are such that: P(A) + P(A’) = 1 • State the complementary event for each of the following • Eg Find the probability of not getting a 4 when a die is tossed P(4) = • Eg. Find the probability that a card selected at random form a deck of cards is not a queen. P(Q’)= A’ A

  17. Types of Events COMPOUND EVENTS: • EXCLUSIVE EVENTS: a set of event are said to be Exclusive (two events would be “Mutually Excusive”) if they cannot occur together. i.e they are disjoint sets • INDEPENDENT EVENTS: a set of event are said to be Independent if the occurrence of one DOES NOT affect the other. • DEPENDENT EVENTS: a set of event are said to be dependent if the occurrence of one DOES affect the other. A B

  18. Types of Events EXCLUSIVE/ INDEPENDENT / DEPENDENT EVENTS • Which of the following pairs are mutually exclusive events? Event A Event B Getting an A* in IGCSE Math Exam Getting an E in IGCSE Math Exam Leslie getting to school late Leslie getting to school on time Abi waking up late Abi getting to school on time Getting a Head on toss 1 of a coin Getting a Tail on toss 1 of a coin Getting a Head on toss 1 of a coin Getting a Tail on toss 2 of a coin • Which of the following pairs are dependent/independent events? Event A Event B Getting a Head on toss 1 of a coin Getting a Tail on toss 2 of a coin Alvin studying for his exams Alvin doing well in his exams Racquel getting an A* in Math Racquel getting an A* in Art Abi waking up late Abi getting to school on time Taking Additional Math Taking Higher Level Math

  19. Probabilities of Compound Events When combining events, one event may or may not have an effect on the other, which may in turn affect related probabilities B B B B A A A A

  20. Examples – Using “Complementary” Probability • The table below show grades of students is a Math Quiz Find the probability that a student selected at random scored at least 2 on the quiz (i)By Theoretical Probability (ii) By Complementary

  21. Examples – Using “Conditional” Probability • The table below show grades of students is a Math Quiz A student selected at random, Given that the student scored more than 3,find the probability that he/she scored 5

  22. Examples- Conditional Probability M F 140 160 B B’ 155 145 300 a. b.

  23. Examples – Using “OR” Probability • A fair die is rolled, find the probability of getting a 3 or a 5. (i)By Sample Space (ii) By OR rule

  24. Examples – Using “AND” Probability • A fair die is rolled twice find the probability of getting a 5 and a 5. (i)By Sample Space (ii) By AND rule

  25. Examples – Using “OR” /“AND” Probability • A fair die is rolled twice find the probability of getting a 3 and a 5. (i)By Sample Space (ii) By AND/OR rule

  26. Mixed Examples • From a pack of playing cards, 1 card is selected. Find the probability of selecting: • A queen or a king • Heart or diamond • A queen or a heart • A queen given that at face card was selected • A card that has a value of at least 3 (if face cards have a value of 10 and Ace has a value of 1)

  27. Mixed Examples • From a pack of playing cards, 1 card is selected noted and replaced, then a 2nd card is selected and noted. Find the probability of selecting: • A queen and then a king • A queen and a king • Heart or diamond • Two cards of same number • Two different cards

  28. All the hungry-bellies began begging for free food (especially Leslie and Samantha). So we did not get to finish these questions • Please write out the remaining examples and leave space for us to discuss tomorrow

  29. Mixed Examples • From a pack of playing cards, 1 card is selected noted , it is NOT replaced, then a 2nd card is selected and noted. Find the probability of selecting: • A queen and then a king • A queen and a king • Heart or diamond • Two cards of same number • Two cards with different numbers

  30. Using Tree Diagrams

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