4 th Africa Symposium on Statistical Development, Luanda, Angola, 13 February 2009

1. Mobilising Africa’s Post-conflict Countries to Undertake Censuses in the 2010 Round of Population and Housing Censuses: What must be done? 4th Africa Symposium on Statistical Development, Luanda, Angola, 13 February 2009 Pali Lehohla:Statistician-General Statistics South Africa, South Africa

2. Impact of conflict • Conflicts bring appalling human suffering and distress • They depleted physical infrastructure- transport, energy, telecommunications, public buildings, and housing • They usually deeply affect the economic structure Institutions often collapse • Conflict is a vector of HIV/AIDS. Risks are substantially increased because of population movements, sometimes across borders, to risky sexual behaviors by many combatants, to the interruption of prevention activities and to the collapse of the health system. • Civil conflicts destroy social capital and brew mistrust, fear.

3. Conflict and Censuses in Africa • Like a census, a war affects everyone in the affected area but the two cannot co-exist because censuses can only happen in environments of trust. • According to the African Capacity Building Foundation study, effective and efficient coordination of efforts or lack of it makes a significant difference in post-conflict reconstruction and capacity building. • A population census is a gargantuan undertaking that requires the full focus of the nation, the deployment of massive resources and support of all good-intentioned partners. • It’s value chain is loaded with complex yet complementary activities requiring prudent planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation • Countries emerging from conflict usually face enormous challenges structurally, economically and capacity-wise • The challenges often render these countries incapable of undertaking censuses for a period of time during and after the conflict

4. Support to Post-conflict Countries Undertaking Censuses.Sudan 2008 Census: A Case Study • Monitoring and Observation Committee (MOC) created • Some eminent members of the African statistics society invited to share experiences • StatCom Africa used to makemore census experts • South Africa and Egypt got more interested and involved • Invitation extended too close to enumeration in April 2007, census schedule for November 2007 although finally rescheduled to April 2008 • Mozambique, Ghana, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Uganda, Kenya, , Egypt, Ethiopia sent monitors following the invitation • Australia, India and Indonesia joined monitoring team • UNFPA, DFID, USAID provided support

5. Support-related lessons from the case studies • Donor agencies can be relied upon for financial and technical support • No standard framework for coordinating support and sharing expertise • No database of census management expertise on the African continent • No database of census best practice on the African continent • Country-to-country collaboration and support very minimal in Africa

6. Benefits of Undertaking a Census in Countries Emerging from Conflict • Census unifies the nation as it mobilises people around one noble course • Census creates an environment of trust through its massive communication programmes • Census helps society restore its culture after the strife • Census helps repair depleted statistical infrastructure • Census heighten society’s level of statistical literacy • Census bring about temporal economic relief to the unemployed • Most importantly, census mines information necessary for reconstruction and development programmes.

7. Census-related Challenges Facing Countries Emerging From Conflict • Post-war countries face the biggest acid test of establishing statistical systems from scratch and this is a costly exercise. • Lack of expertise and limited human resources, • Lack of financial resources due to competing reconstruction and development priorities: Census-taking lower in the hierarchy of priorities • Lack of documentation from previous censuses • In certain instances the absence of a legal basis as is the case with Eritrea • Lack of appreciation and knowledge of census by the public • Lack of trust in government by the public

8. Support to Post-Conflict Countries: The Status Quo and Inherent Problems • Most African governments may feel not obliged to conduct censuses • Donors help mainly with funding and sometimes offer technical support but tend to impose their own conditions on the recipient. The latter may compromise the professional independence of the statistics agency. • Only a few African countries are able to offer technical assistance to needy countries due to absence of a binding intra-Africa support framework • Countries needing help are often not sure where to run to for technical help due to lack of a coordinating body for census skills exchange in Africa • Ad hoc collaborations are the order of the day in the African statistical fraternity, however the ECA and ASSD are starting to play a critical role in addressing this problem

9. How to Make Sure Post-conflict Countries Undertake Censuses in the 2010 Round • Political leaders must be lobbied to set up and finance statistics institutions where they do not exist • Statistical offices must be helped to appreciate the value of conducting censuses regularly • Heads of statistics’ offices must ensure legal frameworks are in place to make census-taking mandatory • Heads of statistical offices must be encouraged and assisted to participate in national, regional and international statistical forums like the ASSD • The ASSD must develop an African Census Peer Support Framework (ACPSF), a mechanism by which all African countries including those emerging from conflict can be assisted

10. Elements of the Proposed ACPSM • The ACPSM must be developed and accepted by African countries utilising the ASSD forum • Under the auspices of ASSD, a task team must be appointed to develop the ACPSM. • Support must be requested formally by the needy country • Nature of support needed from peers must be very clear and be according to the census value chain • Support must be coordinated centrally by a responsible dedicated entity like the ECA • The ACPSM must be sufficiently funded and the AfDB has a big role to play in this regard • A best practice inventory must be kept and regularly updated to enable optimal sharing of census expertise in Africa • The coordinating body (ECA) must develop an ACPSM implementation framework.