Demography, Politics and Old Age John A. Vincent

1. Demography, Politics and Old AgeJohn A. Vincent British Society for Gerontology Annual Conference, Newcastle upon Tyne, 4-6 September 2003.

2. Statement of the problem • The CIA (2001) raise the question as to whether intergenerational conflict will arise? They identify electoral politics as creating a key problem • “with ever more electoral power flowing into the hands of the elderly... A rise in intergenerational conflict may not be far behind” (CIA 2001:35) • this presentation explores the reality of the threat of older people dominating electoral politics, stifling economic and cultural creativity and sparking inter-generational conflict.

3. “Historically, the richest developed nations have been growing, capital exporting, philanthropic giants that have projected their power and mores around the world. A quarter-century from now these countries may insteadbe demographically challenged, fiscally starving neutrals who maneuver to avoid expensive international entanglements:• Elder-dominated electorates may be more risk averse, shunning decisiveconfrontations abroad in favor of ad hoc settlements.”(CIA 2001:85)

4. Older People and Politics Project Between May 1999 to May 2000 • Interviews were conducted with politicians, pressure group professionals and activists within the pensioners’ movement. • Focus groups looked at perceptions of the power and influence of older people. • A nationwide face-to-face survey by MORI. • Observation and participation in a wide range of events including forums, public meetings, committee meetings and rallies.

5. Older People and Politics Project This presentation uses published sources - particularly the documents of the parties and politicians themselves to explore the cross-national generality of the findings of the OPPOL study.

6. Key findings from OPPOL • Problems for the political effectiveness of the pensioners’ movement include: • the diversity of interests and fragmentation • organisational problems including leadership and continuity • cultural problems around the perception of old age • the political culture and constitution of the UK.

7. Issues . People are more likely to organise around issues than around age groups. Pensions and rights in the welfare state, around which most older people’s organisations campaign, are seen by their members as universal rights, not ones specific to old age.

8. The political culture and constitution of the UK The British ‘first past the post’ electoral system encourages the dominance of two-party politics. The British political tradition this has been thought of as left and right, that is, as an ideological or class divide. There is thus no tradition of sectional interests such as age groups or occupations seeking their own representation.

9. Compassionate ageism • In Politics and Old Age, we concluded that the pensioners movement was not a powerful political force in British electoral politics. Older people were the subject of compassionate ageism, i.e. important to the electorate but not political actors in their own right as a self articulating political movement.

10. Testing these findings against ‘pensioner power successes’ • Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party success in May 2003 • Massive demonstrations in France against pension “reform” in 1995 and 2003 • Electoral success of Dutch ‘Seniors’ parties in 1994

11. PARTY SEATS VOTES % LAB 0 106318 40.4 SNP 3 59274 22.5 CON 1 24121 9.2 SSP 1 19016 7.2 SSCUP 1 17146 6.5 Lib Dem 1 15494 5.9 GRN 0 12248 4.7 SLP 0 3855 1.5 SUP 0 2147 0.8 IND 0 1265 0.5 SPA 0 1192 0.5 UKIP 0 1009 0.4 Scottish Parliament region. Central Region result: 

12. John Swinburne elected as MSP • “The 'over 60s' in Scotland represent 24% of the electorate and while they are our main target group we are also calling upon their families to go out and vote according to their conscience with their first vote on polling day but to give their SECOND vote to their 'old folks.’ ” • This quote from a SCCUP press conference shows • a direct appeal to ‘compassionate ageism’. • importance of proportional representation.

13. Pensions top of the agenda • A - Abolish poverty for all ScottishSenior Citizens by increasing the basic pension to £150 per week • B-  Banish means testing for all ScottishSenior Citizens • C -  Council Tax to be replaced by a fairer local income tax 

14. Leadership - Swinburne’s campaign depended on resources derived from other areas of life (in this case football). • Fragmentation - as SCCUP was launched another Pensioners Party was also being launched in Fife. • Expertise - Swinburne describes himself as politically naive, lacking expertise, and having to seek advice from the Electoral Commission. • Ageism - Swinburne was not treated seriously in the campaign by important sections of the Scottish media. They were portrayed as “grumpy old men in cardigans” by the Scotsman.

15. France “Le Pourvoir Gris” by J-P Viriot Durandal. (2003) • the French welfare state creates particular kinds of interests • grey power as a force in formation, • It is struggling with the fragmentation and problem of making strategic alliances, • There are cultural and symbolic obstacles as well as the organisational problems of radicalising older people. • older people are creating new ‘espaces d’action’, new agendas and new forms collective action which will themselves play a role in coming to define ‘grey power’.

16. France • fragmentation of French older politics. • despite this fragmentation massive demonstrations and strike action have been mobilised. • French activism focuses on opposition to pension ‘reform’. • The opposition to these proposals are led primarily by Trade Unions. • Most political pundits believe that the new French government will pass the proposed legislation and the Union led opposition will not have the success it did in 1995 in forcing a government retreat.

17. organisations involved in the National Week of retired and older people in the Department du Nord. • Association Jeunes Retraités • Centre d'Information et de Coordination de l'Action Sociale - CICAS Nord • Comité Départemental des Retraités et Personnes Agées - CODERPA • Conseil Général du Nord • Direction Départementale des Affaires Sanitaires et Sociales - DDASS • Fédération des Clubs d'Aînés du Nord - FEDECRAN

18. Grandparenfant • Les Petits Frères des Pauvres • Mouvement Chrétien des Retraités • Union Nationale des Centres Communaux d'Action Sociale - UNCCAS • Union Régionale du Nord des Associations de Retraités - URNAR • Union Régionale Interfédérale des Organismes Privés Sanitaires et Sociaux – URIOPSS

19. Netherlands • The Algemeen Ouderen Verbond (AOV) is the Dutch “General Seniors Party, founded in December 1993, by Martin Batenburg a seventy year old pensioner. They won 5 seats in the City council of Eindhoven. 3rd May 1994 they won 3,6% of the vote and 6 seats in Parliament. • Another new party for the elderly, the Unie 55+, also won a seat at that election.

20. Netherlands • The party did not survive its success and split and lost its seats. It has joined in an electoral alliance with the Unie 55+. • Succeeded through proportional representation and disillusion with the mainstream parties. Disillusion which resulted in electoral meltdown the short-lived electoral success of Pim Fortuyn’s party.

21. United States AARP (American Association of Retired Persons). • professional organisation, sustained by membership payments and commercial activities. • access to life assurance benefits and travel and drug discounts as well as pressure group activities and policy making. • highly influential organisation of 35 million members.

24. USA: militaristic images • Young v. Old: Intergenerational combat in the 21st century MacManus and Turner (1996) • Hamil-Luke, Jenifer (2001) “The prospects of Age War: Inequality between (and within) Age Groups” Social Science Research. 30:386-400. • Street, D. (1997) ‘Apocalyptic Demography Meets Apocalyptic Politics: The British Society of Gerontology Conference Elder Power in the 21st Century. Bristol 19-21 September 1997.

25. Older peoples’ use of the vote • Achenbaum (1997) argues that in the USA old people don’t vote differently than rest of population, although they tend to vote more. Our work suggests this is also true for Britain. • Older Voters in both the USA and the UK do not tend to vote as an interest group. Older people tend not act collectively or vote together, even although many share common experiences of dashed expectations of income and support in old age.

26. Why the CIA is wrong • They confuse electoral power of older people with the popularity of the welfare state. Public expenditure on health care and pensions are not sectional interests of older people to be pursued through the ballot box. They are rather the collective interests of the great majority of working people who will tend to use their political influence to protect their entitlements to welfare and pensions.

27. The CIA is sociologically naive • Re-ification is characterising society as if it were an individual. Personalities and character traits belong to individuals not society. Counter intuitive social processes might be at work, generational blocks to aspiring youth might lead to a culturally creative society. • It is ageist to characterise older people as lacking innovation and creativity. Across Europe, older people are more politically conservative but there is a key difference between conservative as avoiding change and conservative as supporting right wing policies and programmes.

28. Comparisons The need in the United States for older people to act collectively to secure for themselves health insurance, cheap drugs, and a minimal safety net is because of the paucity of the state provision. Hence it is possible, in the US context, to portray older people’s solidarity as generational conflict. The different mixes of health, welfare, and pension provision in the UK, Netherlands and France militate against collective action by older people and thus any illusion of intergenerational conflict.

29. Conclusions • The electoral success of pensioner parties depends on constitutional regimes and the structure of politics. It takes forms of proportional representation for older people’s parties to get elected and their success is based in other resources than simply the appeal to older peoples’ material interests. • PR enables fringe parties get elected through a broader disillusion with conventional politics

30. Conclusion • It is difficult to find evidence of a growth in the electoral strength of the older age groups. Evidence for an apparent lack of influence of older people, on the other hand, is twofold, first, in the character and activities of older people’s organisations and, second, in the low priority given by party political elites to older voters.