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Tema 3 – SFM och klimat

Tema 3 – SFM och klimat. Hypotes: Det finns både synergier och motstående intressen/processer mellan SFM och klimat-mitigering/anpassning. Exempel på delhypoteser: Mer kolbidning i bättre skött skog (SFM). eller ”Bättre skog” (SFM) på degraderad mark tar bort

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Tema 3 – SFM och klimat

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  1. Tema 3 – SFM och klimat Hypotes: Det finns både synergier och motstående intressen/processer mellan SFM och klimat-mitigering/anpassning. Exempel på delhypoteser: Mer kolbidning i bättre skött skog (SFM). eller ”Bättre skog” (SFM) på degraderad mark tar bort utkomst i sekundärskogen för fattiga bönder. eller Mer växande skog (SFM) använer mer vatten som behövs för nedströms mat/energiodling. Anders Malmer, Inst. f. skogens ekologi och skötsel, SLU, Umeå, m.fl

  2. Reviewsökning: 1085 reviewgranskade rapporter om SFM – klimatc:a 200 av dem relevanta< 50% primärdatafå multidiciplinära – dessa publiceras i högre utsträckning i institutsrapporter m.m.Primary data / model / scientific review / policy review / policy only & opinionBriefs/RapporterSFM – bioenergiSFM – REDD – bränderHinder för klmatrelaterat SFM i Burkina Faso Tema 3 – SFM och klimat

  3. Stable or % of changing forest cover can be different things in different countries and have very varied background

  4. ”Yesterdays loss can be tomorrows’ gain – degraded, deforested and degraded areas can be restored for a multitude of benefits...” (World Resources Institute)

  5. Vietnam is a country with increasing forest cover The old forest is gone for a long time as is also the secondaty forest increasingly. But in the villages the families economies are growing with a growing market for pulp- and fire wood. Sandewall et al., Ambio in press

  6. Mans’ memory is short – now > 10 yr since the last severe El Niño droughts and fire is marginal on the agenda... Natural forests with logging gaps and secondary forests are more prone to fire because they dry out even with annually occurring short dry periods (weeks) Explains high fire incidense in forest remaining even after hold in deforestation In longer droughts (months) with strong El Niño events the regional fire effects are catastrofic (eg. SE Asia, C America and the Amazon) Once burned, the new secondary vegetation is even more fire prone and fire is soon repeated and so on... Part of conceptual model on fire risk and land degradation, Malmer et al., 2005

  7. Many fires with expanding agriculture and with forests in mixed landscapes • Large increase in fire irrespective of type of agriculture established • Fire incidense remain high in landscapes with less managed/intensive land use irrespective of fraction used Aragão and Shimabukuro in Science June 2010

  8. Speculating in future developments in forest cover? • More countries will have increasing forest cover (eg. Indochina and Miombo countries in SE Africa?) • Other countries will still have decreasing forest cover (Brazil?) • Trees and small forests increasing components in many landscapes? (More densly populated countries) • Sustainable deforestation??

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