1 / 27

Sustainable Fossil Fuels: The Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring Energy

Sustainable Fossil Fuels: The Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring Energy. Mark Jaccard School of Resource and Environmental Management Simon Fraser University Vancouver, Canada January, 2006. Prescription and prediction of a sustainable energy system.

gamada
Download Presentation

Sustainable Fossil Fuels: The Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring Energy

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Sustainable Fossil Fuels:The Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring Energy Mark Jaccard School of Resource and Environmental Management Simon Fraser University Vancouver, Canada January, 2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  2. Prescription and prediction of a sustainable energy system Prescription – assume humanity should strive for: • A near-zero-emissions (indoor, urban, regional, global) energy system with low impacts and risks to land and water • Expansion of system to meet legitimate energy service needs of the global population Prediction – given this sustainability prescription: • How will major energy options fare this century and beyond? • What might such a system cost? • How could we achieve it? Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  3. Motive: a researcher’s reaction to strong assumptions Troubled by many recent books attributing major global problems to fossil fuels – war, economic chaos, environmental harm. “Civilization as we know it will come to an end sometime in this century unless we can find a way to live without fossil fuels.” (Goodstein, End of the Age of Oil, Norton, 2004). Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  4. What is the energy system? Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  5. Current trends 2000 2100 Total =: 429 EJ 6 GtC/year Total =: 1,390 EJ >20 GtC/year Population – 6 billion E/GDP - 13.5MJ/$ Population – 10.5 billion E/GDP – 6 MJ/$ Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  6. Sustainable secondary energy in 2100? Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  7. Challenges for nuclear and renewables Nuclear power (risk perception) • Aversion to extreme event risk (focus on outcomes) • Geopolitical risk Renewables (uncertain costs with scale-up) • Cost declines with R&D and cumulative production • Cost increases from scale-up related to low energy density, variable output and inconvenient location Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  8. Energy efficiency trend Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  9. Challenges to accelerating the efficiency trend Ignored costs of more efficient devices • risks of long-payback and new technologies • intangible costs of imperfect substitutes Mega-rebound from energy productivity • direct end-use rebound • innovation and commercialization rebound Policy barriers • ineffectiveness of information and subsidies • political challenge of higher prices and regulation Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  10. Fossil fuels:“the unusual suspect” How long can they last? • reserves and resources of coal, oil and natural gas • substitution between fuels and with other energy Can we use them cleanly? • history of cleaning up • new and old challenges – urban, regional, global Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  11. Hubbert’s peak Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  12. What consequence? Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  13. Oil sources and substitution Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  14. Secondary energy prices and primary energy substitution Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  15. electricity hydrogen natural gas coal, oil Zero-emission fossil fuel use combustion, reforming, gasification CO2, etc. Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  16. Geological storage of CO2 and other emissions Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  17. Carbon sources and sinks Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU Source: David Keith

  18. Zero-emission fossil fuels energy system Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  19. Criteria for predicting social preferences Projected cost (synthesis of numerous studies) • Depletion of higher quality resources and sites • Cost reduction through innovation • Cost reduction through greater production (economies-of-scale and economies-of-learning) Extreme event risk • Aversion to extreme event risk (focus on outcomes) Geopolitical risk • Energy supply security and political independence Path dependence • Not a decision criterion, but a long-term cost factor Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  20. Projected electricity cost Zero-emission generation of electricity (¢/kWh in $US 2000) (¢/kWh) PV-solar 12 10 coal combustion hydro natural gas 8 6 wind + storage nuclear biomass coal gasification 4 2 Assumed input prices are coal $1.5 – 3/GJ, natural gas $5 – 7/GJ, and biomass $2 – 5/GJ. Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  21. Projected hydrogen cost Zero-emission production of hydrogen ($/GJ in $US 2000) ($/GJ) 25 20 Nuclear electrolysis of water Wind/hydro electrolysis of water 15 10 biomass gasification coal gasification natural gas 5 Assumed input prices are coal $1.5 – 3/GJ, natural gas $5 – 7/GJ, and biomass $2 – 5/GJ. See electricity prices figure for electrolysis. Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  22. Incorporating all criteria The challenge for nuclear The limits for efficiency Renewables versus zero-emission fossil fuels Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  23. Ren. Ren. Ren. Ren. Modern Modern Modern Modern 16 EJ 16 EJ 450 450 Ren. Ren. Trad. Trad. 45 EJ 45 EJ Ren. Trad. Ren. Trad. Fossil Fossil 30 30 Fossil Fossil Nuclear Nuclear Fuels Fuels Fuels Fuels 9 EJ 9 EJ Nuclear Nuclear 358 EJ 358 EJ 680 680 40 40 Primary energy shares in a near-zero-emission future 2000 2000 2100 2100 Total = 429 EJ Total = 1,200 EJ Total = 1,200 EJ GHG Emissions = 6Gt/C GHG Emissions = 1~2 GHG Emissions = 1~2GtC GtC Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  24. Impacts for energy consumers Energy price increases • Electricity final price increase of 25-50% over the next 50 years (less than 1% per year) • Similar increases for clean burning gaseous (H2 or H2 mixed with natural gas) and liquid (biomass) fuels Rising energy cost share of household budgets • Increasing in typical OECD country from today’s 6% to 8% by about 2050 • Compare to 20% energy cost share of household budget in 1900 and 20% in developing countries today Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  25. Impacts for energy regulation Careful not to bias energy regulation against clean fossil fuels • Subsidies and regulations that only favour efficiency, renewables and nuclear Newer approaches • Multi-sector or economy-wide cap and trade (with safety valve) • Sector-specific regulated niche markets Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  26. Conclusion Energy system should be seen in terms of means and ends – not good guys and bad guys. The end is a clean, enduring and low cost energy system – with minimal extreme event and geopolitical risk. In the pursuit of this end, fossil fuels can be part of a sustainable energy system for a very long time. Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

  27. For details order online at www.cambridge.org Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU

More Related