Conservation Resources in the (Draft) 5 th Northwest Power Plan

1. Conservation Resourcesin the (Draft) 5th Northwest Power Plan Tom Eckman Manager, Conservation Resources Northwest Power and Conservation Council

2. What You’re About To Hear • What We’ve Done • How much is left to do • What does it cost • Where is it • What’s it worth • What it means to you - Utility “Targets”

3. 20 Years of Progress – Bonneville and Utility Accomplishments Since 1980 the Region’s Utilities and Bonneville Acquired Over 1750 aMW of Savings

4. 20 Years of Progress – State Energy Code Accomplishments Since 1980 State and Local Energy Codes Have Produced Over 440 aMW of Savings.

5. 20 Years of Progress – Federal Energy Efficiency Standards Accomplishments Since 1980 Federal Appliance and Manufactured Housing Energy Efficiency Standards Have Produced Over 420 aMW of Savings.

6. PNW Savings from Codes and Efficiency Standards 1980-2002

7. 20 Years of Progress – Total PNW Conservation Savings Since 1980 Utility & BPA Programs, Energy Codes & Federal Efficiency Standards Have Produced Over 2600 aMW of Savings.

8. So What’s 2600 aMW? • It’s enough electricity to serve the entire state of Idaho • In the year 2002 alone, it saved the region’s consumers $1.6 Billion in retail power purchases

9. Conservation Now Supplies Over 10% of the Region’s Electricity Service Needs

10. Conservation Was The Northwest’s Third Largest Source of Electricity Supply in 2000

11. Conservation Is Now The Second Largest Single Federal Power Firm Energy Resource The Amount of Energy Savings in Public Utility Service Territories from Conservation Programs, Codes and Standards Is Equivalent to Three Times the Annual Firm Energy Output of Bonneville Dam

12. Conservation Met Approximately 1/4 of the Regional Load Growth Between 1980 - 2002

13. Conservation Significantly Reduced Projected PNW Electricity Sales

14. Annual Conservation Savings Compared to Difference Between 1983 Medium-High Forecast and Actual Sales

15. Regional Conservation Acquisitions Have Also Helped Balance Loads & Resources (Creating Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride for the Energy Efficiency Service Industry) Response to NW Recession Response to West Coast Energy Crisis Response to “Restructuring Discussions”

16. What’s Left to Do How Big is the Region’s Conservation Resource? • Cost effective & achievable potential = 2800 aMW by 2025 • Remaining Potential Equivalent to Regional Accomplishments 1980 - 2001 • Could meet half of the region’s annual load growth under “medium” forecast

17. Cost-Effective and Achievable Conservation Could Meet Over 10% of PNW Loads in 2025(Medium Forecast)

18. Cost and Achievable Potential by Sector and End Use

19. Where Did All This Potential Come From? • New technology and/or lower cost of existing technologies • High performance T8 lighting, control optimization, compact fluorescent lighting • New applications • Sewage treatment, LED traffic signals • New end uses evaluated • Network PC control • AC/DC power converters • Commercial refrigerators, freezers, ice-makers

20. Combined With Higher Forecast of Future Market Prices!!!

21. Adjustments Since Last Plan • Reflect new codes & standards • Reflect conservation achieved • Incorporate new base line data • Commercial Building Stock Assessment • Penetration of existing programs (E-Star) • Census data, utility data, economic data • Higher Avoided Costs • New Technology

22. Total Residential Sector Cost-Effective & Realistically Achievable Potential = 1275 aMW

23. Residential Sector Achievable Resource Potential by Major End Use

24. Residential Sector Realistically Achievable Potential for Appliances

25. Residential Sector Realistically Achievable Potential for Water Heating

26. Residential Sector Realistically Achievable Potential for Space Conditioning

27. Total Commercial Sector Realistically Achievable Potential = 1105 aMW (Medium Forecast – 2025)

28. Total Commercial Sector Realistically Achievable Potential by Major End Use

29. Commercial Sector Realistically Achievable Potential for “Non-Buildings”(Medium Forecast - 2025) = 420 aMW

30. Commercial Sector Realistically Achievable Potential for Buildings = 685 aMW (Medium Forecast - 2025)

31. Industrial Sector Conservation Potential • Estimate of 5% of 2025 forecast loads • 350 aMW at 1.7 cents per kWh • Process controls, drive systems, lighting, refrigeration • Significant uncertainty around estimate due to ongoing changes in region’s industrial mix

32. Irrigated Agriculture Sector Realistically Achievable Potential = 80 aMW

33. How Much Should We Do?Derivation of Regional Conservation Targets • Used Portfolio Model to identify “least risk” and “least cost” level of conservation development • Separate annual targets for “lost opportunity” and “non-lost opportunity” resources • Model “worked up conservation supply curve” • Increased quantities came at increased costs, but reduce system risks

34. Regional Conservation Supply Curve

35. Conservation Development Levels Analyzed

36. Average Cost of Conservation by Level of Development

37. System Cost vs. Risk for Alternative Levels of Conservation Development 110 MWa/yr 160 MWa/yr 130 MWa/yr 145 MWa/yr 155 MWa/yr 150 MWa/yr

38. Changes in System Cost and Risk for Alternative Annual Conservation Targets

39. WECC Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reductions for Alternative Conservation Targets

40. Annual Conservation Development for Least Risk and Least Cost PlansPreliminary

41. Preliminary Annual Target in the Range of 130-150 MWa • Compared to “business-as-usual” case of 50 MWa/year, stabilizing conservation deployment at 150 MWa/year would: • Reduce NPV system cost by ~5% • Reduce regional “risk” by nearly ~10% • Reduce WECC carbon dioxide emissions by nearly 80 million tons over the next 20-years

42. Residential SectorPreliminaryAnnual Acquisitions Targets 2005 to 2010 = 75 aMW Annual Total Resource Cost = $155 Million Annual Total Resource Cost = $75 Million

43. Commercial Sector Preliminary Annual Acquisitions Targets2005 – 2010 = 55 aMW Annual Total Resource Cost = $70 million Annual Total Resource Cost = $50 million

44. Industrial Sector Preliminary Annual Acquisitions Targets2005 – 2010 = 15 aMW Annual Total Resource Cost = $20 million

45. Irrigated Agriculture Sector Preliminary Annual Acquisitions Targets2005 – 2010 = 5 aMW Annual Total Resource Cost = $10 million

46. Regional Conservation Resource Preliminary Annual Acquisition Targets 2005 – 2010 = 150 aMW

47. Total Resource Acquisition Cost = $380 million

48. To Meet Council’s Draft Plan Targets Regional Conservation Investments Will Have to Increase Significantly or Be More Efficient Regional Utility Conservation Acquisition Expenditures

49. Is 150 MWa/yr “Doable”? • It’s half the region’s load growth! • But it’s only about 1/3 more than we achieved from 2000 – 2002 • We did it before – now we have 20 years experience and infrastructure (e.g.,Alliance, federal standards, utility staff and programs) • There’s not that much out there! • Half is lost-opportunities which haven’t happened yet • Nearly two-thirds is new stuff • Getting it all means PNW must be 10% more efficient in 20 years • It will raise rates too much! • About 2/3 (or more) of cost of meeting target is already in rates • Additional cost ~$50 - $75 million/yr = less than 1% of regional utility revenue requirements

50. It’s Not Your Father’s OldsmobileLargestMeasures Are Still Untapped • Residential CFLs (19% of year 2025 potential) • High-Performance Commercial Lighting (13%) • Residential Heat Pump Water Heaters (7% ) • AC/DC Power Converters (5%) • Residential Clothes Washers (5%) • Sewage & Water Treatment (3%) • Fix Roof Top Economizers (3%) • Commercial Refrigerators, Freezers, Ice (2%) • Network PC Control (2%) • Low-Pressure Distribution (2%)