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Modeling and Observing Kepler Planetary Systems with Large TTVs

Modeling and Observing Kepler Planetary Systems with Large TTVs. *Sloan Fellowship. Daniel Fabrycky*, Eric Agol , Kevin Stevenson, Sarah Ballard, Roberto Sanchis -Ojeda, Joshua Winn, Matthew Holman, Tsevi Mazeh , Kepler Team and the World. *U Chicago . Transit Timing Variations.

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Modeling and Observing Kepler Planetary Systems with Large TTVs

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  1. Modeling and Observing KeplerPlanetary Systems with Large TTVs *Sloan Fellowship Daniel Fabrycky*, Eric Agol, Kevin Stevenson, Sarah Ballard, Roberto Sanchis-Ojeda, Joshua Winn, Matthew Holman, TseviMazeh, Kepler Team and the World *U Chicago

  2. Transit Timing Variations Agol et al. 2005, Murray & Holman 2005

  3. The Promise Agol, Steffen, Sari, Clarkson (2005)

  4. The Frustration TrES-2 HD 209458 Steffen & Agol 2005 Agol & Steffen 2007

  5. The Frustration Miller-Ricci+07 HD209458 Miller-Ricci+07 HD189733 Miller-Ricci+06 HD189733 Ballard+10 GJ436 Adams+10 OGLE-TR-113 Gibson+10 TrES-3 Gibson+10 HAT-P-3 Adams+10 OGLE-TR-113 Bean 09 CoRoT-exo-1 Csizmadia+10 CoRoT-exo-1

  6. The Frustration GJ 1214 Carter et al. 2010

  7. Architectures of Other Planetary Systems Basic facts: • Planet number • Masses • Radii Dynamical properties: • Periods (n.b.: their ratios) • Eccentricities • Mutual Inclinations w/ TTV w/ TTV w/ TTV w/ TDV Science Goals: Mass-Radius measurements (Composition) Planet Discovery / Full Architectures Resonant dynamics  Migration Constraints

  8. Results from Kepler • Unique masses: Kepler-9, 11, 18, 30, 36, KOI-1574 (Ofir et al.), KOI-152 (Jontof-Hutter et al.), KOI-620 (Masuda),KOI-314 (Kipping et al.) • Anti-correlation to confirm planethood(Ford et al. 2012, Steffen et al. 2013, Fabrycky et al. 2012, Ji-Wei Xie et al. arxiv:1308.3751, 1309.2329) • Anti-correlation to measure mass and eccentricity distributions(Lithwick et al. 2013, Hadden & Lithwick 2013, Xie 2014). • Clearinghouse of TTV and TDV curves (Mazehet al. 2013)

  9. Kepler 9 • 2 gas giants, TTV’ing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)

  10. Kepler 9 • 2 gas giants, TTV’ing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)

  11. Kepler 9 • 2 gas giants, TTV’ing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)

  12. Kepler 9 • 2 gas giants, TTV’ing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)

  13. Kepler 9 • 2 gas giants, TTV’ing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)

  14. Kepler 9 • 2 gas giants, TTV’ing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)

  15. Kepler 9 • 2 gas giants, TTV’ing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)

  16. Kepler 9 • 2 gas giants, TTV’ing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)

  17. Kepler 9 MCMC of TTV published (w/ RVs) Mb=42.3±0.6 ME* 80±4 ME Mc= 29.1±0.6 ME* 54±8 ME *(1.0 Mhost assumed) • 2 gas giants, TTV’ing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010) • See also Ofir & Dreizler

  18. Fits to all TTVs • Chose the large-amplitude, distinctive TTV shapes. • Found dynamical fits to them, and explored uncertainties by DEMCMC • Extrapolated that cloud of fits to future times, for follow-up observations • Needed to invoke additional planets in some multi-transiting systems.

  19. MCMC chains

  20. Differential Evolution MCMC

  21. Kepler-30 Fabrycky, Ford, Steffen et al. 2012

  22. Systems with Distinctive O-C • KOI-872 (Nesvorny et al. 2012) P/P = 1.696

  23. Systems with Distinctive O-C • KOI-872 (Nesvorny et al. 2012) P/P = 1.696

  24. KOI-872 (Nesvorny et al. 2012) P/P = 1.697 P/P = 2.43 Kepler-19 Ballard, Fabrycky, et al. 2011 Inversion including inclination: Nesvorny et al. (2008,09,10)

  25. Spitzer TTV program Spitzer program. • Spitzer program p10127 • Not hot Jupiters • Deep transits • Long-period = Long durations

  26. KOI-1426 d c b Unique solutions KOI-872 (Nesvorny+12) KOI-1474 (Dawson+12) KOI-142(Nesvorny+13)

  27. Cabrera et al. 2013, Agol et al. in prep

  28. KOI-351 = Kepler 90 Kepler-90h; P=330 days

  29. Planes: 13,600km Neutrinos: 11,100km Time zones: 12 http://www.gcmap.com/

  30. KOINet:Carolina van Essen (Gottingen / Stefan Dreizler) Other efforts: Ciardi (KFOP) Pepper (colleges) Santerne Gary (amateur) # targets: A few dozen. Depends strongly on precision. http://www.gcmap.com/

  31. Summary • Kepler is a machine for finding multiplanet systems, both multi-transiting and perturbed systems • TTVs are unveiling full system architectures and additional planets, even in multi-transiting systems. • Following these transit times, world-wide, will be a major effort and legacy of Kepler.

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