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Load Research Project Review

Load Research Project Review. Brief History of Load Research and Profiling in ERCOT Current load profile models were built prior to Market Open using load research data available at the time Available data covered a mixed bag of time frames and geographies

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Load Research Project Review

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  1. Load Research Project Review Brief History of Load Research and Profiling in ERCOT • Current load profile models were built prior to Market Open using load research data available at the time • Available data covered a mixed bag of time frames and geographies • Samples were designed to reflect tariff based populations • Analysis was based on anticipated profile assignments • PUCT Rule on Load Profiling and Research went into effect April 2003 • Identified ERCOT as responsible for load research sample design and analysis, and • TDSPS as responsible for data collection • Mid-2003 ERCOT initiated a project to • Acquire load research sample design and analysis tools • Build a system to manage load research samples: sample point tracking and data collection processing and tracking • ERCOT adopted a plan with market buy-in to initially install “half-sized” samples across all profile types and weather zones • Sample points were selected and sent to TDSPs in May 2004 • Sample IDR installations took about 6 months to complete

  2. Load Research Project Review Brief History of Load Research and Profiling in ERCOT (continued) • Initial comparison of new load research estimates to profile models was presented to PWG in March 2006 based on then 2005 profile assignments • Final load research comparison analysis based on 2006 profile assignments has been completed and is posted for last month’s PWG and this workshop • A lot has happened since the time the original profile models were developed! • Initial and multiple iterations of annual validation of profile assignments has occurred • High rates of assignment migration each time (on the order of 1,000,000 changes each time) • Continuing series of assignment algorithm changes culminating in a significant change in the Residential algorithm for this year’s AV cycle • IDR threshold lowered from 1,000 kW to 700 kW • About 1,500 ESIIDs formerly being profiled are now settled with actual IDR data • Bottom line: Current Profile models are well out of date and and are no longer representative of the populations which they are being used to settle

  3. Load Research Project Review High level overview of load research analysis findings • Load research results differ significantly from current profile models in both magnitude and shape • Magnitude differences are seen in daily kWh comparisons • Shape differences are seen in the percent of daily kWh allocated to each interval within the day

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