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Stratospheric QBO Under Global Warming

Stratospheric QBO Under Global Warming. Y. Kawatani 1 , K. Hamilton 2 and S. Watanabe 1 1 JAMSTEC Research Institute for Global Change, 2 IPRC Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences , in press.

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Stratospheric QBO Under Global Warming

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  1. Stratospheric QBO Under Global Warming • Y. Kawatani1, K. Hamilton2 and S. Watanabe1 • 1JAMSTEC Research Institute for Global Change, 2IPRC • Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, in press Zonal-mean zonal wind over the equator for (a) present day and (b) double CO2 conditions. Results shown for pressures between 100 and 5 hPa corresponding to heights of about 18 to 35 km. The color bar is labeled in m/s and the contour interval is 5 m/s. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) dominates the circulation in the tropical stratosphere and impacts the large-scale seasonal mean climate not only in the stratosphere, but also through the troposphere. Simulating the QBO has been a challenge for comprehensive global models, making predictions about how the QBO may respond to global warming very problematic. A sufficiently high resolution version of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), however, has recently been shown to simulate a stratospheric oscillation that is very similar to the observed QBO. This study uses the atmospheric component of MIROC to simulate the effects of global warming on the QBO: (a) shows 30 years of equatorial zonal wind in a present-day control run; (b) shows results for a simulation in which sea surface temperature and atmospheric composition have been modified to be appropriate for an equilibrium climate with twice present-day atmospheric CO2 concentration. A comparison of the two simulations shows that global warming should lead to a weaker QBO with longer and more irregular periods.

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